Racing FC Union Luxembourg is the favourite to win this match, having recently been on a 4-game winning run, but Swift Hesperange's recent struggles will likely make this a closely contested encounter. The model predicts a home win, with a 49% probability, followed by a 26% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an away win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.3%. Racing FC Union Luxembourg has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.14 goals and conceding 1.14 goals per match against similar-strength opponents. Swift Hesperange, on the other hand, has struggled when away, scoring an average of 1.12 goals and conceding 1.5 goals per match against similar-strength opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 79.7%. The home win percentage is 49%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 25%. The model also suggests a Home win selection, with a probability of 49%, and an Away win selection, with a probability of 25%.
The win extends Racing FC Union Luxembourg's 5-game winning run, with the latest triumph coming against Swift Hesperange by a convincing 5-0 margin. The model correctly predicted a home win, which was the pre-match favourite with a 49% probability of occurrence. The model's selection, a home win, was the correct outcome.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.7%. The most likely score was 2-1, but the actual score was significantly higher. The expected total goals was 2.9, but the actual score was 5-0.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.60 | 1.79 | 1.43 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 0.33 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.17 | 1.30 | 2.08 | 1.08 | 2.27 | 1.55 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.70 | 0.86 | 1.93 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 1.59 | 0.56 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.54 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Swift Hesperange goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 12% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Swift Hesperange
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.5 | 7.5 | - | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 26.5 | 26.5 | - |
| vs Stronger (9) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (39) | 7.5 | 7.5 | - | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 26.5 | 26.5 | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | - | 8% | 8% | 8% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | - | 92% | 92% | 92% | 0% | 0% | - |
Swift Hesperange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 29.6 | 27.2 | 39.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (35) | 7.2 | 7.2 | - | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 27.2 | - |
| vs Weaker (15) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 39.0 | - | 39.0 |
| % over line | 20% | 25% | 0% | 10% | 16% | 4% | 80% | 75% | 100% |
| % under line | 80% | 75% | 100% | 90% | 84% | 96% | 20% | 25% | 0% |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.22 | 0.52 | 1.17 | 0.58 | 1.27 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | - | - | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.73 | 0.14 | 1.14 | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.41 | 1.05 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 96.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 89.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | -3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 4.5 cards | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 75.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/24 | H | 2-5 | |
| 23/09/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/02/23 | H | 1-3 |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
Swift Hesperange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 2-7 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |