PythiaFootballBETA
Rapid Vienna, on a 4-game winning run, are expected to continue their form at home against Grazer AK. The model predicts a home win, with a 56% chance of Rapid Vienna taking the three points, a 26% chance of a draw, and an 18% chance of Grazer AK emerging victorious.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely outcome being a 2-0 scoreline, although this has a low probability of 27%. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%.
Rapid Vienna have been scoring 1.12 goals on average at home, while conceding 1.38. They have a similar opponent strength at home. Grazer AK, meanwhile, have been scoring 1.0 goal on average away from home against similar opponents, conceding 1.33.
The model's selections are Under 3.5, with a 74.9% chance, and Over 1.5, with a 73.2% chance. Rapid Vienna have a 56% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 18% chance of losing, while Grazer AK have a 18% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 56% chance of losing.
Rapid Vienna's 8-0 thrashing of Grazer AK extends their 5-game winning run, with their most recent match also ending in an 8-0 victory. The actual result was a home win, which was correctly predicted by the model. The model's selection, home win, had a pre-match probability of 56%. In contrast, the model's selection of under 3.5 goals missed, with a probability of 74.9%, while over 1.5 goals hit, with a 73.2% probability. The expected total goals was 2.5, with the most likely total being 2, but the actual score was far from that, with 8 goals scored by Rapid Vienna.
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.83 | 1.92 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.57 | 2.29 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.53 | 1.20 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Grazer AK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.23 | 1.79 | 1.07 | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.55 | 1.18 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Grazer AK goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Rapid ViennaGrazer AKRapid Vienna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 21.0 | 30.0 |
| vs Similar (22) | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 25.4 | 25.9 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 22.7 | 23.1 | 22.4 |
| % over line | 50% | 52% | 48% | 52% | 45% | 57% | 70% | 67% | 74% |
| % under line | 50% | 48% | 52% | 48% | 55% | 43% | 30% | 33% | 26% |
Grazer AK| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 23.2 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 22.7 |
| vs Similar (35) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 23.5 | 23.9 | 23.1 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 33% | 50% | 60% | 79% | 42% | 67% | 71% | 62% |
| % under line | 58% | 67% | 50% | 40% | 21% | 58% | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Grazer AK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.81 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 1.08 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Grazer AK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.91 | 0.64 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home or Draw | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.8% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | - | +5.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | +6.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.2% | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | -1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 73.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/03/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 27/10/24 | A | 1-1 |
Rapid Vienna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 3-1 |
Grazer AK| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.5 | 50% | 46 | 16 | 10 | 19 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 56% |
| 2 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 7.8 | 25% | 4.2 | 75% | 23.0 | 75% | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 49% |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 12.8 | 50% | 3.3 | 33% | 14.8 | 0% | 105 | 47 | 29 | 29 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 60% |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 80% | 20% | 20% | 13.2 | 80% | 4.8 | 80% | 20.0 | 40% | 52 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 5 |  TSV Hartberg | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 13.0 | 80% | 3.2 | 25% | 18.6 | 20% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 39% |
| 6 |  Wolfsberger AC | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | 11.2 | 75% | 4.5 | 50% | 22.2 | 50% | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 51% |
| 7 |  Austria Lustenau | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | 14.4 | 100% | 4.0 | 40% | 20.2 | 40% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 8 |  WSG Wattens | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 11.0 | 25% | 3.2 | 25% | 20.5 | 25% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 9 |  Ried | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.0 | 60% | 20.4 | 40% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 20% | 10.8 | 60% | 4.6 | 60% | 23.4 | 80% | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 48% |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 19.2 | 40% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 12 |  Austria Vienna | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.8 | 25% | 18.2 | 25% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 49% |