Real Madrid’s dominance at home, averaging 2.83 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded against weaker opposition, makes a home win the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 80 % chance. The match is expected to see 3.6 goals on average, so a 3-goal total is the most likely outcome, though the model’s top scoreline prediction is a 2-0 win for Madrid at 11 % probability. Málaga, struggling away with a 0-goal average and conceding 2.0 against stronger teams, faces a tough outing after a recent defeat. The probabilities for the result are 80 % home win, 13 % draw, and 6 % away win. The suggested selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals99.0 % with a 6 % edge, Home +2 handicap98.2 %, Under 7.596.8 % with a 2 % edge, Away under 2.5 goals96.0 % with a 2 % edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals94.7 % with a 4 % edge, and Home over 0.5 goals94.5 % with a 3 % edge.
Results analysis
Real Madrid’s five-game winning streak continued as they thumped Malaga 4-0, confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The favourite, chosen with an 81% probability, proved correct. The match’s 4-0 outcome matched the model’s expected total of 3.7 goals, and the most likely score of 2-0 was within the top three probabilities. Every suggested pick hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, Home +2 handicap at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 96.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.8%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.8%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 95.5%. The model’s selections performed flawlessly.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Madrid win✓ Hit
80.8%
Avg Implied 87.3% · @ 1.10
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Dafabet
1.10
Draw✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied 8.8% · @ 10.87
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
12.30
Pinnacle
12.00
BetVictor
12.00
Marathonbet
11.75
Bet365
11.00
Malaga win✗ Miss
6.1%
Avg Implied 3.9% · @ 24.22
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
31.00
Betfair
31.00
Pinnacle
29.00
Betano
27.00
1xBet
27.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.20
2.67
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.78
2.25
1.25
1.60
2.20
vs Weaker (21)
2.24
0.95
2.82
0.91
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.13
1.80
1.07
1.93
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
1.93
1.10
1.80
1.07
2.07
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.0%
@ 1.06+0.3%
Under 1.5
11.0%
@ 8.33-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Under
BetVictor
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.7%
@ 1.26-2.8%
Under 2.5
28.3%
@ 3.69+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.8%
@ 1.69-5.6%
Under 3.5
49.2%
@ 2.19+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
SBO
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Under
1xBet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.26
Marathonbet
2.23
SBO
2.23
Betano
2.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
@ 2.13+7.3%
No
48.9%
@ 1.66-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.12
No
10Bet
1.73
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%@ 7.46+4.4%
3-0
10.5%@ 6.59+3.4%
2-1
8.1%@ 11.78+4.2%
3-1
8.0%@ 10.40+3.5%
4-0 ✓
7.7%@ 7.64+1.6%
1-0
6.7%@ 11.55+2.6%
1-1
6.1%@ 19.11+3.6%
4-1
5.9%@ 12.07+2.0%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Malaga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.7%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
2
11%
8.1%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
3
10%
8.0%
3.0%
0.8%
0.1%
4
7.7%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Malaga goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Madrid is 1.16 points better than Malaga in terms of average points per game (2.26 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Madrid is 0.95 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Madrid is 0.77 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 5.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 14.8 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.3
4.8
4.9
4.8
23.9
23.9
23.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
11.5
12.6
10.4
6.0
5.1
6.9
23.7
24.4
23.0
vs Weaker (36)
10.2
10.1
10.3
4.4
4.8
4.0
23.9
23.6
24.1
% over line
60%
61%
59%
60%
52%
67%
66%
65%
67%
% under line
40%
39%
41%
40%
48%
33%
34%
35%
33%
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.1
9.7
5.2
5.2
5.1
24.9
25.5
24.4
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
5.0
-
5.0
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (48)
9.0
8.1
9.8
5.3
5.2
5.3
24.9
25.5
24.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
42%
50%
70%
71%
69%
71%
75%
67%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
30%
29%
31%
29%
25%
33%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.3
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
@ 1.74+5.5%
Under 9.5
41.1%
@ 2.00-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.94+21.0%
Under 3.5
30.9%
@ 1.80-21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.1%
@ 1.48+7.6%
Under 21.5
30.9%
@ 2.36-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.36
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Madrid or Draw✓ Hit
93.9%
Avg Implied 95.2% · @ 1.01
Edge
-1.3%
81%
13%
6%
covers Real Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Real Madrid or Malaga✓ Hit
87.0%
Avg Implied 91.2% · @ 1.06
Edge
-4.3%
81%
13%
6%
covers Real Madrid + Malaga
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Draw or Malaga✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied 13.6% · @ 7.12
Edge
+5.6%
81%
13%
6%
covers Draw + Malaga
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Betano
7.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.8%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Under
5.2%
@ 14.10-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Under
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
14.00
1xBet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Betano
11.00
Real Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.3%
@ 1.14-3.0%
Under
20.7%
@ 5.29+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.55
Unibet
5.40
Real Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.43-8.8%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.70+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
1xBet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Real Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
34.1%
@ 2.10-10.5%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.69+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Malaga over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
53.4%
@ 2.08+8.6%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.69-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.19
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Malaga over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 6.66+3.7%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.09-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Malaga over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 20.25-0.5%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Malaga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 80.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
80.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Madrid, so a minus line means Real Madrid give that many goals of a start and Malaga receive them. At -1, Real Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid -2
41.2%
@ 1.75-10.4%
Draw -2
21.2%
@ 4.27+0.0%
Malaga +2
37.6%
@ 3.32+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Away
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Handicap -1 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid -1
62.4%
@ 1.29-7.8%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 5.28+1.3%
Malaga +1
19.2%
@ 7.16+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Handicap +1 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid +1
93.9%
@ 1.01-0.2%
Draw +1
4.4%
@ 22.00+0.0%
Malaga -1
1.8%
@ 59.00+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
Away
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
51.00
Handicap +2 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid +2
98.2%
Draw +2
1.4%
Malaga -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.13
0.47
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.43
1.18
0.36
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.83
0.41
0.80
0.53
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.3%
@ 1.15-1.0%
Under 0.5
19.7%
@ 5.02+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.8%
@ 1.78-3.1%
Under 1.5
50.2%
@ 2.00+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
SBO
2.09
Pinnacle
2.07
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.3%
@ 3.40-7.2%
Under 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.29+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.70
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.44
Unibet
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
73.7%
@ 1.22-2.4%
Under
26.3%
@ 3.88+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Under
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.3%
@ 2.06-6.9%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.70+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.8%
@ 4.31-2.7%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.18+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Betano
4.35
1xBet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Malaga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
27.6%
@ 3.88+3.6%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.23-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.24
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Betano
3.70
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Malaga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 15.12-2.0%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Malaga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 80.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
80.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.53
0.53
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.52
1.64
0.55
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
1.00
0.53
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
1.10
0.69
1.00
0.53
1.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
87.9%
@ 1.09+1.5%
Under 0.5
12.1%
@ 6.98-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Under
1xBet
8.10
Bet365
7.00
Betano
7.00
Superbet
6.80
William Hil
6.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.8%
@ 1.46-3.5%
Under 1.5
39.2%
@ 2.62+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Under
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.74
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.8%
@ 2.42-7.0%
Under 2.5
68.2%
@ 1.53+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.67
William Hil
2.60
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.50
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
78.3%
@ 1.13-3.9%
Under
21.7%
@ 5.25+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.30
Superbet
4.75
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.4%
@ 1.65-6.0%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.13+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
1.95
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 2.96-10.3%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.35+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.82
Under
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.28
Malaga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.3%
@ 3.06+2.9%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.33-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Malaga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 11.04-4.0%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
9.90
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Malaga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 37.00-1.4%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.4%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.8%
1.01
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
93.9%
1.01
William Hil
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.0%
1.06
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
87.0%
1.06
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.06
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.40
-
-
+19.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
82.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
82.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
81.2%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home win
80.8%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Dafabet
1.10
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.3%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.7%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
79.3%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.28
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.13
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.7%
1.26
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Unibet
1.25
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
1.43
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
+6.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Malaga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ramón Enríquez67%
Carlos Puga33%
Juan Cruz33%
David Larrubia33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Chupete0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Rodriguez33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Madrid's squad is €1415m more valuable than Malaga's (€1456m vs €41m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Madrid's attack is €816m more valuable than Malaga's (€842m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Madrid's midfield is €231m more valuable than Malaga's (€238m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Madrid's defence is €368m more valuable than Malaga's (€377m vs €9m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche