The model favours an away win, with a 44 % chance for Aarhus, 29 % for Randers and 27 % for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 24 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6 % probability. Randers, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Aarhus, on the road, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar teams. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals (99 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 % with a 4 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 % with a 5 % edge), Under 6.5 (97.2 % with a 4 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.1 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.4 % with a 4 % edge) and Under 5.5 (92.7 % with a 4 % edge). Randers has recently struggled, losing two straight matches and falling 0-1 to FC Midtjylland, while Aarhus has bounced back from a draw, ending 2-2 with Odense.
Results analysis
The upset came as Randers FC edged Aarhus 2-1, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win, which had a 46% probability. The home side’s recent form, a win that extended their winning streak, proved decisive. The model’s call was wrong. The Under 7.5 goals pick, with a 99.1% probability, hit, as did all eight other suggested selections: Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (92.9%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (91.5%). The match stayed within the expected total of 2.9 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Randers FC win✓ Hit
27.1%
Avg Implied 30.7% · @ 3.04
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.35
Bet365
3.20
Dafabet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
Betano
3.10
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.54
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.72
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Aarhus win✗ Miss
46.3%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.18
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Dafabet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Randers FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.90
0.33
2.67
0.43
1.57
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.16
1.17
1.08
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.93
1.14
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.43
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.14
2.40
1.20
1.42
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.20+1.0%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 4.29-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.58
Superbet
4.55
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
@ 1.68-1.8%
Under 2.5
45.4%
@ 2.16+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.22
SBO
2.21
Betano
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
@ 2.67-3.0%
Under 3.5
67.8%
@ 1.45+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
Under
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.0%
@ 1.56-1.7%
No
42.0%
@ 2.30+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
No
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.62+5.8%
1-2
9.4%@ 8.35+4.1%
0-1
8.3%@ 8.97+3.3%
0-2
7.7%@ 11.25+3.8%
2-1 ✓
7.0%@ 10.14+2.5%
0-0
6.8%@ 12.27+3.2%
1-0
5.8%@ 10.71+1.6%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.38+1.8%
Randers FC goals ↓
Aarhus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
8.3%
7.7%
4.3%
1.8%
1
5.8%
13%
9.4%
5.2%
2.1%
2
4.2%
7.0%
5.7%
3.1%
1.3%
3
1.7%
2.8%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Randers FC goals (down), columns = Aarhus goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
FC Midtjylland
2.33
Viborg
2.17
FC Nordsjaelland
2.17
Brondby
2.17
Randers FC
1.17
AC Horsens
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Odense
0.83
Lyngby
0.50
Aarhus
0.50
Sonderjyske
0.17
Randers FC is 0.67 points better than Aarhus in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
Brondby
1.83
Viborg
1.67
FC Midtjylland
1.67
FC Nordsjaelland
1.50
AC Horsens
1.33
Lyngby
1.17
Aarhus
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Sonderjyske
0.83
Randers FC
0.83
Odense
0.83
Randers FC is 0.33 goals worse than Aarhus in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Viborg
0.67
FC Nordsjaelland
0.67
FC Midtjylland
0.83
Odense
1.17
Brondby
1.17
Randers FC
1.33
FC Copenhagen
1.33
Silkeborg
1.50
AC Horsens
1.67
Lyngby
1.83
Aarhus
1.83
Sonderjyske
2.17
Randers FC is 0.50 goals better than Aarhus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
59%
Aarhus
58%
FC Midtjylland
55%
Brondby
55%
FC Copenhagen
52%
Lyngby
52%
Odense
51%
Silkeborg
47%
Viborg
47%
Randers FC
43%
AC Horsens
43%
Sonderjyske
39%
Randers FC is 14.3 percentage points worse than Aarhus in terms of average possession (43% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Randers FC
For 5.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
For 5.6 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 14.2 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Randers FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.3
3.0
2.7
3.2
21.9
21.0
23.0
vs Stronger (20)
10.2
8.9
11.4
3.4
2.8
3.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
vs Similar (29)
10.1
10.7
9.4
2.8
2.6
3.0
21.9
20.3
23.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
55%
38%
28%
48%
53%
40%
68%
% under line
49%
52%
45%
62%
72%
52%
47%
60%
32%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.2
3.4
3.1
24.4
23.8
25.0
vs Stronger (10)
10.6
9.8
11.5
3.5
3.0
4.0
25.0
24.5
25.5
vs Similar (38)
9.6
9.8
9.4
3.2
3.5
2.9
24.0
23.6
24.4
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
2.5
-
2.5
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
45%
41%
50%
44%
52%
36%
70%
68%
73%
% under line
55%
59%
50%
56%
48%
64%
30%
32%
27%
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Odense
10.9
AC Horsens
10.6
FC Midtjylland
10.2
Sonderjyske
10.2
Lyngby
10.1
Randers FC
9.9
Viborg
9.8
FC Copenhagen
9.8
Aarhus
9.7
Silkeborg
9.6
Brondby
9.5
FC Nordsjaelland
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.7
FC Midtjylland
4.4
AC Horsens
3.8
Aarhus
3.8
Lyngby
3.8
Sonderjyske
3.8
FC Copenhagen
3.8
Viborg
3.7
FC Nordsjaelland
3.7
Randers FC
3.3
Odense
3.2
Silkeborg
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
27.9
Viborg
24.9
Brondby
24.5
Lyngby
24.0
FC Copenhagen
23.8
Aarhus
23.6
Sonderjyske
22.0
Randers FC
21.9
Odense
21.6
FC Nordsjaelland
21.3
AC Horsens
19.9
Silkeborg
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.5%
@ 1.55-0.0%
Under 9.5
40.5%
@ 2.28+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.37
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.2%
@ 1.88-10.0%
Under 3.5
60.8%
@ 1.82+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.75
Under
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.73
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.0%
Under 21.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Randers FC or Draw✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.66
Edge
-3.0%
27%
27%
46%
covers Randers FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Randers FC or Aarhus✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.5%
27%
27%
46%
covers Randers FC + Aarhus
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Draw or Aarhus✗ Miss
72.9%
Avg Implied 69.4% · @ 1.35
Edge
+3.5%
27%
27%
46%
covers Draw + Aarhus
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Randers FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.4%
@ 1.28-2.0%
Under
29.6%
@ 3.37+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.65
Unibet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Randers FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.3%
@ 2.40-4.7%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.53+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Randers FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 5.50-4.5%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.12+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Randers FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 13.58-3.5%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Aarhus over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.8%
@ 1.18+1.7%
Under
19.2%
@ 4.45-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Aarhus over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.0%
@ 1.92+0.5%
Under
51.0%
@ 1.81-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Aarhus over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.9%
@ 3.88-1.1%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.23+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.13
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.84
Under
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Aarhus over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 8.29-2.7%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.90
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Randers FC, so a minus line means Randers FC give that many goals of a start and Aarhus receive them. At -1, Randers FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Randers FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Randers FC)Actual: Aarhus
Randers FC -2
3.7%
@ 14.38-2.6%
Draw -2
7.8%
@ 8.70-2.6%
Aarhus +2
88.4%
@ 1.10+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
12.50
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Away
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Handicap -1 (Randers FC)Actual: Draw
Randers FC -1
11.6%
@ 6.04-3.3%
Draw -1
15.5%
@ 4.77-3.3%
Aarhus +1
72.9%
@ 1.35+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Handicap +1 (Randers FC)Actual: Randers FC
Randers FC +1
53.7%
@ 1.67+0.2%
Draw +1
21.4%
@ 3.90-1.5%
Aarhus -1
24.9%
@ 3.79+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Unibet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Handicap +2 (Randers FC)Actual: Randers FC
Randers FC +2
75.1%
@ 1.21+0.9%
Draw +2
14.4%
@ 6.08-0.4%
Aarhus -2
10.5%
@ 8.18-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Randers FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
1.00
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.74
0.75
0.83
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.64
0.43
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.25
0.25
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.41
0.80
0.50
0.92
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.31+2.7%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 3.27-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.43-1.4%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.51+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Under
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 5.71-2.1%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.11+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.55
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Randers FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.5%
@ 2.08-4.3%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.69+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Randers FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.5%
@ 6.42-3.9%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.08+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Randers FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 19.00-3.5%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.4%
@ 1.81+0.1%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.91-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.92
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 4.96-2.9%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.14+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 13.25-3.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Randers FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.42
0.42
0.25
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.29
0.71
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.73
1.60
0.70
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.17+0.2%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 4.46-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Under
Unibet
4.80
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.1%
@ 1.85-3.1%
Under 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.87+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 3.64-5.7%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.25+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Randers FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.3%
@ 1.75-6.6%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.97+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Randers FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 4.69-5.9%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Randers FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 12.67-5.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.5%
@ 1.56-2.1%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.30+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Under
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.9%
@ 3.62+0.4%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.24-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 9.32-1.5%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.7%
1.20
Betano
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.5%
1.39
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.32
-
-
+12.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
77.1%
1.23
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
1.27
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.28
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.9%
1.35
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
72.9%
1.35
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
1.31
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Randers FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mike Themsen33%
Mohamed Sankoh20%
Kasper Junker17%
Elies Mahmoud17%
Frederik Lauenborg0%
Mathias Greve0%
Jannich Storch0%
Daniel Høegh0%
Wessel Dammers0%
John Björkengren0%
Nikolas Dyhr0%
Martin Sjølstad0%
Laurits Pedersen0%
Sabil Hansen0%
Cyril Edudzi0%
Felix Sommer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Laurits Pedersen33%
Mike Themsen33%
Mohamed Sankoh20%
Sabil Hansen20%
Elies Mahmoud17%
Kasper Junker0%
Frederik Lauenborg0%
Mathias Greve0%
Jannich Storch0%
Daniel Høegh0%
Wessel Dammers0%
John Björkengren0%
Nikolas Dyhr0%
Martin Sjølstad0%
Cyril Edudzi0%
Felix Sommer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sabil Hansen20%
Kasper Junker17%
Martin Sjølstad17%
Mike Themsen17%
Frederik Lauenborg0%
Mathias Greve0%
Jannich Storch0%
Daniel Høegh0%
Wessel Dammers0%
John Björkengren0%
Nikolas Dyhr0%
Elies Mahmoud0%
Mohamed Sankoh0%
Laurits Pedersen0%
Cyril Edudzi0%
Felix Sommer0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elies Mahmoud17%
Mike Themsen17%
Kasper Junker0%
Frederik Lauenborg0%
Mathias Greve0%
Jannich Storch0%
Daniel Høegh0%
Wessel Dammers0%
John Björkengren0%
Nikolas Dyhr0%
Martin Sjølstad0%
Mohamed Sankoh0%
Laurits Pedersen0%
Sabil Hansen0%
Cyril Edudzi0%
Felix Sommer0%
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristian Arnstad38%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson33%
Frederik Tingager25%
J. Bogere22%
J. Jønsson20%
J. Serra14%
R. Carstensen12%
Tobias Bech11%
Frederik Emmery11%
S. Jørgensen0%
Mikael Anderson0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
M. Knudsen0%
Gift Links0%
M. Solbakken0%
C. Rösler0%
Eric Kahl0%
J. Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Christian Storch0%
Mouhammade Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Knudsen33%
Christian Storch33%
Mouhammade Camara29%
C. Rösler25%
Stefen Tchamche25%
Eric Kahl22%
Frederik Emmery22%
Gift Links20%
Mikael Anderson14%
J. Andersen14%
R. Carstensen12%
Kristian Arnstad12%
J. Bogere11%
Frederik Tingager0%
S. Jørgensen0%
Tobias Bech0%
J. Serra0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
J. Jønsson0%
M. Solbakken0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Jørgensen33%
M. Solbakken33%
M. Knudsen22%
Kristian Arnstad12%
Tobias Bech11%
Eric Kahl11%
Frederik Emmery11%
Frederik Tingager0%
R. Carstensen0%
J. Serra0%
Mikael Anderson0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
Gift Links0%
J. Jønsson0%
C. Rösler0%
J. Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Christian Storch0%
J. Bogere0%
Mouhammade Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Jørgensen33%
J. Bogere33%
Frederik Emmery22%
J. Serra14%
Tobias Bech11%
Frederik Tingager0%
R. Carstensen0%
Mikael Anderson0%
M. Hedenstad Christiansen0%
M. Knudsen0%
Gift Links0%
J. Jønsson0%
M. Solbakken0%
Kristian Arnstad0%
C. Rösler0%
Eric Kahl0%
J. Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Christian Storch0%
Mouhammade Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
SON (26)
€13m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
Randers FC's squad is €22m less valuable than Aarhus's (€14m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
SON (6)
€3m
LYN (5)
€3m
Randers FC's attack is €9m less valuable than Aarhus's (€5m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
SON (7)
€3m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
AH (6)
€2m
Randers FC's midfield is €11m less valuable than Aarhus's (€3m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
SON (13)
€6m
RF (10)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
Randers FC's defence is €2m less valuable than Aarhus's (€6m vs €8m).
Denmark: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Copenhagen
FC Midtjylland
Viborg
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
AC Horsens
Odense
Silkeborg
Lyngby
Sonderjyske