Raith Rovers are tipped to win, with a 56% chance of a home victory, 26% for a draw and 18% for an Arbroath win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability. Raith, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.21 conceded, while Arbroath, on the road, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 83.7%, Under 25.5 fouls at 79.6%, Under 3.5 at 74.5% (miss), Over 1.5 at 73.6% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 71.9% and Over 2.5 cards at 70.6%. Raith’s recent form shows a dip after a 0-1 loss to Dunfermline, whereas Arbroath are on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Livingston 1-0.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Raith Rovers unable to convert their home advantage into the 2-0 win the model had favoured. The final score of 2-3 gave Arbroath the away victory, a result that the model’s pick of a home win proved wrong. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 56% probability, but the outcome was the opposite. The model’s other selections also fell short: Under 3.5, with a 74.5% chance, missed, while Over 1.5, at 73.6%, hit. Arbroath, on a two-game winning run, extended their form, whereas Raith, coming off a defeat, saw their recent run falter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raith Rovers win✗ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied 46.0% · @ 1.97
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.18
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✓ Hit
17.8%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.56
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.73
1.20
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.38
1.10
1.50
1.21
1.27
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.93
0.93
1.06
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.20
1.20
0.60
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.11
1.88
1.25
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
6.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.2%
@ 2.16+4.3%
Under 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.62-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.9%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
Raith Rovers goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
5.5%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.6%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
4
2.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Raith Rovers is 0.23 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Raith Rovers is 0.06 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Raith Rovers is 0.02 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
For 4.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
1.0
1.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
7.6
10.5
1.6
1.8
1.5
19.9
20.5
19.2
vs Stronger (14)
9.0
8.8
9.2
2.2
2.1
2.3
20.9
21.5
20.2
vs Similar (28)
8.8
6.6
11.0
1.2
1.3
1.1
20.7
20.6
20.8
vs Weaker (8)
9.5
7.7
11.3
2.2
2.8
1.8
17.2
19.0
15.3
% over line
46%
25%
67%
20%
25%
15%
33%
42%
25%
% under line
54%
75%
33%
80%
75%
85%
67%
58%
75%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
11.4
Morton
11.0
Queens Park
10.3
Airdrie United
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.3
Partick
10.1
Ayr
10.0
Arbroath
9.8
Dunfermline
9.7
Raith Rvs
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Morton
4.9
Ayr Utd
4.8
Ayr
4.4
Stenhousemuir
4.4
Partick
4.3
ST Johnstone
4.1
Queens Park
4.1
Raith Rvs
3.9
Dunfermline
3.8
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
23.6
Ayr
22.6
Morton
22.5
ST Johnstone
22.1
Raith Rvs
21.5
Dunfermline
20.9
Ross County
20.8
Arbroath
20.2
Partick
20.2
Queens Park
20.2
Airdrie United
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.3%
Under 21.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.52
0.57
0.64
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.37
0.71
0.36
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.28
0.88
0.38
0.50
0.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.59
0.93
0.57
0.67
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.21
0.57
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.70
1.20
0.20
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.83
1.00
0.88
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers's squad is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Johnstone
Partick
Dunfermline
Morton
Ross County
Airdrie United
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South