The model favours an away win, with a 51% chance for Celje, 28% for a draw and 21% for Radomlje. The expected total is 2.5 goals, so a 2-goal match is the most likely total, with a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.3% chance. Radomlje, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Celje, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards (79.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (78.7%), Under 3.5 (76.8% - miss), Under 5.5 cards (74.8%) and Over 1.5 (71.5% - hit). Radomlje’s recent form shows a draw after a 0-0 stalemate with Olimpija Ljubljana, while Celje has just suffered a 1-4 loss to Brinje-Grosuplje. These dynamics suggest a tight encounter where Celje’s higher away scoring rate could tip the balance.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Radomlje overturned the pre-match favourite, Celje, to win 4-2, extending their recent run with a draw in their last outing. The model had tipped an away win with a 51% probability, but the call was wrong. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5, at 76.8%, missed, while Over 1.5, at 71.5%, hit. The final score of 4-2 matched the actual result of a home win, confirming Radomlje’s strong home form against a weaker opponent. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals fell short of the 6-goal thriller that unfolded.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Radomlje win✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celje win✗ Miss
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Radomlje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.13
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.62
0.86
1.57
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.82
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.33
1.33
1.53
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.76
1.35
2.25
0.75
1.33
1.89
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
1.62
2.43
2.00
1.83
1.17
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.4%
Under 2.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.1%
0-2
10.3%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.3%
Radomlje goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
12%
10%
5.3%
2.1%
1
6.6%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.9%
2
3.5%
5.5%
4.2%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.1%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radomlje goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.06
Maribor
1.86
Koper
1.83
Celje
1.69
Bravo
1.53
Triglav
1.50
Primorje
1.19
Radomlje
0.97
Mura
0.97
NK Domzale
0.84
Nafta
0.78
Radomlje is 0.72 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.11
Triglav
2.00
Maribor
1.78
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.75
Koper
1.67
Bravo
1.44
Primorje
1.14
NK Domzale
1.05
Radomlje
1.03
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.92
Radomlje is 1.08 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.56
Maribor
0.89
Koper
0.97
Bravo
1.22
Celje
1.42
Mura
1.42
Primorje
1.69
NK Domzale
1.84
Nafta
1.92
Radomlje
1.92
Triglav
2.50
Radomlje is 0.50 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Radomlje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Celje
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.0 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Radomlje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.6
10.2
1.8
1.6
2.0
21.1
20.4
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
8.7
8.0
9.7
2.2
2.1
2.3
21.0
20.5
21.7
vs Weaker (27)
10.0
9.2
10.6
1.5
1.3
1.8
21.2
20.2
22.0
% over line
50%
38%
62%
26%
28%
24%
44%
38%
50%
% under line
50%
62%
38%
74%
72%
76%
56%
62%
50%
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
9.9
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maribor
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.6
Celje
4.3
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.6
Mura
24.2
Celje
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.1%
Under 3.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.3%
Under 21.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radomlje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.27
0.53
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.25
0.38
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.93
0.53
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.76
1.12
0.38
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.69
0.71
0.71
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Radomlje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.92
0.57
0.86
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.35
0.88
0.38
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.73
1.40
0.80
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.59
1.12
0.38
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.92
1.71
1.29
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armandas Kučys57%
David Zec33%
Tamar Svetlin33%
Juanjo Nieto25%
Aljoša Matko18%
Ivan Brnić17%
Svit Sešlar17%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Klemen Nemanič9%
Edmilson8%
Mario Kvesić0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Nino Kouter0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Marco Dulca0%
Mark Zabukovnik0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Clement Lhernault0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Armandas Kučys57%
Nino Kouter33%
Klemen Nemanič27%
Damjan Vuklišević20%
Mark Zabukovnik18%
David Zec17%
Ricardo Silva17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Tamar Svetlin17%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Mario Kvesić10%
Žan Karničnik10%
Svit Sešlar8%
Edmilson8%
Ivan Brnić0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Aljoša Matko0%
Marco Dulca0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Svit Sešlar50%
Ivan Brnić33%
Aljoša Matko18%
Mark Zabukovnik18%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Armandas Kučys14%
Žan Karničnik10%
Mario Kvesić0%
David Zec0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Nino Kouter0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Klemen Nemanič0%
Marco Dulca0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Edmilson0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aljoša Matko36%
Armandas Kučys29%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Mario Kvesić10%
Svit Sešlar8%
Ivan Brnić0%
David Zec0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Nino Kouter0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Klemen Nemanič0%
Marco Dulca0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Mark Zabukovnik0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Edmilson0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Radomlje's squad is €8m less valuable than Celje's (€5m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Radomlje's attack is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Radomlje and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Radomlje's defence is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Maribor
Koper
Bravo
Primorje
Mura
NK Domzale
Nafta
Triglav