This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.57
1.93
1.57
1.69
1.56
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
0.50
2.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.79
1.63
1.90
1.70
1.67
1.56
vs Weaker (7)
2.14
1.00
3.50
0.50
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.99+10.1%
Under 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.79-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.2%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
6.4%
0-0
6.1%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
Racing Ferrol goals ↓
Almeria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
8.0%
8.2%
4.9%
2.2%
1
4.9%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.6%
6.4%
5.8%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Racing Ferrol goals (down), columns = Almeria goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levante
1.88
Elche
1.83
Oviedo
1.78
Mirandes
1.78
Racing Santander
1.64
Almeria
1.59
Granada CF
1.55
Huesca
1.52
Eibar
1.38
Albacete
1.38
Sporting Gijon
1.33
Burgos
1.31
Cordoba
1.31
Cadiz
1.31
Malaga
1.26
Castellón
1.26
Deportivo La Coruna
1.26
Zaragoza
1.21
Eldense
1.07
Tenerife
0.86
Racing Ferrol
0.71
FC Cartagena
0.55
Racing Ferrol is 0.88 points worse than Almeria in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almeria
1.68
Levante
1.64
Racing Santander
1.57
Castellón
1.55
Granada CF
1.55
Mirandes
1.48
Elche
1.40
Cordoba
1.40
Huesca
1.38
Sporting Gijon
1.36
Albacete
1.36
Zaragoza
1.33
Deportivo La Coruna
1.33
Oviedo
1.33
Cadiz
1.31
Eibar
1.05
Eldense
1.05
Malaga
1.00
Burgos
0.98
Tenerife
0.83
FC Cartagena
0.79
Racing Ferrol
0.52
Racing Ferrol is 1.16 goals worse than Almeria in terms of goals scored per game (0.52 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elche
0.81
Eibar
0.98
Levante
1.00
Oviedo
1.00
Mirandes
1.00
Malaga
1.10
Burgos
1.14
Huesca
1.17
Cadiz
1.26
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Deportivo La Coruna
1.29
Granada CF
1.29
Tenerife
1.31
Racing Santander
1.32
Almeria
1.32
Albacete
1.36
Castellón
1.50
Zaragoza
1.50
Eldense
1.50
Cordoba
1.50
Racing Ferrol
1.52
FC Cartagena
1.86
Racing Ferrol is 0.21 goals worse than Almeria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Elche
62%
Castellón
57%
Cordoba
56%
Deportivo La Coruna
54%
Almeria
53%
Malaga
52%
Racing Santander
52%
Oviedo
52%
Granada CF
51%
Zaragoza
51%
Eibar
50%
Sporting Gijon
50%
Levante
49%
Burgos
49%
Tenerife
48%
Cadiz
48%
Racing Ferrol
48%
Eldense
46%
Mirandes
45%
Huesca
44%
Albacete
43%
FC Cartagena
40%
Racing Ferrol is 5.6 percentage points worse than Almeria in terms of average possession (48% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Racing Ferrol
For 4.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almeria
For 4.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 16.6 · Total 31.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Ferrol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.6
8.8
4.3
5.1
3.5
25.9
27.4
24.2
vs Stronger (31)
9.1
8.6
9.8
4.8
5.5
3.8
26.5
28.4
23.7
vs Similar (18)
8.1
8.7
7.6
3.7
4.0
3.5
24.8
24.7
24.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
40%
39%
68%
80%
56%
75%
80%
70%
% under line
60%
60%
61%
32%
20%
44%
25%
20%
30%
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.3
4.7
4.8
4.7
26.7
27.0
26.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.4
10.2
10.6
4.4
4.3
4.4
25.4
26.8
23.6
vs Similar (32)
9.9
9.1
10.7
5.3
5.1
5.4
26.7
26.5
26.9
vs Weaker (7)
7.0
6.0
7.7
2.7
3.5
2.4
29.8
31.0
29.0
% over line
44%
43%
44%
68%
70%
67%
71%
65%
76%
% under line
56%
57%
56%
32%
30%
33%
29%
35%
24%
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Deportivo La Coruna
10.4
Oviedo
10.4
Racing Santander
10.0
Burgos
9.8
Levante
9.7
Eldense
9.6
Almeria
9.6
Cordoba
9.6
Eibar
9.4
Zaragoza
9.4
Albacete
9.4
Tenerife
9.4
Castellón
9.3
Granada CF
9.2
Sporting Gijon
9.2
Mirandes
9.1
Huesca
9.0
Malaga
9.0
Cadiz
8.9
Racing Ferrol
8.8
FC Cartagena
8.8
Elche
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.1
Elche
5.7
Cadiz
5.6
Tenerife
5.5
Zaragoza
5.5
Malaga
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Granada CF
5.3
Cordoba
5.2
Huesca
5.1
Oviedo
5.0
Mirandes
5.0
Eibar
4.9
Almeria
4.8
Levante
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Deportivo La Coruna
4.5
FC Cartagena
4.5
Racing Ferrol
4.5
Castellón
4.4
Eldense
4.4
Burgos
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.7
Cadiz
29.0
Racing Santander
28.8
Malaga
28.7
Elche
28.1
Oviedo
27.1
Castellón
26.8
Zaragoza
26.7
Almeria
26.7
Tenerife
26.6
Granada CF
26.5
Deportivo La Coruna
26.4
Racing Ferrol
26.1
Eldense
25.9
Levante
25.4
Mirandes
25.4
Huesca
24.4
Albacete
24.2
FC Cartagena
23.8
Sporting Gijon
23.7
Eibar
23.3
Burgos
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.7%
Under 9.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.5%
Under 3.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.5%
Under 21.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Racing Ferrol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.50
0.21
0.57
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
0.53
0.22
0.67
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.50
0.20
0.40
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.50
0.79
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.95
0.50
0.80
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Racing Ferrol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.71
0.93
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.76
0.56
0.89
0.25
0.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almeria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.63
1.43
0.79
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
0.68
1.40
0.90
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
3.00
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Racing Ferrol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álvaro Giménez13%
Eneko Jauregi13%
Aitor Gelardo Vegara8%
Nacho Sánchez7%
Bebé6%
Luis Perea6%
Josep Señé5%
Josué Dorrio5%
Aitor Buñuel3%
Christian Borrego3%
Aleksa Puric3%
Alex López0%
Emanuel Insua0%
Róber0%
Manu Vallejo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Naldo0%
Erick Cabaco0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Yoel Rodríguez0%
Moises Delgado0%
Heber Pena Picos0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
David Castro0%
Álvaro Sanz Catalán0%
Raúl Blanco0%
Brais Martínez0%
Naim García0%
David Carballo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Naldo32%
Aleksa Puric32%
David Castro31%
Erick Cabaco25%
Francisco De La Manzanara25%
Róber21%
Josep Señé20%
Moises Delgado19%
Aitor Gelardo Vegara12%
Christian Borrego11%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Nacho Sánchez10%
Aitor Buñuel10%
Álvaro Sanz Catalán10%
Emanuel Insua9%
Eneko Jauregi8%
Julián Delmás6%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez6%
Naim García6%
Brais Martínez5%
Josué Dorrio5%
Alex López0%
Luis Perea0%
Manu Vallejo0%
Yoel Rodríguez0%
Bebé0%
Heber Pena Picos0%
Raúl Blanco0%
David Carballo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josep Señé7%
Josué Dorrio7%
Heber Pena Picos6%
Naim García6%
Róber4%
Francisco De La Manzanara4%
Aitor Gelardo Vegara4%
Aitor Buñuel3%
Naldo3%
Christian Borrego3%
Álvaro Giménez3%
Alex López0%
Emanuel Insua0%
Luis Perea0%
Manu Vallejo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Nacho Sánchez0%
Erick Cabaco0%
Yoel Rodríguez0%
Moises Delgado0%
Bebé0%
Eneko Jauregi0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
David Castro0%
Álvaro Sanz Catalán0%
Raúl Blanco0%
Brais Martínez0%
Aleksa Puric0%
David Carballo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bebé19%
Álvaro Giménez8%
Raúl Blanco7%
Luis Perea6%
Aleksa Puric5%
Josué Dorrio5%
Aitor Gelardo Vegara4%
Nacho Sánchez3%
Eneko Jauregi3%
Josep Señé2%
Alex López0%
Emanuel Insua0%
Róber0%
Manu Vallejo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Naldo0%
Erick Cabaco0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Yoel Rodríguez0%
Moises Delgado0%
Aitor Buñuel0%
Heber Pena Picos0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
David Castro0%
Álvaro Sanz Catalán0%
Christian Borrego0%
Brais Martínez0%
Naim García0%
David Carballo0%
Almeria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luis Javier Suárez53%
Léo Baptistão20%
Nicolás Melamed19%
Sergio Arribas18%
Gonzalo Melero14%
Gui8%
Arnau Puigmal7%
Alejandro Pozo6%
Lázaro6%
Rachad Fettal6%
Marko Milovanović5%
Álex Centelles5%
Edgar González5%
Lucas Robertone4%
Marc Pubill3%
Dion Lopy2%
Chumi0%
Luís Maximiano0%
Aleksandar Radovanović0%
Iddrisu Baba0%
Fernando Martínez0%
Bruno Langa0%
Kaiky0%
Ruben Quintanilla0%
Marko Perović0%
Selvi Clúa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dion Lopy50%
Ruben Quintanilla33%
Chumi28%
Gonzalo Melero22%
Luis Javier Suárez21%
Iddrisu Baba20%
Edgar González18%
Fernando Martínez18%
Lucas Robertone17%
Lázaro17%
Selvi Clúa17%
Marc Pubill16%
Gui15%
Marko Milovanović15%
Álex Centelles15%
Marko Perović12%
Nicolás Melamed12%
Bruno Langa12%
Alejandro Pozo11%
Kaiky11%
Aleksandar Radovanović10%
Arnau Puigmal7%
Sergio Arribas7%
Rachad Fettal6%
Léo Baptistão5%
Luís Maximiano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Quintanilla33%
Lucas Robertone17%
Luis Javier Suárez16%
Nicolás Melamed12%
Arnau Puigmal12%
Gonzalo Melero11%
Marc Pubill11%
Álex Centelles10%
Sergio Arribas9%
Léo Baptistão8%
Dion Lopy8%
Lázaro6%
Rachad Fettal6%
Marko Milovanović5%
Kaiky4%
Alejandro Pozo3%
Chumi0%
Luís Maximiano0%
Edgar González0%
Aleksandar Radovanović0%
Iddrisu Baba0%
Fernando Martínez0%
Bruno Langa0%
Gui0%
Marko Perović0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luis Javier Suárez65%
Léo Baptistão40%
Sergio Arribas25%
Nicolás Melamed19%
Lázaro17%
Lucas Robertone8%
Dion Lopy5%
Gonzalo Melero3%
Marc Pubill3%
Álex Centelles2%
Arnau Puigmal2%
Edgar González2%
Chumi0%
Luís Maximiano0%
Aleksandar Radovanović0%
Alejandro Pozo0%
Iddrisu Baba0%
Fernando Martínez0%
Bruno Langa0%
Kaiky0%
Gui0%
Marko Milovanović0%
Ruben Quintanilla0%
Marko Perović0%
Rachad Fettal0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →