Raith Rovers vs Arbroath Result & Analysis

Raith Rovers are the clear favourites, with a 52% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 21% for an Arbroath win. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.

Raith, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Arbroath, on the road against a comparable side, averages only 0.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, suggesting a defensive match that could see both sides struggle to find the net.

The model’s selections include: Under 25.5 fouls 87.3%, Under 5.5 cards 85.2%, Under 23.5 fouls 76.6%, Over 1.5 76.4% (hit), Over 8.5 corners 73.1%, Under 4.5 cards 71.7%, and Under 3.5 71.2% (hit). These picks highlight a low-foul, low-card, and moderate-corner game, with a modest chance of a small goal tally.

Raith Rovers’ home form, now coming off a defeat, had been a bright spot in a shaky run, while Arbroath, on a two-game winning streak, looked ready to push the visitors. The pre-match favourite, a Home win at 52 percent, failed to materialise, and the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s other selections performed well: Over 1.5, at 76.4 percent, hit, and Under 3.5, at 71.2 percent, also hit. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely score of 1-1, yet the expected total of 2.7 goals fell short of the 2-goal outcome.