Reims are the clear favourite for a home victory, with the model assigning a 71% chance to a win, 18% to a draw and 10% to an away win. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result at 11.4% probability, and an average of 3.2 goals, with a 22% chance that the total will be exactly three. Reims’ home form shows they average 2.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against weaker opposition, while Dijon, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Recent form supports the forecast: Reims are on a two-game winning streak after a 4-1 win over RED Star FC 93, whereas Dijon has just returned from a draw, having lost 1-1 to Clermont Foot. The model’s selections include an away under 3.5 goals at 99%, under 7.5 at 98.2%, home +2 handicap at 96.7%, under 6.5 at 95.4%, away under 2.5 goals at 94.8%, over 19.5 fouls at 93.2%, home over 0.5 goals at 90.9% and home or draw at 89.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Reims win
70.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dijon win
10.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Reims
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.83
2.07
1.07
1.38
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.92
0.84
2.15
1.15
1.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dijon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.23
0.92
1.00
1.28
1.39
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.31
0.67
1.17
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.12
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Reims) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.6%
Under 3.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.0%
3-0
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
Reims goals ↓
Dijon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
2.7%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.8%
9.0%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.9%
7.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.2%
4.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Reims goals (down), columns = Dijon goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Reims is 0.63 points better than Dijon in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Reims is 0.58 goals better than Dijon in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Reims is 0.56 goals better than Dijon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.58).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Reims or Draw
89.1%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Reims + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Reims or Dijon
81.1%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Reims + Dijon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dijon
29.8%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Dijon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Reims over/under 0.5
Over
90.5%
Under
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 1.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 2.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 3.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 0.5
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 1.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 2.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Reims, so a minus line means Reims give that many goals of a start and Dijon receive them. At -1, Reims must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Reims win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Reims)
Reims -2
27.1%
Draw -2
20.9%
Dijon +2
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Reims)
Reims -1
48.0%
Draw -1
22.1%
Dijon +1
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Reims)
Reims +1
89.1%
Draw +1
7.4%
Dijon -1
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Reims)
Reims +2
96.5%
Draw +2
2.7%
Dijon -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Reims
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.07
0.36
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.40
1.15
0.38
0.75
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dijon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.42
0.33
0.22
0.61
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
0.54
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Reims) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Reims over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Reims
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.00
0.71
0.81
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.44
1.00
0.77
0.92
0.08
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dijon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.50
0.67
1.06
0.78
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.77
0.50
0.83
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.69
0.50
0.50
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Reims) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Reims over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Reims's squad is €67m more valuable than Dijon's (€72m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Reims's attack is €37m more valuable than Dijon's (€38m vs €1m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Reims's midfield is €11m more valuable than Dijon's (€13m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Reims's defence is €20m more valuable than Dijon's (€21m vs €2m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →