Real Madrid’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 triumph over Malaga, gives the model a clear edge at home. The prediction model rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 8%, making a home victory the favourite. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely total of 3 goals occurring 22% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 12.7% probability. Real Madrid’s home form against weaker opposition shows an average of 2.67 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded, while Rayo Vallecano’s away form against stronger teams yields 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded. Suggested picks include an over 2.5 cards (91.1%), over 19.5 fouls (90.9%), over 1.5 (83.1%), over 21.5 fouls (81.9%), over 3.5 cards (79.7%), over 8.5 corners (74.8%) and a home win (74.6%). The model’s selection of a home win aligns with the high probability and the opponent’s venue weakness.
Results analysis
Real Madrid continued their five-game winning streak, extending a run that began with a 4-0 triumph over Malaga. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as the Spanish giants secured a 10-2 victory, a result that matched the pre-match probability of 75%. The Pythia selections performed well: Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.9%, Over 1.5 at 83.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.7%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.8%, and the Home win at 74.6%. All predictions were settled, with each hit as recorded.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Madrid win✓ Hit
74.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano win✗ Miss
8.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.87
2.29
0.86
2.00
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.38
0.62
2.67
0.33
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.12
1.50
1.00
2.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
3.33
0.00
3.00
1.50
3.50
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.42
1.29
1.29
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
3-0
10.3%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
6.3%
0-0
5.0%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1
9.6%
8.2%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
9.1%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
10%
7.4%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.3%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.39
Real Madrid
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.32
Villarreal
1.68
Athletic Club
1.63
Celta Vigo
1.58
Sevilla
1.37
Malaga
1.26
Real Sociedad
1.26
Real Betis
1.18
Las Palmas
1.16
Valencia
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Eibar
1.13
Deportivo La Coruna
1.11
Granada CF
1.03
Sporting Gijon
1.03
Rayo Vallecano
1.00
Getafe
0.95
Levante
0.84
Real Madrid is 1.37 points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (2.37 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.95
Real Madrid
2.89
Atletico Madrid
1.66
Athletic Club
1.53
Rayo Vallecano
1.37
Celta Vigo
1.34
Sevilla
1.34
Eibar
1.29
Granada CF
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Las Palmas
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.18
Deportivo La Coruna
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Espanyol
1.05
Sporting Gijon
1.05
Malaga
1.00
Getafe
0.97
Levante
0.97
Real Betis
0.89
Real Madrid is 1.53 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (2.89 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.47
Barcelona
0.76
Real Madrid
0.89
Malaga
0.92
Villarreal
0.92
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.26
Valencia
1.26
Sevilla
1.32
Real Betis
1.37
Las Palmas
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.55
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Eibar
1.61
Sporting Gijon
1.63
Getafe
1.76
Granada CF
1.82
Levante
1.84
Rayo Vallecano
1.92
Espanyol
1.95
Real Madrid is 1.03 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 6.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 6.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 14.0 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
11.0
11.7
10.4
5.2
4.9
5.5
24.6
22.0
26.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
10.0
14.0
6.0
8.0
6.0
10.0
27.0
23.0
31.0
vs Weaker (13)
11.2
11.3
11.0
4.8
4.7
4.9
24.2
21.8
26.3
% over line
67%
57%
75%
80%
71%
88%
67%
43%
88%
% under line
33%
43%
25%
20%
29%
12%
33%
57%
12%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
9.7
8.9
10.6
5.1
4.8
5.6
27.9
28.1
27.6
vs Stronger (3)
11.3
8.0
13.0
4.3
5.0
4.0
27.7
30.0
26.5
vs Similar (12)
9.2
9.0
9.6
5.3
4.7
6.2
27.9
27.9
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
38%
43%
87%
88%
86%
93%
100%
86%
% under line
60%
62%
57%
13%
12%
14%
7%
0%
14%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valencia
11.4
Celta Vigo
11.3
Malaga
11.3
Villarreal
11.2
Athletic Club
11.1
Real Madrid
11.0
Sevilla
10.8
Barcelona
10.7
Espanyol
10.3
Eibar
10.2
Deportivo La Coruna
10.0
Getafe
9.9
Real Betis
9.9
Rayo Vallecano
9.7
Granada CF
9.5
Sporting Gijon
9.3
Real Sociedad
9.3
Levante
8.9
Atletico Madrid
8.3
Las Palmas
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Real Betis
6.9
Espanyol
6.8
Real Sociedad
6.7
Granada CF
6.6
Levante
6.4
Valencia
6.3
Sevilla
6.2
Celta Vigo
6.2
Eibar
6.1
Villarreal
5.9
Athletic Club
5.7
Malaga
5.6
Sporting Gijon
5.5
Getafe
5.4
Real Madrid
5.2
Rayo Vallecano
5.1
Atletico Madrid
5.1
Las Palmas
5.0
Deportivo La Coruna
4.9
Barcelona
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Espanyol
34.2
Valencia
34.1
Granada CF
31.7
Levante
30.2
Celta Vigo
29.1
Las Palmas
29.1
Malaga
28.5
Sevilla
28.5
Villarreal
28.3
Real Sociedad
28.1
Rayo Vallecano
27.9
Athletic Club
27.7
Getafe
27.3
Real Betis
27.3
Eibar
27.2
Atletico Madrid
25.5
Barcelona
25.2
Sporting Gijon
25.1
Real Madrid
24.6
Deportivo La Coruna
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.6%
Under 9.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.7%
Under 3.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.9%
Under 21.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.33
1.57
0.43
1.25
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.23
1.83
0.17
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.75
0.62
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.38
0.83
0.17
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.07
0.38
0.88
0.57
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.86
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Rayo Vallecano · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
RV (23)
€76m
MAL (27)
€41m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Real Madrid's squad is €1381m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€1456m vs €76m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Real Madrid's attack is €812m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€842m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Real Madrid's midfield is €228m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€238m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
Real Madrid's defence is €341m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€377m vs €36m).
Spain: La Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →