The encounter between Queen of the South and Cove Rangers is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities show 38% for a Cove Rangers victory, 32% for Queen of the South, and 30% for a draw, making the result uncertain. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14.2% probability, a tidy draw that reflects both teams’ modest scoring output.
Queen of the South, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.43 goals scored and concedes 2.0. Cove Rangers, on the road against a weaker opponent, scores 0.25 and concedes 1.25. Both sides have struggled recently, Queen of the South losing five straight and Cove Rangers coming off a defeat.
The model’s selections are dominated by low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 4.5 (89.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.6%), and Under 5.5 cards (86.3%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen of the South win
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers win
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Queen of the South
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
1.68
0.91
1.45
0.91
1.91
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.15
0.43
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.21
1.00
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.54
1.25
1.17
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.9%
Queen of the South goals ↓
Cove Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
9.8%
7.1%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.8%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.9%
7.6%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen of the South goals (down), columns = Cove Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Queen of the South is 0.22 points better than Cove Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Queen of the South is 0.22 goals better than Cove Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Queen of the South is 0.22 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Queen of the South
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen of the South
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
6.0
-
6.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
20.0
-
20.0
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
6.0
-
6.0
0.5
0.0
0.6
20.0
-
20.0
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
10.1
2.5
3.2
2.0
22.2
22.4
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.1
9.7
2.3
2.7
1.9
22.0
21.9
22.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.2
7.0
11.0
3.6
5.5
2.3
22.8
24.0
21.8
% over line
46%
33%
58%
34%
50%
19%
51%
44%
58%
% under line
54%
67%
42%
66%
50%
81%
49%
56%
42%
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.6%
Under 21.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Queen of the South or Draw
62.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
30%
38%
covers Queen of the South + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South or Cove Rangers
70.1%
Avg Implied -
32%
30%
38%
covers Queen of the South + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cove Rangers
67.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
30%
38%
covers Draw + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Queen of the South, so a minus line means Queen of the South give that many goals of a start and Cove Rangers receive them. At -1, Queen of the South must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Queen of the South win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Queen of the South)
Queen of the South -2
4.5%
Draw -2
9.5%
Cove Rangers +2
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Queen of the South)
Queen of the South -1
13.9%
Draw -1
18.5%
Cove Rangers +1
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Queen of the South)
Queen of the South +1
62.3%
Draw +1
20.4%
Cove Rangers -1
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Queen of the South)
Queen of the South +2
82.7%
Draw +2
11.3%
Cove Rangers -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queen of the South
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.05
0.36
0.82
0.64
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.31
0.29
1.14
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.58
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queen of the South
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.27
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.85
0.14
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Queen of the South and Cove Rangers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Queen of the South and Cove Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Queen of the South and Cove Rangers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Airdrie United