Real Betis face Getafe in a tightly contested La Liga fixture where the model favours a home win. The odds are almost even, with a 40% chance of Betis triumph, a 30% draw, and a 30% chance of Getafe. The expected goal total is 2.5, with the most likely overall tally being two goals, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.1% chance. Betis, playing at home against a weaker side, normally scores an average of two goals and concedes none, while Getafe, away against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (91.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (83.3%), Over 23.5 fouls (71.2%), Over 1.5 (71.9%), Over 2.5 cards (86.6%), Over 3.5 cards (71.9%), Under 3.5 (76.4%) and Under 11.5 corners (79.6%). These selections reflect the modelâs view of a high-foul, card-heavy match with a likely 1-1 draw.
Results analysis
Real Betis extended their winning run with a decisive 4-0 triumph over Getafe, confirming the modelâs pre-match favourite of a home win at 40%. The win was a clean sweep for Betis, who had been coming off a defeat, while Getafe, after two straight losses, failed to find the net. The modelâs selection of Over 19.5 fouls at 91.8% hit, as did Over 21.5 fouls at 83.3% and Over 23.5 fouls at 71.2%. Over 1.5 goals at 71.9% also proved correct. However, Over 2.5 cards at 86.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.6%, Under 3.5 at 76.4%, and Over 3.5 cards at 71.9% all missed, showing mixed accuracy in the modelâs broader predictions.
đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Real Betis winâ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.70
Edge
-15.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.44
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Getafe winâ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.36
Edge
+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
✠2. Goal Analysis
Real Betis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.23
1.64
1.43
2.00
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
3.75
1.33
3.67
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
0.95
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
3.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
4.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
0.77
1.23
1.65
1.41
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.33
1.12
1.12
1.23
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
11.00
0.00
-
-
11.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Betis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
@ 2.34+4.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.56-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.4%
Real Betis goals ↓
Getafe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.3%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.6%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.4%
3.8%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Betis goals (down), columns = Getafe goals (across).
đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Sevilla
1.13
Levante
1.11
Mallorca
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Girona
1.08
Oviedo
0.76
Real Betis is 0.24 points better than Getafe in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.34).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Mallorca
1.24
Valencia
1.21
Sevilla
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Girona
1.03
Getafe
0.84
Oviedo
0.68
Real Betis is 0.71 goals better than Getafe in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 0.84).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Girona
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Mallorca
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Oviedo
1.58
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Real Betis is 0.26 goals worse than Getafe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.00).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Girona
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Mallorca
47%
Osasuna
47%
Oviedo
46%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Betis is 10.1 percentage points better than Getafe in terms of average possession (50% vs 40%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Betis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.71
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.48
0.89
0.44
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.38
0.38
0.59
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.75
0.20
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.46
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Betis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Betis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Betis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Betis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Betis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.64
0.71
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
0.78
0.56
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.38
0.85
1.06
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.75
0.00
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.62
0.62
0.88
0.77
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Betis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Betis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Betis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Betis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 1.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
Real Betis's squad is €145m more valuable than Getafe's (€235m vs €90m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
Real Betis's attack is €95m more valuable than Getafe's (€131m vs €36m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
OVI (4)
€6m
Real Betis's midfield is €5m more valuable than Getafe's (€33m vs €28m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
OVI (8)
€10m
Real Betis's defence is €44m more valuable than Getafe's (€70m vs €26m).
Spain: La Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →