Real Sociedad are tipped to win, a 50% chance of victory versus 25% each for a draw or an Espanyol win. The match is expected to see three goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12% probability. Real Sociedad, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while Espanyol, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.33 scored and 4.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7% (edge 3%), Under 7.5 at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0% (edge 3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4% (edge 4%), Away under 3.5 goals at 95.5% (edge 1%), Under 6.5 at 94.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.5% (edge 4%) and Over 19.5 fouls at 91.3%. Real Sociedad’s recent form shows a 5-match string of LLDLD after two straight defeats, while Espanyol’s last five are LWDWW, coming off a defeat to Real Madrid.
Results analysis
The win extends Real Sociedad’s recent run, and the model’s forecast proved spot on. With a 50% probability of a home victory, the model picked a Home win and the match finished 2-1 in favour of the hosts. The pre-match favourite was correct, and the final score matched the expected 2-1 outcome. The suggested selections also delivered: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.5%, Under 6.5 at 94.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.8%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 91.3%. All picks settled in the model’s favour.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Real Sociedad win✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied 52.2% · @ 1.83
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.87
SBO
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Dafabet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.69
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.90
Pinnacle
3.84
1xBet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
Espanyol win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.34
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.67
Marathonbet
4.55
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.15
1.54
1.35
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
3.25
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.40
2.25
1.75
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
1.43
2.29
1.57
1.86
1.29
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
1.00
1.27
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.62
0.40
1.80
1.33
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.09
1.30
1.00
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
@ 1.26+6.3%
Under 1.5
18.9%
@ 3.72-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.85+5.8%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.98-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Under
SBO
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
@ 3.05+4.2%
Under 3.5
64.9%
@ 1.36-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Betano
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.3%
@ 1.73+5.4%
No
40.7%
@ 2.03-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Unibet
1.74
No
William Hil
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.68+5.0%
2-1 ✓
9.7%@ 7.86+3.8%
2-0
8.1%@ 8.55+2.7%
1-0
7.9%@ 7.24+1.6%
1-2
6.5%@ 12.77+2.9%
0-0
6.1%@ 11.23+2.0%
2-2
5.8%@ 13.18+2.3%
3-1
5.8%@ 13.16+2.3%
Real Sociedad goals ↓
Espanyol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.9%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
7.9%
12%
6.5%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.7%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.8%
5.8%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.6%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Sociedad goals (down), columns = Espanyol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Real Sociedad and Espanyol are level in average points per game (both 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Real Sociedad is 0.42 goals better than Espanyol in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Real Sociedad is 0.16 goals worse than Espanyol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Real Sociedad is 8.9 percentage points better than Espanyol in terms of average possession (51% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Sociedad
For 4.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Espanyol
For 3.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 12.2 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.7
4.8
5.2
4.5
26.4
27.3
25.7
vs Stronger (9)
12.3
14.0
11.5
3.9
5.7
3.0
20.7
23.0
19.5
vs Similar (18)
9.6
9.8
9.3
5.6
5.4
5.7
26.0
25.9
26.1
vs Weaker (23)
9.8
10.8
8.9
4.6
4.9
4.4
29.3
29.8
28.8
% over line
54%
64%
46%
66%
77%
57%
73%
82%
65%
% under line
46%
36%
54%
34%
23%
43%
27%
18%
35%
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.7
4.7
5.0
4.4
25.9
26.4
25.5
vs Stronger (13)
9.0
7.9
10.3
4.5
4.6
4.3
26.4
24.9
28.2
vs Similar (36)
9.8
10.1
9.5
4.9
5.2
4.6
25.8
26.9
24.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
49%
40%
58%
62%
68%
56%
76%
80%
71%
% under line
51%
60%
42%
38%
32%
44%
24%
20%
29%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Valencia
9.8
Espanyol
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
8.9
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.3
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Real Betis
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.3
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.3
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.6
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.5
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.83+3.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.90-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.3%
@ 1.30+3.0%
Under 3.5
25.7%
@ 3.22-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.45
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.5%
Under 21.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Sociedad or Draw✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied 77.6% · @ 1.22
Edge
-2.1%
50%
25%
24%
covers Real Sociedad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Real Sociedad or Espanyol✓ Hit
76.2%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.5%
50%
25%
24%
covers Real Sociedad + Espanyol
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Espanyol✗ Miss
48.3%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 1.98
Edge
+0.6%
50%
25%
24%
covers Draw + Espanyol
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.1%
@ 1.16+5.4%
Under
13.9%
@ 4.83-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.7%
@ 1.82+7.2%
Under
41.3%
@ 1.93-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.6%
@ 3.58+5.5%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.27-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
1xBet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Real Sociedad over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 7.83+1.9%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.06-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Superbet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Espanyol over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.3%
@ 1.46+9.5%
Under
26.7%
@ 2.57-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Espanyol over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 3.25+9.2%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.32-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.47
Marathonbet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Espanyol over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 8.73+4.0%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.05-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.40
1xBet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Espanyol over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 20.67-0.2%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.01+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Sociedad, so a minus line means Real Sociedad give that many goals of a start and Espanyol receive them. At -1, Real Sociedad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Sociedad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Espanyol
Real Sociedad -2
14.7%
@ 6.37+0.5%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 5.11-1.7%
Espanyol +2
69.4%
@ 1.33+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Superbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Away
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Draw
Real Sociedad -1
30.6%
@ 3.12+1.6%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 3.59-4.1%
Espanyol +1
48.3%
@ 1.97+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
1.91
Handicap +1 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad +1
75.5%
@ 1.22+0.3%
Draw +1
13.8%
@ 5.92-1.7%
Espanyol -1
10.8%
@ 9.67+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
Superbet
9.20
Handicap +2 (Real Sociedad)Actual: Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad +2
89.2%
@ 1.04+1.1%
Draw +2
7.1%
@ 11.67-0.8%
Espanyol -2
3.6%
@ 23.00-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.77
0.69
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.60
0.33
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.37+3.7%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 3.00-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.15
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.5%
@ 2.68+0.5%
Under 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.44-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Betano
2.77
1xBet
2.76
Unibet
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 6.67+0.2%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.09-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.2%
@ 1.75-1.8%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.98+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 4.72-1.3%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.15+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 11.62-4.7%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Espanyol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.5%
@ 2.53+4.6%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.47-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.45
Espanyol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 9.17+0.9%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.03-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Espanyol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 25.00-2.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.85
0.59
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
1.75
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.79
1.29
0.71
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.60
0.67
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.20
1.20
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.68
0.80
0.40
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.9%
@ 1.21+4.8%
Under 0.5
18.1%
@ 4.09-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Unibet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.6%
@ 2.01+1.9%
Under 1.5
51.4%
@ 1.76-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 4.20+1.0%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.21-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.1%
@ 1.51-0.4%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.41+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 3.42-5.2%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.27+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 8.67-4.5%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Espanyol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.2%
@ 2.08+6.5%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.68-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.09
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
Espanyol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 6.34-0.8%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.09+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Espanyol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 16.88-2.6%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.2%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
1.09
Superbet
1.09
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.1%
1.26
BetVictor
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.4%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-7.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.5%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.5%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.19
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
1.30
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.37
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Sociedad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić25%
Barrenetxea25%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Y. Herrera50%
Zubeldia50%
Jon Aramburu50%
Sergio Gómez25%
Luka Sučić25%
Beñat Turrientes25%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Guedes33%
Orri Óskarsson25%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Y. Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
T. Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Zubeldia0%
Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martín0%
Alex Marchal0%
Espanyol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roberto Fernández67%
Tyrhys Dolan33%
Álex Calatrava33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Javier Hernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Urko González67%
Álex Calatrava67%
Javier Hernández33%
Roger Hinojo33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier Hernández100%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edu Expósito33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Javier Hernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Real Sociedad's squad is €128m more valuable than Espanyol's (€247m vs €119m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Real Sociedad's attack is €71m more valuable than Espanyol's (€110m vs €39m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Real Sociedad's midfield is €27m more valuable than Espanyol's (€58m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Real Sociedad's defence is €31m more valuable than Espanyol's (€79m vs €48m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga