Rennes, buoyed by a win over Le Mans, are set to host Marseille, who return after a 0-2 loss to Monaco. The model favours a home win at 45%, with a draw at 25% and an away win at 30%. The expected total is 3.2 goals, most likely a 3-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% chance. Rennes average 2.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Marseille average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded away, signalling a defensive clash. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6% (6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% (8% edge), Under 6.5 at 96.8% (4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5% (5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2% (6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.4% (6% edge) and Under 5.5 at 91.8% (4% edge). The model’s strongest edge lies in the under-goals selections, reflecting the defensive form of both sides.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rennes win
43.2%
Avg Implied 40.5% · @ 2.34
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.40
Dafabet
2.38
10Bet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.81
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.03
Pinnacle
4.01
Marathonbet
3.96
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.80
Marseille win
31.5%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.73
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.81
Dafabet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rennes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.07
1.07
1.80
1.87
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
2.50
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (19)
2.00
1.58
2.14
1.14
1.92
1.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.75
1.83
0.83
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.50
1.93
1.27
1.87
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.50
2.10
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
1.23
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.9%
@ 1.15+3.1%
Under 1.5
16.1%
@ 4.87-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.11
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.85
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.1%
@ 1.53+0.9%
Under 2.5
38.0%
@ 2.42-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.8%
@ 2.41+0.1%
Under 3.5
60.2%
@ 1.58-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
@ 1.47+1.0%
No
35.6%
@ 2.55-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
1xBet
1.45
No
Betfair
2.60
William Hil
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 7.16+5.1%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.72+3.9%
1-2
7.6%@ 9.34+2.8%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.28+2.2%
2-0
6.1%@ 13.16+2.7%
1-0
6.0%@ 10.81+1.9%
3-1
5.2%@ 15.03+2.2%
0-0
5.1%@ 15.47+2.2%
Rennes goals ↓
Marseille goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.9%
4.4%
2.1%
0.8%
1
6.0%
11%
7.6%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.1%
9.0%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.6%
5.2%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rennes goals (down), columns = Marseille goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Rennes and Marseille are level in average points per game (both 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Rennes is 0.12 goals worse than Marseille in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Rennes is 0.15 goals worse than Marseille in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Rennes is 3.4 percentage points worse than Marseille in terms of average possession (54% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rennes
For 7.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Marseille
For 5.6 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rennes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
23.9
24.2
23.6
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
9.3
14.0
3.2
3.0
4.0
15.8
16.3
14.0
vs Similar (31)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.2
3.9
4.4
24.3
24.4
24.3
vs Weaker (15)
11.6
14.6
8.6
3.5
4.7
2.4
25.2
27.1
23.3
% over line
61%
75%
48%
58%
62%
54%
63%
67%
60%
% under line
39%
25%
52%
42%
38%
46%
37%
33%
40%
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
23.4
23.4
23.3
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.2
4.0
5.7
25.5
23.0
26.3
vs Similar (27)
9.7
9.2
10.4
4.4
4.3
4.5
22.7
23.1
22.0
vs Weaker (19)
8.3
8.9
7.8
3.8
4.2
3.5
23.9
24.0
23.8
% over line
43%
48%
38%
70%
69%
71%
51%
48%
54%
% under line
57%
52%
62%
30%
31%
29%
49%
52%
46%
This opponent (Rennes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.0%
@ 1.79+4.6%
Under 9.5
44.0%
@ 1.89-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
Under
Unibet
1.89
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.1%
Under 3.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.0%
Under 21.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rennes or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied 65.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
+8.3%
43%
25%
32%
covers Rennes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Rennes or Marseille
74.2%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.0%
43%
25%
32%
covers Rennes + Marseille
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Marseille
52.1%
Avg Implied 59.4% · @ 1.59
Edge
-7.3%
43%
25%
32%
covers Draw + Marseille
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rennes over/under 0.5
Over
82.4%
@ 1.17+3.1%
Under
17.6%
@ 4.47-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Rennes over/under 1.5
Over
51.8%
@ 1.87+2.0%
Under
48.2%
@ 1.86-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.85
Rennes over/under 2.5
Over
25.2%
@ 3.82+0.8%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.23-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Rennes over/under 3.5
Over
9.9%
@ 8.57-1.0%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Marseille over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
@ 1.21-5.7%
Under
28.9%
@ 4.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.15
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marseille over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
@ 2.06-10.2%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.72+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marseille over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
@ 4.42-8.1%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.18+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.34
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marseille over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
@ 9.75-5.8%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Unibet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rennes, so a minus line means Rennes give that many goals of a start and Marseille receive them. At -1, Rennes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rennes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rennes)
Rennes -2
11.6%
@ 8.96+1.6%
Draw -2
14.9%
@ 6.66+1.4%
Marseille +2
73.5%
@ 1.18-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Rennes)
Rennes -1
26.5%
@ 4.19+5.0%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 4.20-0.1%
Marseille +1
52.1%
@ 1.58-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.64
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Rennes)
Rennes +1
73.7%
@ 1.43+11.1%
Draw +1
15.0%
@ 4.55-4.8%
Marseille -1
11.3%
@ 5.09-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Rennes)
Rennes +2
88.7%
@ 1.13+9.9%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 6.98-5.1%
Marseille -2
3.7%
@ 10.47-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.35
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rennes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
0.70
0.20
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
0.40
0.60
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.25-3.2%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.66+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.3%
@ 2.27-6.0%
Under 1.5
64.7%
@ 1.60+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.27
Under
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.11-5.4%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.15+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Under
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rennes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.7%
@ 1.78-2.5%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.94+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Rennes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
@ 5.03-4.4%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.14+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Unibet
5.00
Betano
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Rennes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
@ 10.50-5.7%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Marseille over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
@ 1.89-3.8%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.83+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Under
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Marseille over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.9%
@ 5.48-6.1%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.12+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.80
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Marseille over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 11.25-6.4%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rennes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.93
1.13
0.73
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.00
1.29
0.71
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.33
0.93
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.06
1.40
1.00
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.69
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.3%
@ 1.15+2.0%
Under 0.5
16.7%
@ 5.01-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betano
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.76-2.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 2.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Under
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
@ 3.35-8.2%
Under 2.5
80.3%
@ 1.30+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.45
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rennes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
@ 1.54-0.1%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.36+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.35
Rennes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.4%
@ 3.54-6.8%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.26+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Rennes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
@ 7.90-6.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.06+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Marseille over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
@ 1.61-9.2%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.20+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marseille over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
@ 3.96-8.0%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.21+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Marseille over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 8.75-7.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.05+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+5.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.06
Betano
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Under 5.5
91.8%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+6.1%
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+9.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
87.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+8.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
+4.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.21
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+8.0%
Over 1.5
83.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.11
+3.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+2.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.4%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+3.1%
Under 4.5
81.9%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+4.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.26
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
+6.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+8.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.8%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-0.8%
Home or Away
74.2%
1.26
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
-1.0%
Home or Draw
73.7%
1.45
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
William Hil
1.44
+8.3%
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
1.43
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+11.1%
Away +2 handicap
73.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-3.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.25
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-3.2%
Away over 0.5 goals
71.1%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
-5.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rennes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Esteban Lepaul49%
Breel Embolo29%
Mousa Tamari19%
Mohamed Kader Meite16%
Ludovic Blas14%
Nordan Mukiele12%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal10%
Seko Fofana8%
Quentin Merlin8%
Valentin Rongier6%
Sebastian Szymański6%
Mahdi Camara6%
Przemysław Frankowski5%
Anthony Rouault4%
Glen Kamara0%
Brice Samba0%
Lilian Brassier0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Alidu Seidu0%
Djaoui Cissé0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Przemysław Frankowski26%
Jérémy Jacquet24%
Anthony Rouault21%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal19%
Valentin Rongier18%
Brice Samba15%
Mahdi Camara14%
Djaoui Cissé12%
Breel Embolo12%
Sebastian Szymański12%
Mousa Tamari11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Mahamadou Nagida10%
Esteban Lepaul9%
Alidu Seidu8%
Quentin Merlin8%
Lilian Brassier7%
Ludovic Blas3%
Glen Kamara0%
Seko Fofana0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Mohamed Kader Meite0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaud Nordin30%
Mousa Tamari19%
Sebastian Szymański18%
Quentin Merlin17%
Ludovic Blas14%
Esteban Lepaul14%
Valentin Rongier12%
Przemysław Frankowski11%
Mohamed Kader Meite11%
Breel Embolo9%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal5%
Anthony Rouault4%
Alidu Seidu4%
Lilian Brassier3%
Mahdi Camara3%
Glen Kamara0%
Brice Samba0%
Seko Fofana0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Djaoui Cissé0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Esteban Lepaul34%
Mousa Tamari22%
Breel Embolo15%
Ludovic Blas11%
Mohamed Kader Meite11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Djaoui Cissé8%
Mahdi Camara6%
Alidu Seidu4%
Valentin Rongier3%
Glen Kamara0%
Przemysław Frankowski0%
Brice Samba0%
Seko Fofana0%
Sebastian Szymański0%
Lilian Brassier0%
Anthony Rouault0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Quentin Merlin0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Marseille · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mason Greenwood41%
Neal Maupay33%
Amine Gouiri33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28%
Igor Paixão27%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Hamed Junior Traorè17%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Robinio Vaz16%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Amir Murillo8%
Tim Weah8%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Nayef Aguerd5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Bilal Nadir4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Benjamin Pavard3%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Facundo Medina0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Medina32%
Quinten Timber31%
Nayef Aguerd27%
Geoffrey Kondogbia25%
Benjamin Pavard22%
Himad Abdelli22%
Amir Murillo21%
Leonardo Balerdi20%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Bilal Nadir18%
Ulisses Garcia17%
Tim Weah15%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg14%
Mason Greenwood14%
Matt O'Riley12%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Emerson Palmieri11%
Darryl Bakola10%
Gerónimo Rulli8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Amine Gouiri7%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Robinio Vaz5%
Igor Paixão5%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang2%
Neal Maupay0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matt O'Riley21%
Amine Gouiri19%
Mason Greenwood18%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang18%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Igor Paixão15%
Bilal Nadir14%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Hamed Junior Traorè11%
Robinio Vaz11%
Tim Weah10%
Darryl Bakola10%
Ethan Nwaneri9%
Benjamin Pavard8%
Amir Murillo8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Geoffrey Kondogbia6%
Emerson Palmieri6%
Angel Gomes5%
Facundo Medina4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mason Greenwood48%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang22%
Igor Paixão22%
Amine Gouiri19%
Leonardo Balerdi6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Tim Weah5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg2%
Angel Gomes0%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Benjamin Pavard0%
Amir Murillo0%
Facundo Medina0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Bilal Nadir0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Rennes's squad is €16m more valuable than Marseille's (€241m vs €225m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Rennes's attack is €4m less valuable than Marseille's (€87m vs €91m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Rennes's midfield is €24m less valuable than Marseille's (€44m vs €68m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Rennes's defence is €43m more valuable than Marseille's (€109m vs €66m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Estac Troyes
Lens
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre