Reims are the clear favourite, the model giving them a 66% chance of victory and a 23% chance of a draw, with only 11% for Sochaux. The prediction that the match will end in a home win is driven by Reims’ strong home form - scoring an average of 2.15 goals and conceding just 1.15 against weaker opposition - while Sochaux, playing away against a stronger side, averages only one goal scored and two conceded. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Reims, a 13.6% chance. Suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.5%, under 7.5 at 99.4%, under 6.5 at 98.2%, home +2 handicap at 96.8%, away under 2.5 goals at 96.8%, under 5.5 at 94.9%, over 19.5 fouls at 88.7%, and home or draw at 88.7%. The recent form shows Reims on a two-game winning run after a 4-1 win over RED Star FC 93, while Sochaux comes off a 0-0 draw with Clermont Foot.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Reims win
65.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sochaux win
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Reims
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.83
2.07
1.07
1.38
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.92
0.84
2.15
1.15
1.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sochaux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sochaux
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
0.92
1.33
1.61
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.00
0.25
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.07
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
4.33
1.00
-
-
4.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Reims) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.5%
1-0
13.2%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
8.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.2%
Reims goals ↓
Sochaux goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
4.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
8.5%
5.9%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Reims goals (down), columns = Sochaux goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Reims is 0.55 points better than Sochaux in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Reims is 0.51 goals better than Sochaux in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Reims is 0.44 goals better than Sochaux in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.47).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Reims or Draw
88.1%
Avg Implied -
65%
23%
12%
covers Reims + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Reims or Sochaux
77.0%
Avg Implied -
65%
23%
12%
covers Reims + Sochaux
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sochaux
34.9%
Avg Implied -
65%
23%
12%
covers Draw + Sochaux
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Reims over/under 0.5
Over
85.1%
Under
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 1.5
Over
56.7%
Under
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 2.5
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 3.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 0.5
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 1.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Reims, so a minus line means Reims give that many goals of a start and Sochaux receive them. At -1, Reims must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Reims win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Reims)
Reims -2
19.7%
Draw -2
20.5%
Sochaux +2
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Reims)
Reims -1
40.2%
Draw -1
24.9%
Sochaux +1
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Reims)
Reims +1
88.1%
Draw +1
8.5%
Sochaux -1
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Reims)
Reims +2
96.6%
Draw +2
2.7%
Sochaux -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Reims
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.07
0.36
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.40
1.15
0.38
0.75
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sochaux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sochaux
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.42
0.83
0.78
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.25
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.55
0.62
0.62
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Reims) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Reims over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Reims
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.00
0.71
0.81
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.44
1.00
0.77
0.92
0.08
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sochaux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sochaux
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.61
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.45
0.62
0.38
0.43
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.67
-
-
3.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Reims) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Reims over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reims over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sochaux over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Reims
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Quentin Paris33%
Youssef El Kachati25%
Sambou Soumano25%
Samuel Kotto25%
Yaya Fofana25%
Ange Tia25%
Mohamed Daramy0%
Theo Leoni0%
Tom HĂĽlsmann0%
Daouda Guindo0%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon0%
Jean Mambuku0%
Amine Kashi0%
John Otomewo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daouda Guindo50%
Quentin Paris33%
Youssef El Kachati25%
Samuel Kotto25%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon25%
Mohamed Daramy0%
Sambou Soumano0%
Theo Leoni0%
Tom HĂĽlsmann0%
Yaya Fofana0%
Ange Tia0%
Jean Mambuku0%
Amine Kashi0%
John Otomewo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daouda Guindo75%
Amine Kashi33%
Mohamed Daramy0%
Youssef El Kachati0%
Sambou Soumano0%
Theo Leoni0%
Tom HĂĽlsmann0%
Samuel Kotto0%
Yaya Fofana0%
Ange Tia0%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon0%
Quentin Paris0%
Jean Mambuku0%
John Otomewo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yaya Fofana25%
Mohamed Daramy0%
Youssef El Kachati0%
Sambou Soumano0%
Theo Leoni0%
Tom HĂĽlsmann0%
Daouda Guindo0%
Samuel Kotto0%
Ange Tia0%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon0%
Quentin Paris0%
Jean Mambuku0%
Amine Kashi0%
John Otomewo0%
Sochaux
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Boubacar Fofana25%
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Julien Masson0%
Jonathan Mexique0%
Mathieu Peybernes0%
Landry Nomel0%
Kapit Djoco0%
Samy Baghdadi0%
Dylan Tavares0%
Mathis Clairicia0%
Dalangunypole Gomis0%
Noa Kotto Kotto Mouyema0%
Élie N'Gatta0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Élie N'Gatta25%
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Julien Masson0%
Boubacar Fofana0%
Jonathan Mexique0%
Mathieu Peybernes0%
Landry Nomel0%
Kapit Djoco0%
Samy Baghdadi0%
Dylan Tavares0%
Mathis Clairicia0%
Dalangunypole Gomis0%
Noa Kotto Kotto Mouyema0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Julien Masson0%
Boubacar Fofana0%
Jonathan Mexique0%
Mathieu Peybernes0%
Landry Nomel0%
Kapit Djoco0%
Samy Baghdadi0%
Dylan Tavares0%
Mathis Clairicia0%
Dalangunypole Gomis0%
Noa Kotto Kotto Mouyema0%
Élie N'Gatta0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Julien Masson0%
Boubacar Fofana0%
Jonathan Mexique0%
Mathieu Peybernes0%
Landry Nomel0%
Kapit Djoco0%
Samy Baghdadi0%
Dylan Tavares0%
Mathis Clairicia0%
Dalangunypole Gomis0%
Noa Kotto Kotto Mouyema0%
Élie N'Gatta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Reims's squad is €65m more valuable than Sochaux's (€72m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Reims's attack is €36m more valuable than Sochaux's (€38m vs €3m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Reims's midfield is €12m more valuable than Sochaux's (€13m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Reims's defence is €18m more valuable than Sochaux's (€21m vs €3m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Saint Etienne
Montpellier
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes