This match between Racing FC Union Luxembourg and UN Kaerjeng 97 in the Luxembourg National Division is finely balanced, with the home side on a four-game winning run, but the away team having just come off a 4-2 win. The model predicts a home win, with a 37% chance of Racing FC Union Luxembourg emerging victorious, 35% for UN Kaerjeng 97, and 28% for a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13.4% of the time. Racing FC Union Luxembourg have averaged 2.6 goals at home, conceding 1.4, while UN Kaerjeng 97 have averaged 1.38 goals away, conceding 1.12. The model's selection is the home win, with a 37% chance. The model's other selections include Over 3.5 cards (90%), Under 21.5 fouls (80.6%), Over 1.5 (76.5%), Under 9.5 corners (73%), and Under 3.5 (71.2%).
Results analysis
The win extends Racing FC Union Luxembourg's run, their fourth in a row, after a 5-1 victory over UN Kaerjeng 97. This result was a significant departure from the model's expectations, with the final score well clear of the predicted total of 2.7 goals. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct with a probability of 37%. The model's pick was the favourite, as expected. The suggested picks included Over 1.5, which hit with a 76.5% probability, and Under 3.5, which missed with a 71.2% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied 49.7% · @ 1.82
Edge
-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.90
Dafabet
1.86
Betano
1.85
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.49
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
1xBet
3.52
UN Kaerjeng 97 win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.70
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Dafabet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.63
1.50
1.50
2.12
1.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
3.40
0.00
3.50
0.33
3.33
vs Similar (24)
2.21
1.29
1.75
1.17
2.67
1.42
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.53
1.71
1.79
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
1.64
1.67
1.67
0.88
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.44
1.75
1.88
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.5%
@ 1.20+0.6%
Under 1.5
23.5%
@ 3.78-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
10Bet
3.90
888Sport
3.80
Marathonbet
3.76
1xBet
3.76
Superbet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.8%
@ 1.69-3.7%
Under 2.5
49.2%
@ 2.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.8%
@ 2.71-5.0%
Under 3.5
71.2%
@ 1.38+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
888Sport
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.62-0.2%
No
43.8%
@ 2.09+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.63
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
No
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
888Sport
2.10
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.41+7.5%
2-1
8.4%@ 7.66+3.4%
1-2
8.1%@ 11.65+4.8%
1-0
8.0%@ 7.53+2.9%
0-0
7.9%@ 11.50+4.6%
0-1
7.6%@ 11.83+4.4%
2-0
6.3%@ 8.70+2.0%
0-2
5.9%@ 19.00+3.9%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals ↓
UN Kaerjeng 97 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
7.6%
5.9%
2.6%
0.9%
1
8.0%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.4%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.9%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals (down), columns = UN Kaerjeng 97 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atert Bissen
2.17
FC Differdange 03
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Wiltz
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.94
US Rumelange
0.61
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 0.07 points better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Hostert
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.92
US Rumelange
0.59
Wiltz
0.00
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 0.17 goals better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.89
US Rumelange
2.94
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 0.07 goals worse than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg is 15.0 percentage points better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of average possession (56% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
UN Kaerjeng 97
For 4.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 15.5 · Total 33.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
7.5
-
0.7
0.5
0.9
26.5
26.5
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
7.5
7.5
-
0.9
0.5
1.3
26.5
26.5
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
8%
8%
8%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
92%
92%
92%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
6.5
12.0
0.7
0.4
0.9
27.0
26.5
28.0
vs Stronger (22)
8.0
6.0
10.0
0.5
0.3
0.6
21.0
14.0
28.0
vs Similar (27)
10.5
7.0
14.0
0.9
0.6
1.2
39.0
39.0
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
8%
4%
12%
67%
50%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
92%
96%
88%
33%
50%
0%
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.7%
Under 9.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
90.7%
Under 3.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.6%
Under 21.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
0.71
0.93
1.31
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.60
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.54
0.83
0.67
1.67
0.42
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.64
0.86
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.69
0.38
1.00
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.79
0.57
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.80
0.00
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.75
0.92
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
1.07
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.07
0.67
1.00
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.75
1.38
0.88
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.5%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.2%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
+5.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
FD0 (16)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
6 previous meetings
4
RFU wins
2
Draws
0
UK9 wins
Head-to-head
Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · H/A from RFU
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
UNA Strassen
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
Résidence Walferdange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
F91 Dudelange
Etzella Ettelbruck
AS Jeunesse Esch
Swift Hesperange