Real Ávila vs Rayo Vallecano Result & Analysis

The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

The handicap is applied to Real Ávila, so a minus line means Real Ávila give that many goals of a start and Rayo Vallecano receive them. At -1, Real Ávila must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Ávila win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.