Raith Rovers are the clear favourites, the model assigning them a 63% chance of victory and picking a home win as the most likely outcome. Their recent form, a 0-1 loss to Dunfermline, is tempered by a solid home record of 1.25 goals scored and conceded against similar opposition, while Arbroath, still on a two-game winning streak, averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded away. The model expects a total of 3.0 goals, with the most probable scoreline 2-0 (11% probability). The predicted result is a 2-0 win for Raith Rovers, a 22% draw probability and a 15% chance of an Arbroath win. The expected total goals is 3.0, and the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 24% probability. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards (85.2%), Under 25.5 fouls (83.3%), Over 1.5 goals (80.4% hit), Under 4.5 cards (71.8%), Over 8.5 corners (71.7%) and Under 23.5 fouls (70.9%).
Results analysis
Raith Rovers, coming off a defeat, extended their recent run with a 3-0 win over Arbroath, while the visitors, on a two-game winning streak, were unable to convert their form into a result. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 63%, and it proved correct. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 80.4% probability, matching the 3-goal total. The most likely scoreline of 2-0, with 24% confidence, fell short, but the overall outcome aligned with the model’s predictions. The final score of 3-0 confirmed the home advantage and the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raith Rovers win✓ Hit
63.1%
Avg Implied 56.6% · @ 1.61
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.70
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 4.85
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.27
1.54
1.23
1.71
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (28)
1.57
1.14
1.25
1.25
1.81
1.06
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.37
1.73
0.93
1.33
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.56
1.12
1.50
1.88
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
1.25
3.50
0.25
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.88+7.4%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.83-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
3-0 ✓
7.5%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
4.5%
Raith Rovers goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
3.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
9.7%
11%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.5%
6.8%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.9%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Raith Rovers is 0.23 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Raith Rovers is 0.06 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Raith Rovers is 0.02 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
For 4.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 11.3 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
1.0
1.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
8.1
12.5
2.7
2.8
2.5
19.9
20.4
19.5
vs Stronger (11)
9.9
8.8
11.2
3.5
3.8
3.0
20.3
20.8
19.8
vs Similar (25)
9.3
7.0
11.3
2.1
2.0
2.2
21.1
20.6
21.4
vs Weaker (14)
12.0
8.8
15.2
3.0
3.6
2.4
18.0
19.7
16.3
% over line
55%
32%
79%
34%
42%
25%
34%
37%
32%
% under line
45%
68%
21%
66%
58%
75%
66%
63%
68%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
11.6
Queens Park
11.3
Morton
11.0
ST Johnstone
10.6
Airdrie United
10.5
Partick
10.3
Dunfermline
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Ayr
9.9
Stenhousemuir
9.3
Raith Rvs
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Morton
5.0
Ayr Utd
4.8
Raith Rvs
4.2
Partick
4.1
Ayr
4.1
ST Johnstone
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Queens Park
3.9
Dunfermline
3.6
Airdrie United
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Raith Rvs
22.7
Stenhousemuir
22.6
Ayr
22.5
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Ross County
20.6
Airdrie United
20.4
Dunfermline
20.3
Partick
20.0
Arbroath
19.9
Queens Park
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.9%
Under 9.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
45.0%
Under 21.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.77
0.46
0.88
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.39
0.58
0.50
0.94
0.31
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.77
0.77
0.82
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.75
0.67
0.75
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
1.00
0.47
0.67
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.00
0.62
0.75
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.75
2.00
0.25
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers's squad is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Johnstone
Partick
Dunfermline
Morton
Ross County
Airdrie United
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South