Queen's Park are the clear favorites, with a 51% chance of triumph, while a draw sits at 25% and an Arbroath win at 24%. The model expects three goals on average, yet the most likely total is two, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.8% chance. Queen's Park have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.93 at home against similar opposition, whereas Arbroath, on the road, have netted 1.57 and allowed 1.86. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 83.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 82.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.0% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 73.3%, and Over 2.5 cards at 71.3%. The home side’s recent form shows a draw, while Arbroath are on a two-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The upset came as Queen's Park, the pre-match favourite with a 51% probability of victory, fell short, losing 1-3 to Arbroath. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The favourite’s 51% chance of a home win was not realised, while the 24% chance of an away win materialised. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 81% probability. Queen's Park, after a draw in their last match, had a mixed run of DLLLW, whereas Arbroath, on a two-game winning streak, finished with WWDLW. The match produced three goals, exceeding the most likely total of two.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen's Park win✗ Miss
51.2%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.80
Edge
+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.35
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied 40.3% · @ 2.26
Edge
-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Queen's Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.80
1.40
2.07
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.20
0.00
4.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.72
1.50
1.93
1.09
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.17
1.94
0.69
1.43
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
0.67
1.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.40
1.25
1.00
1.57
1.86
vs Weaker (9)
2.33
1.11
3.50
0.25
1.40
1.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.78+5.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.93-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Queen's Park goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.1%
12%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.7%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
5.0%
5.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's Park goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Queen's Park is 0.34 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Queen's Park is 0.28 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Queen's Park is 0.19 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Queen's Park
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
For 5.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen's Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
8.1
12.6
2.6
2.8
2.3
19.9
20.4
19.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.0
8.8
11.2
3.5
3.8
3.0
20.6
20.8
20.4
vs Similar (24)
9.2
7.0
11.5
2.1
2.2
2.0
20.9
20.6
21.2
vs Weaker (15)
12.0
8.8
15.2
2.8
3.1
2.4
18.0
19.7
16.3
% over line
55%
32%
79%
34%
42%
25%
34%
37%
32%
% under line
45%
68%
21%
66%
58%
75%
66%
63%
68%
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
11.6
Queens Park
11.4
Morton
11.2
Airdrie United
10.6
ST Johnstone
10.5
Dunfermline
10.5
Arbroath
10.2
Partick
10.2
Ayr
10.0
Stenhousemuir
9.4
Raith Rvs
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Morton
4.7
Ayr Utd
4.7
Raith Rvs
4.0
Partick
4.0
Ayr
4.0
ST Johnstone
3.9
Queens Park
3.8
Dunfermline
3.6
Stenhousemuir
3.6
Airdrie United
3.5
Ross County
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Raith Rvs
22.4
Ayr
22.4
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Stenhousemuir
21.7
Ross County
20.7
Airdrie United
20.4
Partick
20.0
Dunfermline
19.9
Arbroath
19.7
Queens Park
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.7%
Under 9.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.4%
Under 21.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.80
0.64
0.79
0.64
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.88
0.38
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.80
1.27
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.92
0.86
1.14
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.06
0.31
0.50
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.87
0.75
0.50
0.71
1.29
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.67
2.00
0.25
0.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Queen's Park's squad is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Johnstone
Partick
Dunfermline
Morton
Ross County
Airdrie United
Raith Rovers
Queens Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South