Radomlje vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Radomlje’s defensive record at home shows a tidy 1.0 goal conceded per match against stronger opposition, while Maribor’s away form sees them conceding 1.5 goals to weaker teams. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with an expected 2.1 goals and a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.8% probability. The favourite result is a Radomlje win, with a 34% chance of victory, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of a Maribor win. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 85.2%, Under 3.5 at 83.2% (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 81.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.9%, and Under 10.5 corners at 76.7%. Radomlje entered the match after a draw, while Maribor came off a two-game winning streak.

The upset was immediate: Radomlje fell to a 0-5 defeat, ending their recent draw-heavy run with a heavy loss at home. The pre-match favourite was the model’s Home win call, assigned a 34% chance, but the model was wrong. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals, with an 83.2% probability, missed as the match produced five goals. The final score of 0-5 confirmed an Away win. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total was also incorrect, as the game saw more than double that number. Overall, the model’s favourite and its single suggested pick both failed to materialise.