This highly anticipated matchup between Raufoss and Asane in the Norway: 1. Division is shaping up to be a closely contested affair. The recent form of both teams has been underwhelming, with Raufoss suffering two straight defeats after a promising start, while Asane has also struggled, dropping two of their last four matches.
The model predicts a home win for Raufoss, with a 38% probability of a home victory, 27% chance of a draw, and 35% probability of an Asane win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability.
Raufoss has been averaging 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Asane averages 1.14 goals scored and 2 conceded when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.3% probability, offering an edge for Raufoss.
Results analysis
Raufoss's 1-2 loss to Asane extends their recent run of three straight defeats after a 1-2 loss to the same opponent in their last meeting. The actual result was an away win, a surprise to many as Asane had been coming off a win. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, with the model's selection also falling short. The model had picked a home win with a 38% probability, but it was incorrect. The model's selection had a 38% chance of success, but it was not the case. The model's selection was not the favourite, however, as Asane's selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 80.3% probability, and the most likely total goals score was 2, with a 24% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raufoss win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied 48.3% · @ 1.90
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Dafabet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.68
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
Asane win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.67
Marathonbet
3.62
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Dafabet
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.10
1.08
1.46
1.53
2.59
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
2.21
0.57
1.43
0.86
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.88
2.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
2.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asane
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.17
1.47
2.07
1.13
2.27
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
2.45
1.17
2.67
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
1.44
2.00
1.67
1.67
1.22
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.16+0.2%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 4.67-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.17
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.60
Unibet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.54-3.9%
Under 2.5
43.7%
@ 2.33+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Betano
1.57
BetVictor
1.56
Under
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.32
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
@ 2.37-5.5%
Under 3.5
66.1%
@ 1.54+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Marathonbet
2.42
888Sport
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
@ 1.49-1.5%
No
39.6%
@ 2.42+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
No
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.43
1xBet
2.42
888Sport
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.93+6.2%
2-1
8.6%@ 7.71+2.9%
1-2 ✓
8.2%@ 10.68+4.1%
1-0
6.8%@ 9.35+2.1%
0-0
6.4%@ 14.18+3.3%
0-1
6.4%@ 12.75+3.0%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.71+2.0%
2-0
6.0%@ 10.28+1.7%
Raufoss goals ↓
Asane goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.4%
5.4%
2.6%
0.9%
1
6.8%
13%
8.2%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.6%
6.2%
2.9%
1.1%
3
3.0%
4.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Asane goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Raufoss is 0.33 points worse than Asane in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Raufoss is 0.67 goals worse than Asane in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Raufoss is 0.67 goals worse than Asane in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raufoss or Draw✗ Miss
65.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Raufoss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss or Asane✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Raufoss + Asane
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Asane✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + Asane
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.54
0.69
0.76
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.64
0.29
0.57
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.06
0.83
0.83
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asane
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.87
0.80
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.67
0.83
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.06
1.00
0.78
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.23
0.54
0.77
0.76
1.59
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.57
0.29
0.86
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
0.83
0.67
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asane
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.60
1.27
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.55
0.50
1.83
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Raufoss and Asane have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Raufoss and Asane have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Raufoss and Asane have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Raufoss and Asane have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Moss