Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 35% for a home victory, 28% for a draw, and 37% for an away triumph. The expected total of goals sits at 2.8, yet the most probable total is two goals, with a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Rapid Vienna, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Sturm Graz, away, averages 1.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (97.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.8% with a 5% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0% with a 6% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5% with a 3% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early: Rapid Vienna, unbeaten in their last five, snatched a 3-1 win over Sturm Graz, overturning the model’s favourite of an away victory. The pre-match pick had a 37% probability, but the result proved the model wrong. Every suggested selection, however, proved accurate: Under 7.5 (99.2%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.7%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.8%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (95.0%) hit, and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%) hit. Rapid’s form and Sturm’s recent defeat set the stage for a surprising home triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rapid Vienna win✓ Hit
35.1%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.14
Edge
-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Dafabet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.70
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
BetVictor
3.75
Sturm Graz win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 3.01
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Pinnacle
3.05
1xBet
3.02
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rapid Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.17
1.67
0.87
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.58
1.17
1.33
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (15)
2.00
1.07
2.29
0.71
1.75
1.38
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.97
1.00
0.67
1.67
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.57
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.95
1.11
0.67
2.10
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.17-2.1%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 4.59+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
5.05
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.58-6.9%
Under 2.5
47.6%
@ 2.31+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.2%
@ 2.44-7.9%
Under 3.5
69.8%
@ 1.50+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.49-4.5%
No
42.5%
@ 2.43+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.85+6.7%
1-2
8.5%@ 9.91+4.0%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.26+2.8%
0-1
7.6%@ 11.46+3.7%
0-0
7.4%@ 13.57+4.2%
1-0
7.3%@ 9.69+2.7%
0-2
6.2%@ 16.38+3.5%
2-0
5.8%@ 11.63+2.0%
Rapid Vienna goals ↓
Sturm Graz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.6%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.3%
13%
8.5%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.2%
5.8%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.6%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rapid Vienna goals (down), columns = Sturm Graz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Rapid Vienna is 0.80 points better than Sturm Graz in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Rapid Vienna is 1.80 goals better than Sturm Graz in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Rapid Vienna is 0.40 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Rapid Vienna is 1.6 percentage points better than Sturm Graz in terms of average possession (56% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rapid Vienna
For 6.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
For 7.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rapid Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.5
9.3
3.7
4.0
3.4
24.4
24.8
24.1
vs Stronger (4)
8.2
8.0
8.5
5.2
3.5
7.0
25.5
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (23)
9.2
9.2
9.3
3.8
4.5
3.1
26.0
27.0
24.8
vs Weaker (23)
9.8
10.3
9.4
3.3
3.6
3.1
22.5
22.9
22.2
% over line
45%
50%
41%
54%
52%
56%
70%
68%
73%
% under line
55%
50%
59%
46%
48%
44%
30%
32%
27%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.4
4.3
4.7
4.1
23.9
24.5
23.3
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
12.5
8.0
4.2
6.0
3.0
29.2
30.0
28.7
vs Similar (17)
9.5
8.7
10.5
4.4
4.2
4.5
24.2
24.0
24.5
vs Weaker (28)
10.2
11.4
9.0
4.4
4.8
4.1
22.5
24.0
21.1
% over line
54%
61%
48%
56%
57%
56%
70%
70%
70%
% under line
46%
39%
52%
44%
43%
44%
30%
30%
30%
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.3
Lask Linz
10.2
WSG Wattens
10.0
Sturm Graz
9.9
TSV Hartberg
9.9
Austria Lustenau
9.8
Wolfsberger AC
9.6
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Red Bull Salzburg
9.3
Grazer AK
9.1
SCR Altach
8.9
Ried
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.7
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
Grazer AK
4.6
Ried
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.4
WSG Wattens
4.3
Rapid Vienna
4.1
Red Bull Salzburg
3.9
Lask Linz
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
24.0
Sturm Graz
23.8
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Austria Vienna
23.1
SCR Altach
23.0
Wolfsberger AC
22.8
Ried
22.5
WSG Wattens
22.5
TSV Hartberg
21.8
Lask Linz
21.0
Red Bull Salzburg
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
@ 1.72+1.0%
Under 9.5
44.9%
@ 2.03-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Under
Superbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.3%
Under 3.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.6%
Under 21.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rapid Vienna or Draw✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.36
Edge
-5.9%
35%
28%
37%
covers Rapid Vienna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.25
Edge
-2.6%
35%
28%
37%
covers Rapid Vienna + Sturm Graz
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Sturm Graz✗ Miss
64.9%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.65
Edge
+8.5%
35%
28%
37%
covers Draw + Sturm Graz
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.4%
@ 1.16-5.4%
Under
25.6%
@ 4.59+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.6%
@ 1.84-11.1%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.89+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Under
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
BetVictor
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.8%
@ 3.63-9.8%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.25+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.81
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Rapid Vienna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 8.12-6.5%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.05+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.6%
@ 1.25+1.4%
Under
24.4%
@ 3.58-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.1%
@ 2.25-0.3%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.59+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 5.01-1.6%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.14+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Sturm Graz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 11.25-2.9%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rapid Vienna, so a minus line means Rapid Vienna give that many goals of a start and Sturm Graz receive them. At -1, Rapid Vienna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rapid Vienna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rapid Vienna)Actual: Draw
Rapid Vienna -2
5.9%
@ 8.05-5.2%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 6.12-4.1%
Sturm Graz +2
83.5%
@ 1.21+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Away
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Rapid Vienna)Actual: Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna -1
16.5%
@ 3.81-7.0%
Draw -1
18.6%
@ 4.00-3.8%
Sturm Graz +1
64.9%
@ 1.66+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
10Bet
3.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Handicap +1 (Rapid Vienna)Actual: Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna +1
62.9%
@ 1.36-2.8%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 4.75+0.4%
Sturm Graz -1
17.9%
@ 5.78+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Handicap +2 (Rapid Vienna)Actual: Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna +2
82.1%
@ 1.11-0.4%
Draw +2
11.3%
@ 8.50+0.5%
Sturm Graz -2
6.6%
@ 13.50-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
11.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rapid Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.87
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.53
1.29
0.43
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.27
0.13
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.37
0.33
0.11
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.27-0.6%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 3.43+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.0%
@ 2.31-1.3%
Under 1.5
61.0%
@ 1.56+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.56
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.26-4.7%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.1%
@ 1.76-5.7%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.97+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.6%
@ 4.70-7.0%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.15+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 12.83-5.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.8%
@ 2.00+3.3%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.74-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 6.07-3.4%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 18.25-2.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rapid Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.29
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.58
0.78
0.56
1.30
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.16-0.9%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.73+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.0%
@ 1.80-7.7%
Under 1.5
56.0%
@ 1.93+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Under
Betano
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.2%
@ 3.44-6.7%
Under 2.5
79.8%
@ 1.27+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.6%
@ 1.51-7.6%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.39+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.30
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.2%
@ 3.44-7.8%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.27+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.40
10Bet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 8.75-6.7%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.50
1xBet
9.20
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.2%
@ 1.69+1.4%
Under
43.8%
@ 2.05-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 4.38-3.9%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.17+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 11.17-4.2%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.15
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
85.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.2%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+9.8%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.27
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.27
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.2%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rapid Vienna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Petter Nosakhare Dahl33%
Ercan Kara29%
Nenad Cvetković25%
Yusuf Demir25%
Moulaye Haïdara25%
M. Tilio22%
L. Schaub20%
J. Horn14%
Bendegúz Bolla12%
S. Raux-Yao11%
M. Seidl11%
Tonni Adamsen11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
Jonas Auer0%
Niklas Hedl0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Jakob Schöller0%
Romeo Amane0%
Eaden Roka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bendegúz Bolla38%
Romeo Amane33%
Jakob Schöller25%
L. Schaub20%
Nenad Cvetković12%
M. Seidl11%
Nicolas Bajlicz11%
Petter Nosakhare Dahl11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
J. Horn0%
Jonas Auer0%
M. Tilio0%
Ercan Kara0%
S. Raux-Yao0%
Yusuf Demir0%
Niklas Hedl0%
Tonni Adamsen0%
Moulaye Haïdara0%
Eaden Roka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Seidl33%
Tonni Adamsen22%
Nicolas Bajlicz22%
Romeo Amane17%
J. Horn14%
Bendegúz Bolla12%
Yusuf Demir12%
Moulaye Haïdara12%
M. Tilio11%
Niklas Hedl11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
L. Schaub0%
Nenad Cvetković0%
Jonas Auer0%
Ercan Kara0%
S. Raux-Yao0%
Jakob Schöller0%
Petter Nosakhare Dahl0%
Eaden Roka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yusuf Demir62%
Ercan Kara57%
Tonni Adamsen22%
Petter Nosakhare Dahl22%
L. Schaub20%
Moulaye Haïdara12%
M. Tilio11%
M. Seidl11%
Nikolaus Wurmbrand11%
J. Horn0%
Bendegúz Bolla0%
Nenad Cvetković0%
Jonas Auer0%
S. Raux-Yao0%
Niklas Hedl0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Jakob Schöller0%
Romeo Amane0%
Eaden Roka0%
Sturm Graz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Seedy Jatta25%
Szymon Włodarczyk17%
Nelson Weiper17%
Belmin Beganović17%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Arjan Malić0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar Petrović0%
Jacob Hödl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Gorenc Stanković38%
Albert Vallci29%
Jurgen Heil25%
Ryan Fosso25%
Jeyland Mitchell20%
Axel Kayombo20%
Nelson Weiper17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Luca Weinhandl14%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Jacob Hödl12%
Paul Koller0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Belmin Beganović0%
Arjan Malić0%
Petar Petrović0%
Luís Balbo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simon Seidl38%
Jon Gorenc Stanković12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Belmin Beganović0%
Arjan Malić0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar Petrović0%
Jacob Hödl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jacob Hödl25%
Axel Kayombo20%
Szymon Włodarczyk17%
Belmin Beganović17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Simon Seidl12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Emran Soglo0%
Arjan Malić0%
Petar Petrović0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Rapid Vienna's squad is €7m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€46m vs €52m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Rapid Vienna's attack is €9m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€16m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Rapid Vienna's midfield is €4m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€10m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Rapid Vienna's defence is €6m more valuable than Sturm Graz's (€19m vs €13m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna