The encounter between Raufoss and Moss is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win at 36%. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% probability. Raufoss, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Moss on the road averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 36% for a Raufoss victory, 28% for a draw, and 36% for a Moss win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Under 4.5 (86.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.0%), and Away under 2.5 goals (84.9%). Raufoss have suffered five straight defeats, while Moss return after a loss, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raufoss win
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss win
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.23
1.07
1.71
1.56
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.33
0.67
1.67
0.83
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.72
2.17
1.38
1.75
2.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.10
1.79
2.21
0.81
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
2.00
1.85
2.00
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.2%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
0-2
6.2%
2-0
6.2%
Raufoss goals ↓
Moss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.1%
6.2%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.0%
14%
8.2%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.2%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.7%
3.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Moss goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Raufoss is 0.21 points better than Moss in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Raufoss is 0.29 goals worse than Moss in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Raufoss is 0.71 goals worse than Moss in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raufoss or Draw
64.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
36%
covers Raufoss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss or Moss
71.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
36%
covers Raufoss + Moss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Moss
64.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
36%
covers Draw + Moss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raufoss over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raufoss, so a minus line means Raufoss give that many goals of a start and Moss receive them. At -1, Raufoss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raufoss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Raufoss)
Raufoss -2
5.9%
Draw -2
10.7%
Moss +2
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Raufoss)
Raufoss -1
16.6%
Draw -1
19.1%
Moss +1
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Raufoss)
Raufoss +1
64.2%
Draw +1
19.1%
Moss -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Raufoss)
Raufoss +2
83.3%
Draw +2
10.8%
Moss -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.57
0.79
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.17
0.75
0.88
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.71
1.21
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
1.04
0.77
1.08
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.50
0.93
0.75
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.00
0.62
0.88
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.07
1.00
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.96
1.08
0.92
0.53
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Raufoss's squad is €2m less valuable than Moss's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Raufoss's attack is €1m less valuable than Moss's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Raufoss and Moss have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Raufoss and Moss have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim