PythiaFootballBETA
Carroi is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win at a probability of 72.5%. This is largely due to Ranger's II's poor home form, particularly against stronger opponents, where they have an average of 0.75 goals scored and 4.5 conceded. In contrast, Carroi has been impressive on the road, scoring an average of 3.5 goals and conceding just 1.0 against weaker opponents.
The expected total goals is 4.4, with the most likely score being 1-3 in favour of Carroi, occurring at a probability of 7.9%. The most likely total number of goals is 6 or more, occurring at a probability of 28%.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 72.5% probability. Other selections include Over 1.5 (94%), Over 2.5 (82%), BTTS Yes (70.2%), and the away win (72.5%). Ranger's II's home win percentage is 12%, draw percentage is 15%, and away win percentage is 72%.
The win extends Ranger's II's dismal run, now six consecutive losses, following a 1-3 defeat to City Escaldes. Meanwhile, Carroi's recent form has shown promise, having come off a 2-1 victory over Inter Club d'Escaldes. The final score was 1-7, with Carroi securing the away win, as predicted by the Pythia model. The model's selection, Carroi's win, was correct, given a 72.5% pre-match probability.
The model's selections largely came in, with the Over 1.5 goal margin hitting at 93.9%, Over 2.5 goal margin at 81.6%, and BTTS Yes at 70.2%. The most likely scores were 1-3, 1-2, and 1-4, each with a 7.9%, 7.7%, and 6.2% probability, respectively. The expected total goals were 4.4, with the most likely total goals being 6+.
Ranger's II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 3.14 | 0.83 | 3.33 | 1.12 | 3.00 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 3.57 | 0.67 | 4.00 | 0.75 | 3.25 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.29 | 2.71 | 1.00 | 2.67 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-17pp vs league) | |||||
Carroi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 1.93 | 1.60 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 2.92 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 2.83 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.38 | 1.38 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.30 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Carroi goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| 1 | 1.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| 2 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away win | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 70.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/25 | H | 0-8 | |
| 19/01/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 10/11/24 | A | 3-1 |
Ranger's II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 05/04/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 15/02/25 | H | 1-6 | |
| 01/02/25 | H | 0-8 | |
| 19/01/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/12/24 | A | 1-4 | |
| 01/12/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 24/11/24 | A | 1-1 |
Carroi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/03/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 19/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/02/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/02/25 | A | 0-8 | |
| 25/01/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 19/01/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 01/12/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/11/24 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Carroi | 16 | 35 | 69% | 2.2 | 40 | 14 | +26 | 3.4 | 75% | 62% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | - |
| 2 |  Atlètic Amèrica | 16 | 30 | 56% | 1.9 | 35 | 16 | +19 | 3.2 | 88% | 56% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 |  City Escaldes | 16 | 23 | 44% | 1.4 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 3.7 | 75% | 69% | 56% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | - |
| 4 |  UE Santa Coloma II | 16 | 16 | 25% | 1.0 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 3.1 | 75% | 56% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |
| 5 | Ranger's II | 16 | 10 | 19% | 0.6 | 16 | 54 | -38 | 4.4 | 88% | 81% | 69% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.4 | - |
| 6 |  Atlètic Club II | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |