Queen's Park vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Queen's Park’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.62 goals per match, while Dunfermline’s away form shows a slightly better barrier, allowing only 1.09 goals. The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance, a draw 32% and a home win 25%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. Queen’s Park averages 0.92 goals scored at home against similar opposition, and Dunfermline averages 1.27 goals scored away. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 with 83.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.2% and Under 5.5 cards at 72.8%. The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair, with the model’s pick pointing to a narrow victory for Dunfermline.

The pre-match favourite, Dunfermline, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction of an away win. Queen’s Park’s recent form, a string of draws and a win, had them coming off a 0-0 draw with Partick, while Dunfermline entered on a win over Raith Rovers. The model’s pick of an away win, with a 43% probability, proved incorrect. The model’s selection of Under 3.5, at 83%, was a hit. The most likely total of two goals, at 28%, was also missed, as the game produced exactly two goals but settled as a draw.