Ranheim and Stromsgodset are set to clash in the Norway: 1. Division on August 15. Recent form suggests a high-scoring match, with Stromsgodset coming off a defeat and Ranheim coming off a win. However, the home side has struggled to defend at home, conceding an average of 1.12 goals per game, while Stromsgodset has been scoring at a rate of 2.0 goals per game away from home. The expected total goals is 4.0, with a most likely total of 6+ goals. The model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 50%. The most likely score is 1-2 in favour of Stromsgodset, with a probability of 8.2%. Ranheim's home scoring average is 1.75 goals per game, while Stromsgodset's away scoring average is 2.0 goals per game. The model's suggested picks are Over 1.5 (91.4%), Over 2.5 (76.0%), and BTTS Yes (74.2%). The probabilities for the match result are 28% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 50% for an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Ranheim's losing streak to five matches, with the latest defeat coming at the hands of Stromsgodset. The away team's recent form, however, remains encouraging, having secured a win in their previous meeting with Ranheim. The final score of 1-3 reflected the predicted away win, with the model's selection proving correct. Stromsgodset's away win was the pre-match favourite, boasting a 50% probability of success. The model's call was correct, as the away team ultimately secured the victory. The model's selections largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting and Over 2.5 goals also hitting, both with high probabilities of 91.4% and 76.0% respectively. BTTS Yes also came in, with a probability of 74.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ranheim win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.92
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.06
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.02
Betfair
4.00
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.32
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.70
BetVictor
4.60
Dafabet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Stromsgodset win✓ Hit
50.1%
Avg Implied 55.5% · @ 1.65
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Dafabet
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ranheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.77
1.85
1.69
1.88
1.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.96
1.68
2.00
1.50
1.94
1.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.40
1.00
2.19
1.21
2.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.75
1.17
2.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
2.17
0.90
2.00
1.62
2.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.4%
@ 1.04+2.3%
Under 1.5
8.6%
@ 8.58-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Under
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.21-0.2%
Under 2.5
24.0%
@ 3.88+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
888Sport
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.3%
@ 1.59-2.5%
Under 3.5
43.7%
@ 2.27+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
BetVictor
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.2%
@ 1.27+1.4%
No
25.8%
@ 3.40-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
No
Betfair
3.70
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.2%@ 8.60+3.0%
1-1
8.0%@ 10.26+3.5%
2-2
7.0%@ 10.09+2.5%
1-3 ✓
6.3%@ 10.19+1.8%
2-1
6.2%@ 13.61+2.9%
2-3
5.3%@ 12.25+1.6%
0-2
4.8%@ 13.52+1.5%
3-2
4.0%@ 19.15+1.6%
Ranheim goals ↓
Stromsgodset goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
3.5%
4.8%
3.7%
2.1%
1
2.5%
8.0%
8.2%
6.3%
3.6%
2
2.7%
6.2%
7.0%
5.3%
3.0%
3
1.5%
3.5%
4.0%
3.0%
1.7%
4
0.7%
1.5%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ranheim goals (down), columns = Stromsgodset goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Ranheim is 1.36 points worse than Stromsgodset in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Ranheim is 0.36 goals better than Stromsgodset in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Ranheim is 1.76 goals worse than Stromsgodset in terms of goals conceded per game (3.33 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ranheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.69
0.69
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.64
0.75
0.50
0.69
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.17
0.56
1.00
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.58
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.50
0.80
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ranheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ranheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.03
1.15
1.00
1.24
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.25
1.04
1.25
1.00
1.25
1.06
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.23
0.44
1.19
0.71
1.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.17
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.72
1.28
0.40
1.20
1.12
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ranheim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
76.0%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
888Sport
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
-0.2%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
74.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
+1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stromsgodset · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Therkelsen29%
Marko Farji24%
Jesper Taaje15%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Alie Conteh12%
Logi Tomasson11%
Herman Stengel10%
Nikolaj Möller10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Gustav Valsvik7%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl7%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Marcus Mehnert5%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Elias Hoff Melkersen0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
James Ampofo0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Johan Johanessen Bakke25%
Logi Tomasson22%
Marko Farji21%
Jesper Taaje19%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa17%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Gustav Valsvik14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
James Ampofo8%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Bent Sormo5%
Per Kristian Bråtveit4%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl3%
Eirik Johansen0%
Herman Stengel0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Alie Conteh0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gustav Wikheim21%
James Ampofo17%
Marko Farji14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik11%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl10%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa10%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Johan Johanessen Bakke6%
Alie Conteh6%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Logi Tomasson0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alie Conteh31%
Marko Farji28%
Logi Tomasson22%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Gustav Wikheim0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Marcus Mehnert0%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
James Ampofo0%
Ole Kristian Enersen0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Ranheim's squad is €3m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Ranheim's attack is €2m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Ranheim and Stromsgodset have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Ranheim and Stromsgodset have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →