PythiaFootballBETA
The clash between Racing FC Union Luxembourg and Swift Hesperange is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. Racing, who have been drawn from a recent draw, have averaged 1.46 goals for and 1.38 against in similar opposition at home, while Swift, after five straight defeats, have managed only 1.1 goals for and 2.0 against on the road. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high scoring affair, yet the most likely total is two, with a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability, a tidy draw that fits the balanced nature of the contest.
Home win probability stands at 40%, draw at 28%, and away win at 33%. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 96.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 95.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 90.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 87.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 81.7%, Over 4.5 cards at 80.1%, and Under 10.5 corners at 80.0%. Each of these picks carries its own probability, reflecting the high likelihood of a physically demanding match.
The match finished 1-0 in favour of Racing FC Union Luxembourg, a result that matched the model’s pre-match pick of a home win with a 40% probability. Racing’s recent form, a draw followed by three wins, gave the model confidence, while Swift Hesperange’s five-game losing streak made a victory unlikely. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total, with a 25% chance of exactly two goals, proved accurate as the final tally was indeed two. All suggested selections were settled, and the model’s call was correct. The outcome confirms the model’s assessment of Racing’s home advantage and Swift’s defensive struggles.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 2.33 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 1.70 | 0.85 | 1.46 | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.00 | 1.14 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Swift Hesperange goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 13% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Racing FC Union LuxembourgSwift HesperangeRacing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.5 | 7.5 | - | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 26.5 | 26.5 | - |
| vs Stronger (8) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 7.5 | 7.5 | - | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 26.5 | 26.5 | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | - | 8% | 8% | 8% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | - | 92% | 92% | 92% | 0% | 0% | - |
Swift Hesperange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 29.6 | 27.2 | 39.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (35) | 7.2 | 7.2 | - | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 27.2 | - |
| vs Weaker (15) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 39.0 | - | 39.0 |
| % over line | 20% | 25% | 0% | 10% | 16% | 4% | 80% | 75% | 100% |
| % under line | 80% | 75% | 100% | 90% | 84% | 96% | 20% | 25% | 0% |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.13 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.09 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.35 | 0.57 | 0.23 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.03 | 0.62 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.61 | 1.13 | 0.62 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 95.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 90.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 90.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 4.5 cards | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 80.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/24 | H | 2-5 | |
| 23/09/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/02/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/08/22 | A | 2-0 |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 07/12/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 5-2 | |
| 26/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 3-0 |
Swift Hesperange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/12/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/11/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Atert Bissen | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 27 | +43 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 37% | 8.6 | 40% | 6.6 | 100% | 26.0 | 80% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 65 | 63% | 2.2 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 2.8 | 70% | 50% | 40% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 28.5 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 60 | 63% | 2.0 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.2 | 80% | 25.3 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 4 |  UNA Strassen | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 2.8 | 70% | 53% | 37% | 7.8 | 0% | 5.6 | 60% | 28.2 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 5 |  F91 Dudelange | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 59 | 38 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 8.0 | 0% | 7.4 | 80% | 24.7 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 6 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 40 | 33% | 1.3 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 2.3 | 70% | 33% | 20% | 8.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 7 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 3.3 | 77% | 57% | 43% | 7.5 | 0% | 8.8 | 100% | 26.5 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 8 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 3.0 | 83% | 57% | 33% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.6 | 80% | 27.0 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 41% |
| 9 |  US Hostert | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 3.0 | 73% | 57% | 40% | 8.4 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 29.0 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 10 |  Victoria Rosport | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 2.8 | 73% | 60% | 27% | 9.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 60% | 25.0 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 11 |  Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 77% | 53% | 33% | 7.5 | 25% | 5.0 | 80% | 22.2 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 60% |
| 12 | Swift Hesperange | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 2.6 | 70% | 50% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 6.6 | 100% | 29.6 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 13 |  Jeunesse Canach | 31 | 32 | 29% | 1.0 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 2.4 | 58% | 48% | 29% | 8.2 | 40% | 5.6 | 80% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 14 |  Mamer | 31 | 30 | 26% | 1.0 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 3.0 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 10.3 | 67% | 6.8 | 75% | 30.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 15 |  Union Titus Petange | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 17% | 5.2 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 26.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 16 |  Rodange 91 | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 28 | 65 | -37 | 3.1 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 9.3 | 33% | 7.8 | 100% | 28.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 17 |  Résidence Walferdange | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 |  Wiltz | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |