Randers FC, coming off a win against Lyngby, welcomes Silkeborg to their home turf. The hosts have been scoring at a rate of 1.1 goals per game at home, conceding 1.0 on average. Silkeborg, meanwhile, has been scoring 1.89 goals per game away from home, conceding 1.67. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 42%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has a probability of 85.7% and is the model's selection. The model also suggests Both Teams to Score, which has a probability of 85.7%. The home side is likely to win, with a 42% probability, the draw is 25%, and the away side has a 33% chance of winning.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Silkeborg, the underdog, secured a 1-1 draw against Randers FC, the pre-match favourite, at home. The draw extends Randers FC's win streak to five games, having come off a 2-0 win over Lyngby. However, the model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, as it had predicted Randers FC to emerge victorious with a 42% probability.
The model's selection was not the only one to miss the mark, as the model's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a high probability of 85.7%.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Randers FC winâ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg winâ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Randers FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
1.07
1.53
0.87
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.00
1.00
2.20
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.15
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.07
1.00
1.57
1.69
2.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
3.78
0.75
2.75
1.00
4.60
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.42
1.10
1.10
1.67
1.78
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
10.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
1-0
5.2%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.5%
Randers FC goals ↓
Silkeborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.5%
4.3%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.2%
11%
7.7%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.3%
5.2%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Randers FC goals (down), columns = Silkeborg goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Aarhus
2.09
FC Midtjylland
1.88
FC Copenhagen
1.64
FC Nordsjaelland
1.56
Viborg
1.38
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
Odense
1.28
Lyngby
1.25
AC Horsens
1.20
Silkeborg
1.12
Randers FC
1.09
Randers FC is 0.03 points worse than Silkeborg in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.12).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Midtjylland
2.25
FC Copenhagen
2.12
Aarhus
1.94
Odense
1.59
FC Nordsjaelland
1.59
Viborg
1.53
Lyngby
1.40
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
AC Horsens
1.34
Silkeborg
1.28
Randers FC
1.03
Randers FC is 0.25 goals worse than Silkeborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus
1.00
FC Midtjylland
1.12
Brondby
1.15
FC Copenhagen
1.36
FC Nordsjaelland
1.44
Randers FC
1.47
Sonderjyske
1.53
Viborg
1.59
Lyngby
1.72
AC Horsens
1.80
Odense
1.88
Silkeborg
2.09
Randers FC is 0.62 goals better than Silkeborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 2.09).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
57%
FC Copenhagen
55%
FC Midtjylland
54%
Aarhus
54%
Odense
51%
Brondby
51%
Silkeborg
49%
Randers FC
48%
Viborg
48%
Sonderjyske
44%
Randers FC is 0.4 percentage points worse than Silkeborg in terms of average possession (48% vs 49%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Randers FC
For 5.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Silkeborg
For 4.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 6.9 · Against 9.4 · Total 16.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Randers FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.5
9.6
3.1
2.9
3.3
21.8
21.1
22.5
vs Stronger (21)
8.8
8.1
9.6
3.4
2.9
3.9
21.5
21.8
21.1
vs Similar (29)
10.1
10.6
9.5
2.9
2.9
2.9
22.0
20.5
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
40%
48%
42%
36%
48%
54%
44%
65%
% under line
56%
60%
52%
58%
64%
52%
46%
56%
35%
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.4
2.4
2.6
2.2
18.5
18.1
19.0
vs Stronger (16)
9.2
10.0
8.5
2.2
2.4
2.1
17.7
18.3
17.0
vs Similar (30)
9.6
9.5
9.7
2.6
2.7
2.5
18.5
18.3
18.7
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
8.0
10.0
1.8
3.0
1.3
25.0
15.0
35.0
% over line
50%
45%
55%
28%
35%
22%
30%
27%
32%
% under line
50%
55%
45%
72%
65%
78%
70%
73%
68%
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AC Horsens
10.7
Odense
10.6
Lyngby
10.4
FC Midtjylland
10.1
Viborg
10.0
Brondby
9.8
Sonderjyske
9.7
Randers FC
9.6
FC Copenhagen
9.6
Silkeborg
9.3
Aarhus
9.2
FC Nordsjaelland
8.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.7
FC Midtjylland
4.1
Lyngby
3.9
Aarhus
3.8
Sonderjyske
3.8
Viborg
3.8
AC Horsens
3.8
FC Copenhagen
3.8
FC Nordsjaelland
3.6
Randers FC
3.5
Odense
3.3
Silkeborg
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
26.6
Viborg
24.2
Brondby
23.9
FC Copenhagen
23.5
Aarhus
23.3
Lyngby
23.3
Sonderjyske
21.9
Odense
21.8
Randers FC
21.8
FC Nordsjaelland
21.1
Silkeborg
18.9
AC Horsens
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.5%
Under 9.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
43.5%
Under 21.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Randers FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.10
0.00
1.20
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.70
0.90
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.57
0.64
0.81
1.25
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.78
0.75
1.25
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.63
0.50
0.40
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Randers FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Randers FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Randers FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Randers FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.60
0.53
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.90
1.00
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.43
0.93
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.79
0.60
0.70
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Randers FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Randers FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Randers FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Randers FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 13. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (28)
€120m
FC (26)
€115m
FN (34)
€80m
BRO (30)
€54m
AAR (29)
€37m
VIB (27)
€30m
RF (32)
€27m
SIL (29)
€26m
SON (29)
€20m
ODE (25)
€18m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
Randers FC and Silkeborg have a similar squad value (both €27m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (10)
€62m
FN (12)
€31m
FC (8)
€23m
BRO (11)
€18m
RF (15)
€16m
AAR (10)
€13m
SIL (9)
€9m
SON (8)
€9m
VIB (8)
€8m
ODE (6)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
Randers FC's attack is €7m more valuable than Silkeborg's (€16m vs €9m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (6)
€59m
FM (7)
€27m
FN (8)
€18m
AAR (9)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
SIL (8)
€10m
VIB (7)
€9m
LYN (8)
€5m
SON (8)
€5m
ODE (8)
€4m
RF (6)
€4m
AH (6)
€2m
Randers FC's midfield is €6m less valuable than Silkeborg's (€4m vs €10m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€33m
FM (11)
€32m
FN (14)
€30m
BRO (14)
€25m
VIB (12)
€13m
AAR (10)
€10m
ODE (11)
€8m
SIL (12)
€8m
RF (11)
€7m
SON (13)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
Randers FC and Silkeborg have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Denmark: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Brondby
Viborg
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Midtjylland
FC Copenhagen
AC Horsens
Odense
Aarhus
Lyngby
Sonderjyske