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Qaradağ Lökbatan vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 13/03/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Vs
38%
27%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qaradağ Lökbatan win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✗ Miss
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L30W03L11D20W11D23L12L01L22DH·SƏB03/12H·MOI11/12A·QAB19/12H·ZAQ24/12H·CƏB31/01A·MIN07/02A·BAK14/02A·DIF20/02H·IMI28/02A·MOI06/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.501.691.191.001.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.281.561.501.501.001.62
vs Weaker (12)1.501.422.000.671.002.17
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L22D50W20W33D02L31W11D02L32WH·QAB28/11A·ZAQ13/12H·MIN19/12A·BAK24/12H·DIF30/01A·IMI06/02H·MOI13/02A·CƏB19/02A·QAB28/02H·ZAQ07/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.501.671.271.871.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.601.651.361.361.892.00
vs Weaker (10)2.101.202.501.001.831.33
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.3%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
06.1%6.2%5.4%2.6%1.0%
16.5%12%8.2%4.0%1.5%
25.8%8.6%6.3%3.1%1.1%
33.0%4.4%3.2%1.6%0.6%
41.1%1.7%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 0.85 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 0.96 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 0.26 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L00D10W11D10W12L01L21WH·SƏB03/12H·MOI11/12A·QAB19/12H·ZAQ24/12H·CƏB31/01A·MIN07/02A·BAK14/02A·DIF20/02H·IMI28/02A·MOI06/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.880.500.640.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.610.610.700.700.500.50
vs Weaker (12)1.000.831.170.170.831.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W20W23L00D31W00D00D12LH·QAB28/11A·ZAQ13/12H·MIN19/12A·BAK24/12H·DIF30/01A·IMI06/02H·MOI13/02A·CƏB19/02A·QAB28/02H·ZAQ07/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.570.730.670.870.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.800.700.730.730.890.67
vs Weaker (10)0.800.300.750.500.830.17
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W02L11D10W00D13L00D00D01LH·SƏB03/12H·MOI11/12A·QAB19/12H·ZAQ24/12H·CƏB31/01A·MIN07/02A·BAK14/02A·DIF20/02H·IMI28/02A·MOI06/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.810.690.360.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.670.940.800.800.501.12
vs Weaker (12)0.500.580.830.500.170.67
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D40W00D10W02L00D11D02L20WH·QAB28/11A·ZAQ13/12H·MIN19/12A·BAK24/12H·DIF30/01A·IMI06/02H·MOI13/02A·CƏB19/02A·QAB28/02H·ZAQ07/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.930.930.601.001.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.800.950.640.641.001.33
vs Weaker (10)1.300.901.750.501.001.17
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
QL wins
0
Draws
2
KAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qaradağ Lökbatan vs Karvan · H/A from QL
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/24HQL Vs Karvan3-0
11/09/24AKarvan Vs QL1-0
18/04/24AKarvan Vs QL0-1
15/02/24HQL Vs Karvan0-1
25/10/23AKarvan Vs QL1-2

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/25AMOIK Vs QL2-2
28/02/25HQL Vs Imisli FK0-1
20/02/25ADifai Ağsu Vs QL2-1
14/02/25ABaku Sportinq Vs QL3-2
07/02/25AMingəçevir Vs QL1-1
31/01/25HQL Vs Cəbrayıl2-0
24/12/24HQL Vs Zaqatala1-1
19/12/24AQabala Vs QL3-0
11/12/24HQL Vs MOIK3-0
03/12/24HQL Vs Səbail0-2

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25HKAR Vs Zaqatala3-2
28/02/25AQabala Vs KAR2-0
19/02/25ACəbrayıl Vs KAR1-1
13/02/25HKAR Vs MOIK3-1
06/02/25AImisli FK Vs KAR2-0
30/01/25HKAR Vs Difai Ağsu3-3
24/12/24ABaku Sportinq Vs KAR0-2
19/12/24HKAR Vs Mingəçevir5-0
13/12/24AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2
28/11/24HKAR Vs Qabala0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD1.54
HomeLWDWL1.69
AwayLDLLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%33%
AVG goals2.562.732.38
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.401.651.12
Conceded1.161.081.25
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.71
HomeLWDWW1.83
AwayDWLDL1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %51%57%45%
AVG goals3.042.783.32
Over 1.5 %71%65%77%
Over 2.5 %49%48%50%
Over 3.5 %38%35%41%
Scored1.711.571.86
Conceded1.331.221.45
BTTS44%39%50%
Clean Sheet29%39%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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