Racing FC Union Luxembourg face AS Jeunesse Esch with the model favouring an away win. The prediction assigns a 43% chance to a victory for Jeunesse, 30% to a home win and 27% to a draw. The average number of goals expected is 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% chance. Racing, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Jeunesse, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries a 78.1% probability. Recent form suggests Racing are coming off a draw, while Jeunesse arrive after a win.
Results analysis
Racing FC Union Luxembourg’s recent run of DLWWW ended with a 0-3 loss to AS Jeunesse Esch, the latter extending a winning streak after a 5-2 victory. The model’s pre-match favourite was an away win at 43 percent, and the prediction proved correct as the final score confirmed an away triumph. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 78.1 percent, hit as the match produced three goals. No other selections were listed. The outcome matched the model’s expectations, with the favoured result and the sole selection both realised.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Racing FC Union Luxembourg winâś— Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch winâś“ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.37
1.33
1.87
1.53
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.50
1.35
1.42
1.83
1.57
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.88
1.06
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.33
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.18
1.64
1.00
1.45
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
6.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-0
7.2%
0-2
7.2%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals ↓
AS Jeunesse Esch goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
8.2%
7.2%
3.7%
1.4%
1
6.5%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.8%
7.4%
5.7%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals (down), columns = AS Jeunesse Esch goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.20
F91 Dudelange
2.03
Swift Hesperange
2.03
Progres Niederkorn
1.83
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
UNA Strassen
1.47
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.30
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.27
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.27
Wiltz
1.10
Mondercange
1.07
US Rumelange
1.00
US Hostert
1.00
Fola Esch
0.94
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.94
Marisca Mersch
0.87
Schifflange
0.83
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 0.23 points worse than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Differdange 03
2.33
Swift Hesperange
2.20
US Rumelange
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.97
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.83
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.70
Union Titus Petange
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.53
Victoria Rosport
1.50
Wiltz
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.33
Marisca Mersch
1.33
Schifflange
1.20
Fola Esch
1.13
Mondercange
1.10
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.03
US Hostert
1.00
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 0.17 goals worse than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.77
US Hostert
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.17
F91 Dudelange
1.20
UNA Strassen
1.27
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.37
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.61
Wiltz
1.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
Mondercange
1.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.93
Schifflange
1.97
US Rumelange
2.00
Fola Esch
2.03
Marisca Mersch
2.07
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 0.57 goals worse than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.37).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.58
0.75
0.58
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
1.06
0.38
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.50
0.91
0.36
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.67
1.20
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.77
0.67
1.25
1.21
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.81
0.69
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.68
0.73
0.64
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Racing FC Union Luxembourg and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Racing FC Union Luxembourg and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar attack value (both €1m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Racing FC Union Luxembourg and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Racing FC Union Luxembourg and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →