Reading and Mansfield face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds show a 40% chance for Reading, 29% for a draw and 32% for Mansfield. The average goal tally is 2.6, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% chance. Reading’s home form against similar opposition sees them average 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Mansfield’s away form shows 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (98.2% edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% edge 4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% edge 4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.4% edge 3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% edge 4%) and Under 5.5 (95.0% edge 3%).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Reading secured a 5-0 victory, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 40% probability and the result matched the actual outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 (99.4%) and Under 6.5 (98.2%) both came in, as did Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%). Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%) missed, but the other picks - Under 5.5 (95.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%), and Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%) - were successful. The final score of 5-0 confirmed the model’s accurate assessment.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Reading win✓ Hit
39.8%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 2.05
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.06
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.60
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.91
BetVictor
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
Mansfield win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.27
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.35
Bet365
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Reading
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.30
1.77
1.54
1.41
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
2.33
1.67
1.75
1.75
3.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.21
1.78
1.44
1.13
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
1.75
1.44
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
2.00
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.00
1.25
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.00
1.67
1.17
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
@ 1.20-2.9%
Under 1.5
25.2%
@ 4.17+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.72
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
@ 1.67-7.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
@ 2.15+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.21
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.8%
@ 2.60-8.9%
Under 3.5
73.2%
@ 1.44+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.63
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
@ 1.56-4.9%
No
45.7%
@ 2.27+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.55
No
Superbet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.66+7.0%
1-0
9.0%@ 8.49+3.7%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.97+3.1%
0-0
8.5%@ 12.11+4.8%
0-1
7.7%@ 11.19+3.7%
1-2
7.6%@ 10.61+3.4%
2-0
7.1%@ 10.44+2.8%
0-2
5.4%@ 16.80+2.8%
Reading goals ↓
Mansfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.7%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
1
9.0%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.1%
8.7%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Reading goals (down), columns = Mansfield goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Reading is 0.04 points worse than Mansfield in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Reading is 0.04 goals better than Mansfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Reading is 0.22 goals worse than Mansfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Reading is 4.3 percentage points better than Mansfield in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Reading
For 4.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mansfield
For 5.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 9.3 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reading
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.5
3.5
3.4
3.7
22.6
21.4
23.7
vs Stronger (10)
7.9
6.8
9.0
3.6
3.2
4.0
22.3
21.2
23.4
vs Similar (39)
9.6
9.7
9.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.7
21.5
23.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
35%
42%
50%
42%
58%
59%
57%
62%
% under line
61%
65%
58%
50%
58%
42%
41%
43%
38%
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.7
3.5
3.8
22.4
21.9
22.8
vs Stronger (11)
10.0
9.8
10.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
22.3
23.0
21.4
vs Similar (37)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.7
3.4
3.9
22.4
21.6
23.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
44%
46%
42%
48%
44%
52%
56%
50%
62%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
52%
56%
48%
44%
50%
38%
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Burton
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Doncaster
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.8
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.9%
@ 1.77-1.3%
Under 9.5
49.1%
@ 1.94+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Under
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.5%
Under 21.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Reading or Draw✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.30
Edge
-3.3%
40%
29%
32%
covers Reading + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Reading or Mansfield✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.25
Edge
-3.2%
40%
29%
32%
covers Reading + Mansfield
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Mansfield✗ Miss
60.2%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.74
Edge
+6.5%
40%
29%
32%
covers Draw + Mansfield
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Reading over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
@ 1.16-4.6%
Under
24.7%
@ 4.62+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.65
Reading over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.8%
@ 1.84-9.7%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.87+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Unibet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.87
Reading over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.6%
@ 3.67-8.7%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.25+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Reading over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.4%
@ 7.90-6.5%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.06+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.10
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Mansfield over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.5%
@ 1.30-0.9%
Under
29.5%
@ 3.25+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.47
Superbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Mansfield over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.5%
@ 2.48-3.1%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.49+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.54
Unibet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Mansfield over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 5.91-3.2%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.10+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Mansfield over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 14.33-3.1%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Reading, so a minus line means Reading give that many goals of a start and Mansfield receive them. At -1, Reading must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Reading win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Reading)Actual: Reading
Reading -2
7.2%
@ 7.34-5.0%
Draw -2
12.2%
@ 5.76-3.3%
Mansfield +2
80.7%
@ 1.23+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Reading)Actual: Reading
Reading -1
19.3%
@ 3.61-5.4%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.79-3.1%
Mansfield +1
60.2%
@ 1.73+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Handicap +1 (Reading)Actual: Reading
Reading +1
68.5%
@ 1.31-0.1%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 4.98-0.3%
Mansfield -1
13.8%
@ 6.68+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Reading)Actual: Reading
Reading +2
86.2%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 9.60-0.3%
Mansfield -2
4.5%
@ 16.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.30
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Reading
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.08
0.46
0.71
0.35
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.38
0.89
0.44
0.53
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.75
1.25
0.75
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.23
0.58
0.25
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.7%
@ 1.31-2.5%
Under 0.5
31.3%
@ 3.24+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.41-6.5%
Under 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.51+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 5.63-3.8%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.11+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Reading over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.8%
@ 1.76-1.0%
Under
48.2%
@ 1.97+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Reading over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.2%
@ 4.68-6.6%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.15+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Reading over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.2%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Mansfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.6%
@ 2.12-4.2%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.65+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Mansfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 6.66-4.4%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Mansfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 20.17-3.5%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Reading
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.69
1.08
0.71
0.76
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.25
1.25
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.83
0.89
1.00
0.60
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.00
1.06
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.77
1.08
0.92
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.17-2.2%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 4.49+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Under
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 1.86-9.9%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.86+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 3.60-7.3%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.25+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Reading over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.2%
@ 1.56-3.2%
Under
43.8%
@ 2.29+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.37
Superbet
2.35
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.01
Reading over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.1%
@ 3.46-9.6%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.26+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Reading over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 9.00-5.8%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.10
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Mansfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 1.78-6.1%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.94+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
Mansfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 4.75-5.3%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Mansfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 13.42-4.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.5%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
+6.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.15
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
1.08
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
1.25
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+8.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
10Bet
1.44
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
1.34
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.30
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.3%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
-0.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Reading
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Brown50%
J. Marriott33%
George Earthy33%
R. Williams25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
C. Savage0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Rinomhota33%
P. O'Connor33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Joel Pereira25%
R. Williams25%
C. Savage25%
Benn Ward25%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
J. Brown0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
P. Lane0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
L. Wing33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Kyreece Lisbie33%
R. Williams25%
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Benn Ward0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
R. Williams0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Mansfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Smith33%
Jon Russell33%
L. Reed25%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
R. Oates0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
R. Hendry0%
L. Thompson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Sweeney50%
L. Reed50%
R. Oates25%
R. Hendry25%
L. Thompson25%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
M. Smith0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
Jon Russell0%
N. Moriah-Welsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jon Russell33%
R. Oates25%
R. Hendry25%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
M. Smith0%
L. Reed0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
L. Thompson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. McGoldrick33%
Jon Russell33%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
R. Oates0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
M. Smith0%
L. Reed0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
R. Hendry0%
L. Thompson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Reading's squad is €3m more valuable than Mansfield's (€10m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Reading's attack is €2m more valuable than Mansfield's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Reading and Mansfield have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Reading's defence is €2m more valuable than Mansfield's (€4m vs €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Leicester
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe