PythiaFootballBETA
The match between Real Sociedad II and Cultural Leonesa is expected to be a closely contested draw, with both teams coming off recent draws and facing familiar opponents. This storyline suggests that neither side will dominate the other, which aligns with the model's prediction of a home win. Real Sociedad II are the favourites to win, with a 46% chance of victory, compared to 26% for a draw and 27% for Cultural Leonesa.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. Real Sociedad II have scored an average of 1.15 goals at home, while conceding 1.08. Cultural Leonesa have scored 1.0 goal away from home, but conceded 1.5.
The model's selection is the home win, with probabilities of 46% for Real Sociedad II to win, 26% for a draw, and 27% for Cultural Leonesa to win. The model also suggests Over 21.5 fouls (88.2%), Over 3.5 cards (87.4%), and Over 1.5 goals (80.0%) as its selections. Real Sociedad II have a 46% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 28% chance of losing.
The draw between Real Sociedad II and Cultural Leonesa extends Real Sociedad II's run of consecutive draws. The final score was 1-1, resulting in a draw. This outcome was a surprise, as the home team, Real Sociedad II, were the pre-match favourite, with a 46% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model had predicted Real Sociedad II to win, but they failed to do so. The model's selection had a 46% probability of winning.
The suggested picks also had varied success. Over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 88.2%, while Over 3.5 cards missed, with a probability of 87.4%. Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 80%.
Real Sociedad II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.92 | 1.42 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.44 | 1.39 | 1.57 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Cultural Leonesa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.77 | 0.88 | 1.69 | 0.86 | 1.86 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.88 | 1.80 | 0.92 | 1.69 | 0.83 | 1.92 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-21pp vs league) | |||||
| Cultural Leonesa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 12% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Real Sociedad IICultural LeonesaReal Sociedad II| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 8.6 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 27.5 | 28.2 | 26.9 |
| vs Similar (29) | 9.3 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 29.2 | 30.4 | 28.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 40% | 36% | 44% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 94% | 96% | 92% |
| % under line | 60% | 64% | 56% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 6% | 4% | 8% |
Cultural Leonesa| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 26.3 | 25.8 | 26.7 |
| vs Stronger (36) | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 24.8 | 25.1 | 24.6 |
| vs Similar (14) | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 29.9 | 27.7 | 32.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 38% | 32% | 44% | 72% | 68% | 76% | 80% | 84% | 76% |
| % under line | 62% | 68% | 56% | 28% | 32% | 24% | 20% | 16% | 24% |
Real Sociedad II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Cultural Leonesa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.87 | 0.31 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.48 | 0.96 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.58 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 4.5 cards | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/26 | A | 1-1 |
Real Sociedad II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 29/03/26 | A | 5-1 |
Cultural Leonesa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/03/26 | H | 0-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Racing Santander | 42 | 82 | 60% | 2.0 | 90 | 61 | +29 | 3.6 | 86% | 71% | 55% | 10.4 | 62% | 6.5 | 88% | 27.4 | 86% | 82 | 42 | 17 | 24 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 2 |  Malaga | 46 | 81 | 50% | 1.8 | 79 | 54 | +25 | 2.9 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 8.9 | 46% | 5.4 | 72% | 24.9 | 70% | 35 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 3 |  Almeria | 46 | 79 | 50% | 1.7 | 86 | 68 | +18 | 3.3 | 83% | 70% | 41% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 80% | 26.8 | 89% | 69 | 37 | 22 | 9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 4 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 77 | 52% | 1.8 | 65 | 44 | +21 | 2.6 | 83% | 50% | 21% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.3 | 78% | 24.2 | 74% | 58 | 43 | 4 | 11 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 5 |  Las Palmas | 44 | 74 | 45% | 1.7 | 58 | 42 | +16 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 18% | 8.1 | 34% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.5 | 89% | 53 | 19 | 9 | 25 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 |  Castellón | 44 | 73 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 55 | +18 | 2.9 | 77% | 50% | 41% | 9.9 | 50% | 6.1 | 88% | 28.4 | 95% | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 7 |  Burgos | 42 | 72 | 48% | 1.7 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 1.9 | 55% | 31% | 14% | 8.4 | 33% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.5 | 86% | 21 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 46% |
| 8 |  Eibar | 42 | 67 | 45% | 1.6 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 2.2 | 62% | 48% | 17% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.5 | 83% | 25.5 | 79% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 9 |  Sporting Gijon | 42 | 61 | 43% | 1.5 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 2.7 | 67% | 55% | 31% | 9.9 | 55% | 5.3 | 76% | 22.2 | 55% | 33 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 10 |  Cordoba | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 2.8 | 81% | 60% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 5.8 | 88% | 30.0 | 88% | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 2.7 | 74% | 55% | 26% | 8.9 | 43% | 5.3 | 83% | 27.6 | 93% | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 12 |  Albacete | 42 | 59 | 38% | 1.4 | 56 | 55 | +1 | 2.6 | 69% | 50% | 29% | 10.6 | 62% | 4.6 | 71% | 22.1 | 48% | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 13 |  FC Andorra | 42 | 58 | 38% | 1.4 | 62 | 54 | +8 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 29% | 9.1 | 45% | 5.7 | 90% | 28.1 | 81% | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 14 |  Granada CF | 42 | 48 | 29% | 1.1 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 2.5 | 64% | 43% | 29% | 9.2 | 40% | 5.7 | 80% | 27.6 | 88% | 31 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 15 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 47 | 29% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.7 | 69% | 45% | 26% | 9.2 | 43% | 6.1 | 81% | 29.1 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 16 |  Leganes | 42 | 46 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 2.2 | 69% | 45% | 14% | 9.5 | 48% | 5.4 | 81% | 27.0 | 88% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 17 |  Valladolid | 42 | 46 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 24% | 8.8 | 40% | 5.9 | 79% | 28.9 | 86% | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 18 |  Cadiz | 42 | 43 | 26% | 1.0 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 21% | 9.6 | 48% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.0 | 86% | 21 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Mirandes | 42 | 40 | 24% | 1.0 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 2.8 | 76% | 57% | 31% | 9.3 | 45% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.7 | 81% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 20 |  Huesca | 42 | 38 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 2.5 | 69% | 43% | 19% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.1 | 83% | 25.5 | 83% | 16 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 21 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 37 | 21% | 0.9 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.5 | 69% | 50% | 24% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.0 | 64% | 25.0 | 79% | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 22 |  Zaragoza | 42 | 36 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.2 | 60% | 6.5 | 90% | 28.3 | 86% | 18 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |