This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.33
1.00
1.20
2.40
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.43
1.08
1.33
2.33
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.11
0.67
0.67
2.50
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals ↓
Karvan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.8%
7.1%
3.8%
1.5%
1
6.1%
13%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.7%
7.4%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 1.50 points better than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
MOIK
2.00
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 1.50 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
MOIK
1.00
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zira
1.33
Turan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Karvan
3.00
Şimal
3.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 2.00 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Qaradağ Lökbatan or Draw✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
43%
covers Qaradağ Lökbatan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan or Karvan✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
43%
covers Qaradağ Lökbatan + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Karvan✗ Miss
70.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
43%
covers Draw + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Qaradağ Lökbatan, so a minus line means Qaradağ Lökbatan give that many goals of a start and Karvan receive them. At -1, Qaradağ Lökbatan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Qaradağ Lökbatan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan -2
4.5%
Draw -2
8.8%
Karvan +2
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan -1
13.3%
Draw -1
16.6%
Karvan +1
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan +1
56.8%
Draw +1
20.7%
Karvan -1
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan +2
77.4%
Draw +2
13.4%
Karvan -2
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.64
0.71
0.43
0.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.33
0.60
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.42
0.67
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.44
0.00
0.33
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.27
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.43
1.86
0.14
0.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
0.67
0.60
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.81
0.67
0.67
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →