Real Madrid are the clear favourites, with a 56% chance of victory, compared to 18% for Rayo Vallecano and 26% for a draw. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% chance. Rayo Vallecano, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Real Madrid, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.33 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (83.4%), Over 2.5 cards (82.7%), Over 1.5 (74.2%), Under 3.5 (73.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (70.6%), and Under 5.5 cards (70.2%). The modelâs selections reflect a high likelihood of a busy, high-foul game, but the outcome favours a Real Madrid win.
Results analysis
The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, Real Madrid, failed to win, leaving the match a 0-0 draw. The model had picked an away win with a 56% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-0 matched the most likely outcome, though the modelâs predicted total of 2.6 goals did not materialise. The suggested picks performed mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.4%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 82.7%, Over 1.5 missed at 74.2%, Under 3.5 hit at 73.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 70.6%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 70.2%. Rayo Vallecanoâs recent form shows a dip after a loss to Barcelona, while Real Madrid continued a five-game winning streak, yet the game ended in a stalemate.
đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Rayo Vallecano winâ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied 15.8% · @ 5.93
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.64
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid winâ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied 63.9% · @ 1.47
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
✠2. Goal Analysis
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.27
1.36
1.07
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.71
2.29
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.95
1.27
1.09
1.75
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.17
2.06
1.06
2.00
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
2.25
1.33
1.00
1.40
3.00
vs Weaker (22)
2.27
0.77
2.23
1.08
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.57-11.5%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 2.30+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
11.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-0 â
8.6%
0-3
6.3%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
5.4%
Rayo Vallecano goals ↓
Real Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
12%
11%
6.3%
2.7%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.5%
2.4%
2
2.9%
4.9%
4.2%
2.4%
1.0%
3
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rayo Vallecano goals (down), columns = Real Madrid goals (across).
đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Sevilla
1.13
Levante
1.11
Mallorca
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Girona
1.08
Oviedo
0.76
Rayo Vallecano is 0.95 points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 2.26).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Mallorca
1.24
Valencia
1.21
Sevilla
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Girona
1.03
Getafe
0.84
Oviedo
0.68
Rayo Vallecano is 0.95 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 2.03).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Girona
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Mallorca
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Oviedo
1.58
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Rayo Vallecano is 0.24 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 0.92).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Girona
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Mallorca
47%
Osasuna
47%
Oviedo
46%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Rayo Vallecano is 5.9 percentage points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average possession (53% vs 59%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.89
0.00
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.37
0.36
0.36
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.36
0.92
0.54
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
1.50
0.50
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.58
0.91
0.73
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.19
0.56
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.25
0.67
0.67
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.27
0.41
1.31
0.54
1.22
0.22
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
Rayo Vallecano's squad is €1381m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€76m vs €1456m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
Rayo Vallecano's attack is €812m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€30m vs €842m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
OVI (4)
€6m
Rayo Vallecano's midfield is €228m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€9m vs €238m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
OVI (8)
€10m
Rayo Vallecano's defence is €341m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€36m vs €377m).
Spain: La Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
Getafe
Valencia
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Elche
Alaves
Sevilla
Osasuna
Mallorca
Levante
Girona
Oviedo