PythiaFootballBETA
Dunfermline are tipped to edge Queen's Park, the model’s pick for an away win, with a 42% chance compared to 28% for a home victory and 30% for a draw. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance, even though the final result will be a 0-2 away win.
Queen's Park, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Dunfermline, on the road, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded against comparable opposition, suggesting a slightly stronger attack and a more resilient defence.
The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 83.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.7%, Under 3.5 total goals at 78.4% (hit), Under 25.5 fouls at 74.8%, Under 10.5 corners at 74.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.5%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.7%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
The match saw Dunfermline extend their recent form, turning a win into a decisive victory. The final score was 0-2, confirming the away win that the model had picked with a 42% probability. The model’s selection was correct, and the total goals fell well below the expected 2.4, with the Under 3.5 market hitting as the model predicted at 78.4%. Queen’s Park’s home form had been a mix of draws and losses, while Dunfermline’s away form included a recent win, setting the stage for the outcome. All suggested picks settled as forecast, and the model’s overall predictions were largely accurate.
Queen's Park| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 8.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.77 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Dunfermline| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.10 | 1.71 | 0.94 | 1.46 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.56 | 1.19 | 1.64 | 1.07 | 1.46 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Dunfermline goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 14% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Queen's ParkDunfermlineQueen's Park| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 12.0 | - | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 18.0 | - | 18.0 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 12.0 | - | 12.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 18.0 | - | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (45) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | - | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% |
| % under line | 0% | - | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 100% |
Dunfermline| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 24.4 | 24.3 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 13.0 | 13.0 | - | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | 24.0 | 24.0 | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 24.5 | 24.3 | 24.6 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 17% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 14% | 23% | 75% | 71% | 80% |
| % under line | 83% | 86% | 80% | 82% | 86% | 77% | 25% | 29% | 20% |
Queen's Park| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 5.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.31 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Dunfermline| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.52 | 0.70 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Queen's Park| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Dunfermline| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.12 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.04 | 0.48 | 1.21 | 0.43 | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/09/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/04/24 | A | 0-0 |
Queen's Park| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 24/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
Dunfermline| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  ST Johnstone | 48 | 103 | 60% | 2.1 | 87 | 34 | +53 | 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 29% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.8 | 83% | 22.5 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  Partick | 48 | 89 | 48% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 2.5 | 75% | 44% | 27% | 10.7 | 67% | 4.6 | 58% | 20.2 | 33% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Dunfermline | 48 | 74 | 44% | 1.5 | 69 | 49 | +20 | 2.5 | 73% | 44% | 25% | 7.0 | 8% | 4.8 | 83% | 23.9 | 67% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 |  Arbroath | 48 | 71 | 38% | 1.5 | 60 | 55 | +5 | 2.4 | 69% | 46% | 21% | 8.2 | 33% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.8 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 |  Morton | 48 | 50 | 21% | 1.0 | 48 | 66 | -18 | 2.4 | 71% | 44% | 25% | 10.2 | 58% | 4.5 | 50% | 23.4 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 |  Ross County | 48 | 49 | 25% | 1.0 | 50 | 75 | -25 | 2.6 | 69% | 50% | 29% | 8.0 | 25% | 3.9 | 58% | 22.8 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 7 |  Airdrie United | 50 | 47 | 20% | 0.9 | 46 | 67 | -21 | 2.3 | 64% | 46% | 22% | 10.6 | 67% | 3.3 | 50% | 18.3 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 |  Raith Rovers | 36 | 45 | 33% | 1.2 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 2.4 | 75% | 42% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | RR Raith Rvs | 36 | 45 | 33% | 1.2 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 2.4 | 75% | 42% | 19% | 9.6 | 47% | 4.3 | 56% | 21.0 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 |  Queens Park | 36 | 41 | 25% | 1.1 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 2.3 | 67% | 39% | 19% | 8.7 | 39% | 4.1 | 69% | 21.8 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Queen's Park | 36 | 41 | 25% | 1.1 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 2.3 | 67% | 39% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | A Ayr | 36 | 39 | 22% | 1.1 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 17% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.5 | 69% | 22.4 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 |  Ayr Utd | 36 | 39 | 22% | 1.1 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 |  Alloa Athletic | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 15 |  Stenhousemuir | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 |  Queen of the South | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |