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Qaradağ Lökbatan vs MOIK Result & Analysis

Date: 11/12/2024
Time: 10:00
Final 3-0
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qaradağ Lökbatan win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK win✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L05L04L03L00D23L30W42W12L02LA·KAR11/09H·QAB19/09A·ZAQ26/09A·CƏB02/10H·MIN16/10H·BAK25/10H·KAR30/10H·DIF06/11A·IMI27/11H·SƏB03/12
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.272.001.251.071.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.181.291.331.671.000.88
vs Weaker (13)2.081.232.860.711.171.83
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D22D03L10W23L31W03L31W11DH·MIN13/09A·BAK19/09H·DIF25/09A·IMI03/10A·CƏB18/10H·KAR24/10H·ŞIM29/10A·QAB07/11H·ZAQ27/11A·SUM04/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.272.001.601.330.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.501.001.571.111.44
vs Weaker (14)2.361.002.881.621.670.17
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
0-0
8.0%
0-1
7.7%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
6.0%
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals ↓
MOIK goals →
01234
08.0%7.7%6.0%2.6%0.9%
18.0%13%8.1%3.6%1.2%
26.3%8.4%5.6%2.5%0.8%
32.9%3.8%2.5%1.1%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (down), columns = MOIK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 0.22 points worse than MOIK in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan and MOIK are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 0.04 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L03L02L00D01L20W30W02L00DA·KAR11/09H·QAB19/09A·ZAQ26/09A·CƏB02/10H·MIN16/10H·BAK25/10H·KAR30/10H·DIF06/11A·IMI27/11H·SƏB03/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.880.500.570.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.530.670.670.380.38
vs Weaker (13)1.000.621.140.290.831.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D02L02L10W01L10W00D11D01LH·MIN13/09A·BAK19/09H·DIF25/09A·IMI03/10A·CƏB18/10H·KAR24/10H·ŞIM29/10A·QAB07/11H·ZAQ27/11A·SUM04/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.530.800.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.380.750.290.860.440.67
vs Weaker (14)0.640.500.750.750.500.17
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L01L00D22D10W12L10W02LA·KAR11/09H·QAB19/09A·ZAQ26/09A·CƏB02/10H·MIN16/10H·BAK25/10H·KAR30/10H·DIF06/11A·IMI27/11H·SƏB03/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.701.120.750.500.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.760.671.000.620.50
vs Weaker (13)1.080.621.710.430.330.83
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D20W01L00D22D21W03L20W10WH·MIN13/09A·BAK19/09H·DIF25/09A·IMI03/10A·CƏB18/10H·KAR24/10H·ŞIM29/10A·QAB07/11H·ZAQ27/11A·SUM04/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.631.470.800.870.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.750.710.710.670.78
vs Weaker (14)1.710.502.120.881.170.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
QL wins
4
Draws
0
MOI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qaradağ Lökbatan vs MOIK · H/A from QL
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/24HQL Vs MOIK1-1
21/02/24AMOIK Vs QL2-2
02/11/23HQL Vs MOIK1-1
09/05/23AMOIK Vs QL0-0
05/12/22HQL Vs MOIK3-0

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/24HQL Vs Səbail0-2
27/11/24AImisli FK Vs QL2-1
06/11/24HQL Vs Difai Ağsu4-2
30/10/24HQL Vs Karvan3-0
25/10/24HQL Vs Baku Sportinq2-3
16/10/24HQL Vs Mingəçevir0-0
02/10/24ACəbrayıl Vs QL3-0
26/09/24AZaqatala Vs QL4-0
19/09/24HQL Vs Qabala0-5
11/09/24AKarvan Vs QL1-0

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/12/24ASumqayıt Vs MOI1-1
27/11/24HMOI Vs Zaqatala3-1
07/11/24AQabala Vs MOI3-0
29/10/24HMOI Vs Şimal3-1
24/10/24HMOI Vs Karvan2-3
18/10/24ACəbrayıl Vs MOI0-1
03/10/24AImisli FK Vs MOI3-0
25/09/24HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu2-2
19/09/24ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI0-0
13/09/24HMOI Vs Mingəçevir1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.68
HomeDLWWL1.77
AwayDLLLL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%54%42%
AVG goals2.322.651.96
Over 1.5 %62%69%54%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.341.621.04
Conceded0.981.040.92
BTTS34%35%33%
Clean Sheet44%42%46%
Corners---
Cards---
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.64
HomeLDLWW1.71
AwayDLWLD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.883.502.31
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %56%75%38%
Over 3.5 %32%50%15%
Scored1.682.041.35
Conceded1.201.460.96
BTTS46%67%27%
Clean Sheet38%25%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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