Raufoss’ recent slump of three straight defeats leaves them vulnerable at home, while Stromsgodset arrive on a two-game winning streak and a 6-0 demolition of Modum FK. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning it a 62 % chance versus 17 % for a home win and 21 % for a draw. The expected total is 3.4 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-2 for Stromsgodset at 9.7 %. Raufoss averages 1.57 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Stromsgodset’s away form shows 1.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded, underscoring their offensive edge. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3 %), Under 6.5 (94.3 %), Away +2 handicap (93.5 %), Away over 0.5 goals (89.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (89.6 %), Under 5.5 (87.2 %) and Over 1.5 (86.1 %). Each pick is presented with its probability, and the edge percentages are omitted where not provided.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raufoss win
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset win
67.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.23
1.07
1.71
1.56
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.33
0.67
1.67
0.83
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.72
2.17
1.38
1.75
2.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.29
2.07
1.69
2.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.75
1.17
2.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.65
1.94
1.38
1.75
1.89
2.11
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.3%
Under 2.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.0%
Under 3.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.8%
1-1
8.3%
1-3
7.9%
0-3
7.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.0%
1-4
4.9%
Raufoss goals ↓
Stromsgodset goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
6.3%
8.8%
7.4%
4.6%
1
2.2%
8.3%
9.4%
7.9%
4.9%
2
1.6%
4.0%
5.0%
4.2%
2.6%
3
0.6%
1.4%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Stromsgodset goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Raufoss is 1.36 points worse than Stromsgodset in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Raufoss is 1.14 goals worse than Stromsgodset in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Raufoss is 1.43 goals worse than Stromsgodset in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raufoss or Draw
32.1%
Avg Implied -
14%
19%
68%
covers Raufoss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss or Stromsgodset
81.4%
Avg Implied -
14%
19%
68%
covers Raufoss + Stromsgodset
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stromsgodset
86.5%
Avg Implied -
14%
19%
68%
covers Draw + Stromsgodset
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raufoss over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 3.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raufoss, so a minus line means Raufoss give that many goals of a start and Stromsgodset receive them. At -1, Raufoss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raufoss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Raufoss)
Raufoss -2
1.4%
Draw -2
3.6%
Stromsgodset +2
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Raufoss)
Raufoss -1
5.0%
Draw -1
8.5%
Stromsgodset +1
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Raufoss)
Raufoss +1
32.1%
Draw +1
20.9%
Stromsgodset -1
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Raufoss)
Raufoss +2
53.0%
Draw +2
19.8%
Stromsgodset -2
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.57
0.79
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.17
0.75
0.88
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.58
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.76
0.50
0.75
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.50
0.93
0.75
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.00
0.62
0.88
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.71
1.07
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.17
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.18
0.88
1.00
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stromsgodset · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Therkelsen29%
Marko Farji24%
Jesper Taaje15%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Alie Conteh12%
Logi Tomasson11%
Herman Stengel10%
Nikolaj Möller10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Gustav Valsvik7%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl7%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Marcus Mehnert5%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Elias Hoff Melkersen0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
James Ampofo0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Johan Johanessen Bakke25%
Logi Tomasson22%
Marko Farji21%
Jesper Taaje19%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa17%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Gustav Valsvik14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
James Ampofo8%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Bent Sormo5%
Per Kristian Bråtveit4%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl3%
Eirik Johansen0%
Herman Stengel0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Alie Conteh0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gustav Wikheim21%
James Ampofo17%
Marko Farji14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik11%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl10%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa10%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Johan Johanessen Bakke6%
Alie Conteh6%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Logi Tomasson0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alie Conteh31%
Marko Farji28%
Logi Tomasson22%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Gustav Wikheim0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Marcus Mehnert0%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
James Ampofo0%
Ole Kristian Enersen0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Raufoss's squad is €5m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€2m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Raufoss's attack is €3m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Raufoss's midfield is €1m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Raufoss and Stromsgodset have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Moss