Qarabag vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Qarabag are the clear favourite, their 74% chance of victory reflecting a potent home attack that averages 3.12 goals while conceding only 0.62 against weaker opposition. Sumqayit, on the road, struggles with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded to stronger teams, and their recent streak of four losses only deepens the imbalance. The model therefore picks a home win, the most likely outcome, and predicts an average of 3.2 goals in the match. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.8% probability, distinct from the expected total of three goals. The match’s probabilities are 74% home win, 17% draw, and 9% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 84.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 85.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.1%, Home win at 73.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 73.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.7%. Each selection carries its own probability, and the model’s edge is evident in the high likelihood of a home victory and a 2-0 finish.

The win extends Qarabag’s impressive run, with a 5-0 triumph over Sumqayıt confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 73.5% probability and proved correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, given an 84.2% chance, also hit, as the match produced five goals. Qarabag’s dominant form at home - scoring an average of 3.12 goals and conceding only 0.62 - matched the model’s 74% probability of a home win. Sumqayıt’s away struggles, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, reinforced the forecast. All suggested picks were settled, with no misses.