Real Madrid’s 2-0 win over Espanyol shows a 4-game winning streak that fuels the model’s 72 % confidence in a home victory, the clear favourite. Their home form against weaker opposition boasts 2.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded, while Real Sociedad’s away record against stronger teams yields only 1.67 scored and 3.0 conceded. The expected total of 3.4 goals translates to an average of 3, with a 22 % chance of exactly 3 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.4 % probability. The model picks a home win, and the probabilities are 72 % for a Real Madrid win, 17 % for a draw, and 10 % for a Sociedad win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.8 %), Under 7.5 (98.3 %), Home +2 handicap (96.6 %), Under 6.5 (95.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.7 %), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.2 %). Each selection carries its own probability and edge.
Results analysis
Real Madrid extended their five-game winning streak with a 4-1 victory over Real Sociedad, confirming the model’s home win pick and the 3-goal total prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 70% probability and proved correct. Every model selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6%, Under 7.5 at 98.4%, Home +2 handicap at 96.3%, Under 6.5 at 95.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.4%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.3%. The match delivered on the model’s expectations, with Real Madrid’s dominant form and Real Sociedad’s struggles at home making the outcome unsurprising.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Madrid win✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.22
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Draw✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.80
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
7.50
Dafabet
7.40
Superbet
7.20
Pinnacle
7.03
Betfair
7.00
Real Sociedad win✗ Miss
11.7%
Avg Implied 8.0% · @ 11.87
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
13.00
BetVictor
13.00
Betano
12.50
Unibet
12.50
10Bet
12.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.20
2.73
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.78
2.25
1.25
1.60
2.20
vs Weaker (21)
2.29
0.95
2.91
0.91
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.57
2.07
1.57
1.38
1.56
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.20
1.50
1.00
1.67
3.00
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.45
2.00
1.80
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
1.43
2.29
1.57
1.86
1.29
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.09+0.6%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 6.88-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Under
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.35-2.1%
Under 2.5
32.5%
@ 3.10+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.9%
@ 1.91-4.0%
Under 3.5
54.1%
@ 1.90+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
SBO
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
SBO
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.79+5.6%
No
42.4%
@ 1.95-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
No
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.8%@ 7.55+3.6%
2-1
9.4%@ 9.06+4.3%
1-1
8.2%@ 12.36+4.5%
3-0
8.2%@ 7.87+2.2%
3-1
7.9%@ 9.45+2.9%
1-0
7.0%@ 10.01+2.3%
4-0
5.1%@ 10.68+0.8%
4-1 ✓
5.0%@ 12.67+1.3%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Real Sociedad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.0%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.8%
9.4%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
8.2%
7.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
5.1%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Madrid is 1.05 points better than Real Sociedad in terms of average points per game (2.26 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Madrid is 0.47 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Madrid is 0.68 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Madrid is 8.1 percentage points better than Real Sociedad in terms of average possession (59% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 5.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 15.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
For 4.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.3 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.3
4.8
4.7
4.8
24.1
24.4
23.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
11.5
12.6
10.4
6.0
5.1
6.9
23.7
24.4
23.0
vs Weaker (36)
10.1
9.9
10.3
4.3
4.6
4.0
24.2
24.4
24.1
% over line
58%
57%
59%
58%
48%
67%
68%
70%
67%
% under line
42%
43%
41%
42%
52%
33%
32%
30%
33%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.0
9.6
4.8
5.2
4.4
26.7
27.3
26.0
vs Stronger (8)
12.5
14.0
11.6
3.6
5.7
2.4
21.0
23.0
19.8
vs Similar (19)
9.8
10.3
9.3
5.5
5.3
5.7
26.2
26.2
26.1
vs Weaker (23)
9.8
10.8
8.9
4.6
4.9
4.4
29.3
29.8
28.8
% over line
54%
65%
44%
66%
78%
56%
75%
83%
68%
% under line
46%
35%
56%
34%
22%
44%
25%
17%
32%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.7
Racing Santander
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Real Madrid
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Valencia
9.8
Espanyol
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
8.9
Getafe
8.9
Elche
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.4
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.3
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Alaves
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Athletic Club
4.7
Elche
4.7
Real Betis
4.7
Levante
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.5
Osasuna
25.1
Celta Vigo
24.9
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.6
Villarreal
24.6
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
24.1
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.5
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.60-3.2%
Under 9.5
45.1%
@ 2.22+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.63
Betfair
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.8%
@ 1.55+11.7%
Under 3.5
28.2%
@ 2.33-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.46
Under
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.9%
@ 1.38+12.2%
Under 21.5
22.1%
@ 2.65-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.65
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Madrid or Draw✓ Hit
88.5%
Avg Implied 91.4% · @ 1.04
Edge
-2.8%
70%
18%
12%
covers Real Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Real Madrid or Real Sociedad✓ Hit
80.6%
Avg Implied 86.0% · @ 1.11
Edge
-5.4%
70%
18%
12%
covers Real Madrid + Real Sociedad
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Draw or Real Sociedad✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.22
Edge
+8.2%
70%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Real Sociedad
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
SBO
4.44
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.1%
@ 1.03-1.3%
Under
9.9%
@ 10.92+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Under
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Unibet
11.50
1xBet
11.20
Superbet
11.00
Real Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.2%
@ 1.22-9.3%
Under
32.8%
@ 3.98+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.51
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Real Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.7%
@ 1.72-13.7%
Under
59.3%
@ 2.06+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Real Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
20.3%
@ 2.82-12.8%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.40+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
Betano
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.6%
@ 1.70+2.9%
Under
42.4%
@ 2.06-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
BetVictor
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.2%
@ 4.59+0.9%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.18-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 13.54-1.4%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
14.50
1xBet
14.50
Superbet
14.00
Under
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Real Sociedad over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 37.00-1.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
45.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Madrid, so a minus line means Real Madrid give that many goals of a start and Real Sociedad receive them. At -1, Real Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid -2
26.1%
@ 2.34-12.6%
Draw -2
20.8%
@ 4.08-1.4%
Real Sociedad +2
53.1%
@ 2.31+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Handicap -1 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid -1
46.9%
@ 1.57-11.0%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 4.38+1.5%
Real Sociedad +1
30.9%
@ 4.25+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Away
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.10
Handicap +1 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid +1
88.5%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Draw +1
7.7%
@ 10.53-0.9%
Real Sociedad -1
3.7%
@ 20.02-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
Unibet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid +2
96.3%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Draw +2
2.9%
@ 24.50-1.1%
Real Sociedad -2
0.9%
@ 58.50-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Away
Betfair
76.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
1.13
0.40
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.38
1.18
0.27
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.19-2.5%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 4.48+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Unibet
4.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.4%
@ 1.90-9.2%
Under 1.5
59.6%
@ 1.87+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Under
SBO
1.99
Pinnacle
1.92
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 3.85-8.8%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.24+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Under
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
66.6%
@ 1.32-3.9%
Under
33.4%
@ 3.16+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.0%
@ 2.46-14.8%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.50+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.52
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Unibet
2.43
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 5.66-9.9%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.10+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.70
Unibet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.1%
@ 2.96+1.7%
Under
66.9%
@ 1.36-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
Betano
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 11.55-2.5%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 35.00-2.3%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.60
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.43
0.57
1.73
0.64
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.29
0.93
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.91
1.40
1.20
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.79
1.29
0.71
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.2%
@ 1.11-0.3%
Under 0.5
15.8%
@ 6.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Under
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.60-8.6%
Under 1.5
49.9%
@ 2.27+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.5%
@ 2.80-8.8%
Under 2.5
75.5%
@ 1.40+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.90
888Sport
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
73.4%
@ 1.20-4.5%
Under
26.6%
@ 4.22+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.15
Superbet
4.10
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
35.1%
@ 1.94-12.8%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.78+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
10Bet
1.73
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.1%
@ 3.83-12.1%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.22+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.2%
@ 2.54+1.5%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.47-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.40
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 9.19-1.8%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.03+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 24.50-2.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.03
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.8%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.5%
1.04
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.5%
1.06
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
-
+12.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
1.24
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.17
-
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.24
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.11
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.6%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.7%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
+12.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
78.8%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.38
+10.2%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.9%
1.38
1xBet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+12.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.0%
1.50
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.6%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.40
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
+8.8%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.20
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.46
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home win
70.3%
1.22
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
William Hil
1.22
-7.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Real Sociedad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić25%
Barrenetxea25%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Y. Herrera50%
Zubeldia50%
Jon Aramburu50%
Sergio Gómez25%
Luka Sučić25%
Beñat Turrientes25%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Guedes33%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Madrid's squad is €1209m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€1456m vs €247m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Madrid's attack is €732m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€842m vs €110m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Madrid's midfield is €180m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€238m vs €58m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Madrid's defence is €298m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€377m vs €79m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga