The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Middlesbrough, 27% for a draw and 31% for QPR. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% probability. QPR, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded, while Middlesbrough, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 scored and 0.75 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.9% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (95.9% with no edge), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8% with a 1% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.7% with a 6% edge) and Under 5.5 (90.2%). QPR’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Middlesbrough comes off a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
QPR win
32.3%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.28
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.25
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.45
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Unibet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Middlesbrough win
40.7%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.12
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
QPR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.53
1.60
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.40
1.33
2.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.28
1.58
1.33
1.08
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.43
0.64
1.75
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.23
1.70
0.70
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.62
0.75
0.50
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.7%
@ 1.24+4.8%
Under 1.5
20.3%
@ 3.72-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.09
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Betano
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.80+2.9%
Under 2.5
44.6%
@ 1.99-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.0%
@ 2.91+0.9%
Under 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.38-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
59.5%
@ 1.65+3.3%
No
40.5%
@ 2.12-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
No
1xBet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.27+5.6%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.23+3.5%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.28+3.5%
0-1
7.3%@ 8.04+1.8%
0-0
6.7%@ 10.18+2.3%
0-2
6.6%@ 10.31+2.2%
1-0
6.3%@ 10.08+1.9%
2-2
6.0%@ 11.94+2.3%
QPR goals ↓
Middlesbrough goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.3%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.3%
13%
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
7.8%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.3%
3.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = QPR goals (down), columns = Middlesbrough goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
QPR is 0.41 points worse than Middlesbrough in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
QPR is 0.16 goals worse than Middlesbrough in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
QPR is 0.59 goals worse than Middlesbrough in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
QPR is 13.5 percentage points worse than Middlesbrough in terms of average possession (46% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
QPR
For 5.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Middlesbrough
For 5.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
QPR
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.1
11.0
3.6
3.7
3.6
20.7
21.2
20.1
vs Stronger (9)
11.4
9.0
13.4
2.9
2.8
3.0
21.4
19.8
22.8
vs Similar (41)
9.7
9.1
10.3
3.8
3.9
3.7
20.5
21.5
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
48%
56%
54%
56%
52%
42%
48%
36%
% under line
48%
52%
44%
46%
44%
48%
58%
52%
64%
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
12.3
9.7
3.6
3.1
4.1
21.7
22.0
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.9
12.6
9.3
3.8
3.2
4.3
22.0
21.8
22.2
vs Weaker (13)
11.0
11.3
10.7
3.2
2.8
3.6
21.0
22.3
19.9
% over line
60%
79%
42%
54%
46%
62%
46%
42%
50%
% under line
40%
21%
58%
46%
54%
38%
54%
58%
50%
This opponent (QPR) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.0%
@ 1.74-2.4%
Under 9.5
49.0%
@ 1.99+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.7%
@ 1.83+4.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
@ 1.83-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.5%
Under 21.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
QPR or Draw
54.7%
Avg Implied 55.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
-1.0%
32%
27%
41%
covers QPR + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
QPR or Middlesbrough
74.6%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.28
Edge
+1.4%
32%
27%
41%
covers QPR + Middlesbrough
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Draw or Middlesbrough
70.7%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.5%
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Middlesbrough
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
QPR over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
@ 1.32+4.9%
Under
25.2%
@ 3.08-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
10Bet
3.00
QPR over/under 1.5
Over
40.1%
@ 2.64+4.9%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.44-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
QPR over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
@ 6.47+1.8%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.08-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.05
Under
Betano
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
QPR over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
@ 16.00-0.8%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5
Over
82.7%
@ 1.19+4.8%
Under
17.3%
@ 4.19-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5
Over
52.3%
@ 1.99+5.4%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.76-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5
Over
25.7%
@ 4.16+3.3%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.20-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.26
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Middlesbrough over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
@ 9.04-0.1%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.03+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.60
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to QPR, so a minus line means QPR give that many goals of a start and Middlesbrough receive them. At -1, QPR must win by two or more to land; a one-goal QPR win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (QPR)
QPR -2
4.8%
@ 16.50-0.7%
Draw -2
8.7%
@ 9.50-0.9%
Middlesbrough +2
86.5%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (QPR)
QPR -1
13.5%
@ 6.93+0.5%
Draw -1
15.8%
@ 4.96-2.3%
Middlesbrough +1
70.7%
@ 1.31+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Handicap +1 (QPR)
QPR +1
54.7%
@ 1.69+1.8%
Draw +1
20.4%
@ 3.80-3.2%
Middlesbrough -1
24.9%
@ 3.81+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Handicap +2 (QPR)
QPR +2
75.1%
@ 1.22+1.3%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 5.87-1.3%
Middlesbrough -2
10.9%
@ 8.30+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Marathonbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
QPR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.68
0.67
0.58
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.64
0.14
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.41
0.80
0.10
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.5%
@ 1.35+2.5%
Under 0.5
28.5%
@ 3.00-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 2.60-1.3%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.44+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Unibet
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 6.43-1.7%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.1%
@ 2.21+2.0%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.61-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
QPR over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
@ 7.28-0.1%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.06+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
QPR over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.6%
@ 1.86-2.5%
Under
52.4%
@ 1.86+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.86
Unibet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
@ 5.37-2.6%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.12+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Unibet
5.30
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 11.00-5.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
QPR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.93
1.07
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
1.00
2.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.60
0.92
0.75
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.79
0.50
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.82
0.90
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.20+0.3%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 4.06-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.4%
@ 1.98-0.8%
Under 1.5
53.6%
@ 1.77+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Under
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.6%
@ 4.01-3.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
@ 1.21+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.88
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.6%
@ 1.83-0.2%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.89+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
QPR over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
@ 5.04-2.5%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
QPR over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
@ 10.75-5.2%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.9%
@ 1.57-4.1%
Under
45.1%
@ 2.27+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.24
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.3%
@ 3.70-3.6%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.23+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 8.50-5.7%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.05+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Under 6.5
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 5.5
90.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-0.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+0.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
+0.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
+1.7%
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+1.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+2.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
83.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-1.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
82.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
+4.8%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+3.6%
Under 5.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+4.8%
Under 4.5
79.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
-3.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-
+3.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+0.3%
Home +2 handicap
75.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+1.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+4.9%
Over 2.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
+1.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
74.3%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-3.3%
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
1.36
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.31
-
-
+4.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.5%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
+2.5%
Draw or Away
70.7%
1.32
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-0.5%
Away +1 handicap
70.7%
1.31
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+1.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
QPR
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Smyth25%
Koki Saito25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Jimmy Dunne20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Clarke-Salter50%
Ronnie Edwards40%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Ilias Chair0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tariq Lamptey33%
Harvey Vale25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Ronnie Edwards20%
Amadou Salif Mbengue20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harvey Vale50%
Richard Kone33%
Kwame Poku25%
Alfie Lloyd25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Middlesbrough
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Will Lankshear67%
Jeremy Sarmiento40%
Alfie Jones25%
Aidan Morris25%
Kyle Joseph17%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Lankshear50%
Alfie Jones25%
Myles Peart-Harris25%
Neto Borges17%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Berhalter33%
Riley McGree25%
Morgan Whittaker20%
Jeremy Sarmiento20%
Luke Ayling17%
Neto Borges0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Will Lankshear0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Morgan Whittaker40%
Will Lankshear33%
Leo Castledine20%
Sebastian Berhalter17%
Kyle Joseph17%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Luke Ayling0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Radek Vitek0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
QPR's squad is €71m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€71m vs €142m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
QPR's attack is €45m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€29m vs €74m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
QPR's midfield is €12m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€15m vs €27m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
QPR's defence is €14m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€27m vs €41m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston