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Raufoss vs Stabaek Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 15:15
Final 0-2
Raufoss
Raufoss
Vs
38%
26%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stabaek
Stabaek
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Raufoss and Stabaek are set to face off in a closely contested match, with the home side's recent struggles against Haugesund still fresh in their minds. After two straight defeats, Raufoss will look to bounce back against a Stabaek side that's riding a three-game winning streak. The model predicts a home win for Raufoss, with a 38% chance of victory, 26% chance of a draw, and 36% chance of an away win.

The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.3%.

Raufoss has been averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded at home, while Stabaek has been averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.93 goals conceded away from home against similar opponents.

The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 81.3%. This selection has been a hit, suggesting that Raufoss and Stabaek are likely to score more than 1.5 goals each.

The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 36%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a probability of 81.3%, while the home win has a probability of 38%.

Results analysis

The 0-2 scoreline brought an end to Raufoss's recent struggles, extending their winless streak to four matches. However, the home team's form was overshadowed by Stabaek's away success, a result that has seen them win three of their last four games. The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialize as the model's selection, with a 38% probability of occurrence, was proven wrong. The model's call was incorrect. In contrast, the model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.3% probability of occurrence, as the final score was a low-scoring 0-2. Stabaek's away win was the actual result, a surprise given their recent form had been away from home.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Raufoss win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.55
Edge
+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.02
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.79
Betano
4.65
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.28
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.62
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.40
Dafabet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Stabaek win✓ Hit
35.6%
Avg Implied 58.3% · @ 1.58
Edge
-22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L12L04L04L13L41W01L11D21WH·AAL13/09A·STA21/09H·RAN29/09A·STA04/10A·EGE18/10H·SOG22/10A·SKE25/10H·MJO02/11A·MOS08/11A·MOS26/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.901.081.381.472.29
vs Stronger (14)0.712.140.571.290.863.00
vs Similar (16)1.811.691.671.501.901.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StabaekStabaek

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W16L22D50W20W31W23L15L03L60WH·RAU21/09A·BJA24/09H·ODD05/10A·SKE18/10H·ASA22/10A·HOD25/10A·MJO29/10H·LYN02/11A·LIL08/11H·HOD27/07
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.872.271.801.801.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.652.301.922.251.362.36
vs Weaker (7)3.290.433.670.003.000.75
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.09-4.2%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 6.45+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Pinnacle
6.85
Marathonbet
6.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.9%
@ 1.35-11.0%
Under 2.5
42.1%
@ 2.98+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Bet365
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.5%
@ 1.90-13.6%
Under 3.5
64.5%
@ 1.83+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
SBO
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
888Sport
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
SBO
1.86
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.41-3.8%
No
38.4%
@ 2.67+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
No
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.73
BetVictor
2.70
888Sport
2.70
William Hil
2.70

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 8.62+7.1%
2-1
8.5%@ 13.59+5.3%
1-2
8.2%@ 7.73+2.5%
1-0
6.4%@ 20.29+4.2%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.88+2.2%
0-1
6.2%@ 11.18+2.2%
0-0
6.1%@ 21.40+4.0%
2-0
5.8%@ 29.78+4.3%
Raufoss goals ↓
Stabaek goals →
01234
06.1%6.2%5.4%2.7%1.0%
16.4%12%8.2%4.1%1.5%
25.8%8.5%6.3%3.1%1.1%
33.0%4.4%3.2%1.6%0.6%
41.1%1.7%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Stabaek goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kongsvinger
1.74
Egersund
1.72
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Haugesund
1.54
Stromsgodset
1.48
Sogndal
1.43
Bryne
1.42
Sandnes ULF
1.23
Strommen
1.11
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
hodd
1.10
Stabaek
1.03
Asane
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Raufoss is 0.03 points worse than Stabaek in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kongsvinger
2.10
Haugesund
1.79
Egersund
1.72
Stromsgodset
1.72
Bryne
1.65
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.43
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Strommen
1.29
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
hodd
1.13
Raufoss is 0.07 goals worse than Stabaek in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lyn
1.23
Egersund
1.34
Haugesund
1.40
Stromsgodset
1.46
Bryne
1.51
Kongsvinger
1.52
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Sandnes ULF
1.74
Stabaek
1.77
Asane
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Strommen
1.93
Moss
2.12
Raufoss is 0.10 goals worse than Stabaek in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RaufossRaufoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D00D02L12L20W00D00D11DH·AAL13/09A·STA21/09H·RAN29/09A·STA04/10A·EGE18/10H·SOG22/10A·SKE25/10H·MJO02/11A·MOS08/11A·MOS26/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.540.770.710.82
vs Stronger (14)0.360.710.290.710.430.71
vs Similar (16)0.880.880.830.830.900.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StabaekStabaek

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L21W20W10W21W21W02L01L30WH·RAU21/09A·BJA24/09H·ODD05/10A·SKE18/10H·ASA22/10A·HOD25/10A·MJO29/10H·LYN02/11A·LIL08/11H·HOD27/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.670.930.670.930.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.780.780.750.830.820.73
vs Weaker (7)1.430.291.670.001.250.50
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RaufossRaufoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L01L04L02L01L21W01L11D10WH·AAL13/09A·STA21/09H·RAN29/09A·STA04/10A·EGE18/10H·SOG22/10A·SKE25/10H·MJO02/11A·MOS08/11A·MOS26/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.100.540.620.761.47
vs Stronger (14)0.361.430.290.570.432.29
vs Similar (16)0.940.810.830.671.000.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StabaekStabaek

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W04L01L30W10W10W02L13L02L30WH·RAU21/09A·BJA24/09H·ODD05/10A·SKE18/10H·ASA22/10A·HOD25/10A·MJO29/10H·LYN02/11A·LIL08/11H·HOD27/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.201.331.130.871.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.871.521.171.420.551.64
vs Weaker (7)1.860.142.000.001.750.25
Clean sheet %37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.3%1.09
Pinnacle
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-4.2%✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (27)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (25)
€9m
STR (23)
€7m
BRY (23)
€6m
KON (26)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (21)
€4m
MOS (24)
€4m
LYN (25)
€4m
RAN (23)
€4m
HOD (21)
€3m
ASA (24)
€3m
SU (22)
€3m
RAU (21)
€2m
STR (24)
€2m
Raufoss's squad is €7m less valuable than Stabaek's (€2m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASA (0)
€0m
BRY (0)
€0m
EGE (0)
€0m
HAU (0)
€0m
HOD (0)
€0m
KON (0)
€0m
LYN (0)
€0m
MOS (0)
€0m
OB (0)
€0m
RAN (0)
€0m
RAU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
SOG (0)
€0m
STA (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASA (0)
€0m
BRY (0)
€0m
EGE (0)
€0m
HAU (0)
€0m
HOD (0)
€0m
KON (0)
€0m
LYN (0)
€0m
MOS (0)
€0m
OB (0)
€0m
RAN (0)
€0m
RAU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
SOG (0)
€0m
STA (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASA (0)
€0m
BRY (0)
€0m
EGE (0)
€0m
HAU (0)
€0m
HOD (0)
€0m
KON (0)
€0m
LYN (0)
€0m
MOS (0)
€0m
OB (0)
€0m
RAN (0)
€0m
RAU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
SOG (0)
€0m
STA (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
RAU wins
1
Draws
3
STA wins

Head-to-head

Raufoss vs Stabaek · H/A from RAU
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25AStabaek Vs RAU3-0
24/05/25HRAU Vs Stabaek1-0
16/09/24AStabaek Vs RAU1-2
20/07/24HRAU Vs Stabaek0-0
12/09/22AStabaek Vs RAU2-0
22/05/22HRAU Vs Stabaek0-4

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26AMoss Vs RAU1-2
08/11/25AMoss Vs RAU1-1
02/11/25HRAU Vs Mjondalen0-1
25/10/25ASkeid Vs RAU1-4
22/10/25HRAU Vs Sogndal1-3
18/10/25AEgersund Vs RAU4-0
04/10/25AStart Vs RAU4-0
29/09/25HRAU Vs Ranheim1-2
21/09/25AStabaek Vs RAU3-0
13/09/25HRAU Vs Aalesund0-1

StabaekStabaek

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26HSTA Vs hodd6-0
08/11/25ALillestrom Vs STA3-0
02/11/25HSTA Vs Lyn1-5
29/10/25AMjondalen Vs STA3-2
25/10/25Ahodd Vs STA1-3
22/10/25HSTA Vs Asane2-0
18/10/25ASkeid Vs STA0-5
05/10/25HSTA Vs ODD Ballklubb2-2
24/09/25ABjarg Vs STA6-1
21/09/25HSTA Vs Raufoss3-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.16
HomeLLLLL1.09
AwayLLWDW1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%26%33%
AVG goals3.082.783.33
Over 1.5 %82%74%89%
Over 2.5 %64%48%78%
Over 3.5 %36%30%41%
Scored1.401.351.44
Conceded1.681.431.89
BTTS66%61%70%
Clean Sheet8%9%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Stabaek
Stabaek
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.24
HomeWDWLW1.20
AwayLWWLL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%36%
AVG goals3.623.723.52
Over 1.5 %94%96%92%
Over 2.5 %76%80%72%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.821.881.76
Conceded1.801.841.76
BTTS66%72%60%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BryneBryne613
67%
2.2
85+3
2.2
83%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.30.8
-
2StabaekStabaek412
100%
3.0
163+13
4.8
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0004.00.8
-
3hoddhodd512
80%
2.4
1416-2
6.0
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.83.2
-
4EgersundEgersund510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0002.01.4
-
5HaugesundHaugesund59
60%
1.8
1711+6
5.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0003.42.2
-
6KongsvingerKongsvinger49
75%
2.2
127+5
4.8
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0003.01.8
-
7LynLyn47
50%
1.8
128+4
5.0
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0003.02.0
-
8StromsgodsetStromsgodset57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
0001.81.6
-
9SogndalSogndal46
50%
1.5
77+0
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.81.8
-
10ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb55
20%
1.0
912-3
4.2
80%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0001.82.4
-
11StrommenStrommen44
25%
1.0
79-2
4.0
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.82.2
-
12AsaneAsane44
25%
1.0
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.82.5
-
13RanheimRanheim43
25%
0.8
1011-1
5.2
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0002.52.8
-
14RaufossRaufoss43
25%
0.8
512-7
4.2
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.23.0
-
15MossMoss51
0%
0.2
612-6
3.6
100%
100%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.22.4
-
16Sandnes ULFSandnes ULF61
0%
0.2
516-11
3.5
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.82.7
-
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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