Radomlje vs Maribor Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win for Maribor, with a 47% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Radomlje win. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, and the most likely total is two goals, carrying a 28% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance of that exact result.

Radomlje, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.71 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Maribor, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The recent form notes that Radomlje are coming off a draw, while Maribor are on a two-game winning run.

The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 83.1%, Under 3.5 at 79.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.3% and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.2%.

The draw shocked everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Away win, did not materialise. Radomlje’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Maribor’s two-game winning run set the stage for an upset, yet the match finished 1-1, a result that the model had not predicted. The model’s call was wrong, with a 47% probability for an away victory. The only other selection, Under 3.5, hit its target with a 79.8% chance, confirming the low-scoring nature of the encounter. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which held a 13.9% probability, but the overall outcome was a draw, not the expected away win.