QPR is coming off a win and has been in decent form at home, scoring an average of 2.08 goals per game and conceding 1.42. Bolton, meanwhile, has been on a 4-game winning run, but its away form is less convincing, scoring 1 goal per game and conceding the same amount. The model's selection for the match result is a home win, with a 50% probability of QPR taking the three points.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 12.1% probability. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has an 80% probability of occurring, with an 8% edge.
In terms of winning probabilities, QPR has a 50% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 24% chance of losing to Bolton. The suggested picks are an Over 1.5 goals selection (80%), a QPR win (50%), a draw (26%), a Bolton win (24%), and an Over 2.5 goals selection is not present but the Over 1.5 goals selection is the only one listed.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for QPR, failed to materialise as the match ended 0-0, a draw that extended QPR’s recent run of a draw and left Bolton unbeaten in five outings. The model’s call was wrong, with a 50% probability of a QPR victory. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 97%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.3%, and Under 5.5 hit at 92.4%. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the low-scoring outcome predicted by the model’s high-probability under-goal selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
QPR win✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.89
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
888Sport
1.91
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.59
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.83
Betano
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Bolton win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.86
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.08
BetVictor
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
QPR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.57
1.80
1.67
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.33
1.92
1.42
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.17
2.07
1.33
1.13
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.42
2.18
1.64
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.73
1.75
0.50
1.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.0%
@ 1.28+6.7%
Under 1.5
20.0%
@ 3.51-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.90+6.0%
Under 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.89-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Unibet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
@ 3.18+4.1%
Under 3.5
66.4%
@ 1.33-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
10Bet
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
@ 1.76+5.4%
No
41.9%
@ 1.97-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
No
Unibet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.39+5.1%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.81+4.0%
1-0
8.3%@ 6.92+1.9%
2-0
8.3%@ 8.58+3.1%
0-0 ✓
6.5%@ 9.95+2.0%
1-2
6.4%@ 11.80+2.6%
3-1
5.7%@ 13.85+2.4%
2-2
5.6%@ 13.66+2.4%
QPR goals ↓
Bolton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.2%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.3%
12%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.7%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.9%
5.7%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.1%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = QPR goals (down), columns = Bolton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
QPR is 0.26 points better than Bolton in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
QPR is 0.38 goals better than Bolton in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
QPR is 0.18 goals better than Bolton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.77).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
QPR
For 4.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bolton
For 4.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
QPR
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.1
11.2
3.6
3.8
3.4
20.8
21.3
20.3
vs Stronger (9)
11.4
9.0
13.4
2.9
2.8
3.0
21.4
19.8
22.8
vs Similar (41)
9.9
9.2
10.7
3.8
4.0
3.5
20.6
21.6
19.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
46%
58%
54%
58%
50%
42%
46%
38%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
46%
42%
50%
58%
54%
62%
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.7
3.5
4.0
2.9
22.2
21.6
22.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
10.7
11.3
9.9
3.7
4.3
3.0
22.2
21.7
22.9
vs Weaker (19)
9.7
10.0
9.3
3.2
3.6
2.8
22.3
21.6
23.0
% over line
56%
60%
52%
46%
62%
29%
56%
40%
74%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
54%
38%
71%
44%
60%
26%
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.3%
@ 1.83+2.7%
Under 9.5
46.7%
@ 1.88-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.0%
@ 1.57-6.7%
Under 3.5
48.0%
@ 2.23+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.5%
@ 1.90+6.7%
Under 21.5
46.5%
@ 1.67-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.67
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
QPR or Draw✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.1%
50%
26%
24%
covers QPR + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
QPR or Bolton✗ Miss
74.3%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.1%
50%
26%
24%
covers QPR + Bolton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Bolton✓ Hit
49.9%
Avg Implied 50.1% · @ 1.87
Edge
-0.2%
50%
26%
24%
covers Draw + Bolton
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.90
SBO
1.88
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
QPR over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.7%
@ 1.18+3.9%
Under
17.3%
@ 4.39-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.35
QPR over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.4%
@ 1.93+3.9%
Under
47.6%
@ 1.81-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
888Sport
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.82
Unibet
1.81
QPR over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.8%
@ 3.90+1.9%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.22-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.02
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
QPR over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 8.80-0.4%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.04+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.50
1xBet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Bolton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.9%
@ 1.44+4.5%
Under
31.1%
@ 2.61-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Bolton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.6%
@ 3.21+3.5%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.32-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Under
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Bolton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 8.36+0.2%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.05-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bolton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 22.50-1.2%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to QPR, so a minus line means QPR give that many goals of a start and Bolton receive them. At -1, QPR must win by two or more to land; a one-goal QPR win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (QPR)Actual: Bolton
QPR -2
12.5%
@ 6.97-0.4%
Draw -2
15.6%
@ 5.30-1.3%
Bolton +2
71.9%
@ 1.28+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Handicap -1 (QPR)Actual: Bolton
QPR -1
28.1%
@ 3.31+1.1%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.58-3.0%
Bolton +1
49.9%
@ 1.86+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (QPR)Actual: QPR
QPR +1
75.8%
@ 1.24+3.3%
Draw +1
14.2%
@ 5.33-2.6%
Bolton -1
10.0%
@ 8.40-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Handicap +2 (QPR)Actual: QPR
QPR +2
90.0%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Draw +2
6.9%
@ 10.88-1.5%
Bolton -2
3.1%
@ 21.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
Unibet
19.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
QPR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.87
0.53
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.71
1.00
0.58
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.13
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.42
0.91
0.55
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.00
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.37-0.7%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 2.93+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.73-2.0%
Under 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.41+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.87
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 6.88-2.3%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.07+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.8%
@ 1.80-8.8%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.93+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
QPR over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 4.98-8.4%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.14+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
QPR over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 13.00-5.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bolton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.9%
@ 2.47+4.2%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.50-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Bolton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 8.58+1.7%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.04-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Bolton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 35.00-97.7%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
QPR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.93
1.13
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
2.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.62
0.92
0.83
0.50
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.77
1.27
0.93
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.00
1.27
1.09
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.36
1.25
0.50
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.7%
Under 0.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.14
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.07
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.8%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
1.27
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.0%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.8%
1.24
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.8%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.3%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
74.2%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
1.31
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
QPR
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Smyth25%
Koki Saito25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Jimmy Dunne20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Clarke-Salter50%
Ronnie Edwards40%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Ilias Chair0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tariq Lamptey33%
Harvey Vale25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Ronnie Edwards20%
Amadou Salif Mbengue20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harvey Vale50%
Richard Kone33%
Kwame Poku25%
Alfie Lloyd25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Bolton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Dalby40%
Thierry Gale20%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
J. Sheehan0%
John McAtee0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Hardie33%
Akin Famewo20%
J. Sheehan20%
John McAtee20%
Thierry Gale20%
Gaizka Larrazabal20%
Chris Forino20%
S. Dalby0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
John McAtee20%
Thierry Gale20%
S. Dalby0%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
J. Sheehan0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Sheehan40%
John McAtee40%
S. Iling-Junior25%
S. Dalby20%
Thierry Gale20%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
QPR's squad is €54m more valuable than Bolton's (€71m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
QPR's attack is €25m more valuable than Bolton's (€29m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
QPR's midfield is €11m more valuable than Bolton's (€15m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
QPR's defence is €18m more valuable than Bolton's (€27m vs €9m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston