Paris Saint Germain is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 72% chance of success, according to the Pythia prediction model. This is largely due to their strong home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 2.46 goals scored and just 1.08 conceded. Meanwhile, Rennes have struggled on the road, particularly against stronger opponents, averaging only 0.33 goals scored and 3.33 conceded.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4 goals and a 21% chance of 6 or more goals. The most likely scoreline is a 2-1 home win for Paris Saint Germain, with a probability of 8.6%. The model also suggests that the match will go over 1.5 goals (91.4%), over 2.5 goals (76.1%), and that Paris Saint Germain will win (72.4%). Rennes, however, have a 12% chance of winning. The home win percentage is 72%, the draw percentage is 16%, and the away win percentage is 12%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Paris Saint Germain, was expected to win with a 50 % chance, but the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Rennes, coming off a draw, and PSG, also coming off a draw, each added a goal to make the scoreline 2-2. The model’s selection for an away win was therefore missed. The model’s other picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 6.5 (97.4 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.9 %), Under 5.5 (93.1 %) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (91.8 %) missed. The most likely score was 1-1 at 10.4 %, followed by 1-2 at 9.3 % and 0-2 at 6.7 %. Rennes’ home form shows a recent draw, while PSG’s away form also shows a draw, underscoring the unexpected parity in this encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rennes win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 5.29
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.14
Marathonbet
6.05
Pinnacle
5.93
BetVictor
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Draw✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.65
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.90
Dafabet
4.80
Betano
4.80
Superbet
4.80
1xBet
4.78
Paris Saint Germain win✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.85
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
6.20
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Dafabet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rennes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.47
1.93
1.07
1.80
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (21)
1.95
1.62
2.00
1.33
1.92
1.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.57
1.60
0.60
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.03
2.35
1.18
1.92
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.21
0.96
2.29
1.07
2.10
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
@ 1.13+2.8%
Under 1.5
14.0%
@ 5.59-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.60
888Sport
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.6%
@ 1.47+1.3%
Under 2.5
34.4%
@ 2.64-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Under
10Bet
2.90
Unibet
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.7%
@ 2.19+0.3%
Under 3.5
56.3%
@ 1.68-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.30
SBO
2.28
888Sport
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Under
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.8%
@ 1.57+6.5%
No
34.2%
@ 2.29-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
No
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 8.65+4.7%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.48+3.5%
0-2
6.7%@ 11.29+2.3%
2-1
6.6%@ 14.71+3.3%
2-2 ✓
6.5%@ 13.02+2.8%
1-3
6.2%@ 12.56+2.2%
0-1
5.8%@ 10.42+1.1%
0-3
4.4%@ 17.23+1.6%
Rennes goals ↓
Paris Saint Germain goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.8%
6.7%
4.4%
2.2%
1
3.8%
10%
9.3%
6.2%
3.1%
2
3.3%
6.6%
6.5%
4.3%
2.1%
3
1.6%
3.1%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rennes goals (down), columns = Paris Saint Germain goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Rennes is 0.50 points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Rennes is 0.44 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Rennes is 0.62 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Rennes is 15.3 percentage points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average possession (54% vs 69%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rennes
For 7.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris Saint Germain
For 7.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 9.9 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rennes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
24.1
24.4
23.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.7
9.0
14.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
16.7
18.0
14.0
vs Similar (33)
10.1
10.2
10.0
4.2
4.0
4.4
24.3
24.4
24.3
vs Weaker (14)
11.4
14.7
8.9
3.5
4.5
2.8
25.2
26.7
24.1
% over line
62%
75%
50%
58%
62%
54%
66%
71%
62%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
42%
38%
46%
34%
29%
38%
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
19.2
19.7
18.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
9.9
8.8
11.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
21.9
21.5
22.2
vs Weaker (42)
9.1
9.5
8.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
18.7
19.4
18.0
% over line
42%
50%
33%
32%
35%
29%
30%
27%
33%
% under line
58%
50%
67%
68%
65%
71%
70%
73%
67%
This opponent (Rennes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lyon
4.7
Auxerre
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.5
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
@ 1.72+2.8%
Under 9.5
43.1%
@ 2.03-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.4%
@ 2.27+6.0%
Under 3.5
52.6%
@ 1.60-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.59
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.25
Bet365
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.0%
@ 2.21+8.7%
Under 21.5
49.0%
@ 1.62-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.05
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.38
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rennes or Draw✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied 40.8% · @ 2.39
Edge
+6.8%
26%
24%
50%
covers Rennes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Unibet
2.55
SBO
2.53
Rennes or Paris Saint Germain✗ Miss
74.4%
Avg Implied 82.4% · @ 1.19
Edge
-8.0%
26%
24%
50%
covers Rennes + Paris Saint Germain
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Draw or Paris Saint Germain✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied 76.8% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.2%
26%
24%
50%
covers Draw + Paris Saint Germain
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.70
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rennes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.1%
@ 1.43+0.7%
Under
33.9%
@ 2.69-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.46
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.74
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Rennes over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.4%
@ 2.94-4.2%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.49+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.24
BetVictor
3.13
Under
10Bet
3.00
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Rennes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 6.87-5.0%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.17+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.70
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Rennes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 10.65-7.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.12+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Betfair
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.9%
@ 1.19+0.2%
Under
17.1%
@ 5.71-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.09
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.70
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.8%
@ 1.57-9.3%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.57+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.76
Unibet
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.1%
@ 2.36-13.6%
Under
73.9%
@ 1.55+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
888Sport
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
BetVictor
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Paris Saint Germain over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 4.51-10.2%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.17+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
888Sport
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Unibet
1.17
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rennes, so a minus line means Rennes give that many goals of a start and Paris Saint Germain receive them. At -1, Rennes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rennes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rennes)Actual: Paris Saint Germain
Rennes -2
2.5%
@ 17.67-3.7%
Draw -2
6.1%
@ 10.02-4.9%
Paris Saint Germain +2
91.4%
@ 1.34+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Superbet
30.00
Bet365
29.00
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.30
Away
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.64
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Rennes)Actual: Paris Saint Germain
Rennes -1
8.6%
@ 8.87-3.2%
Draw -1
13.4%
@ 6.21-3.5%
Paris Saint Germain +1
78.0%
@ 1.47+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
2.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
3.80
Away
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Handicap +1 (Rennes)Actual: Rennes
Rennes +1
47.6%
@ 2.28-0.3%
Draw +1
22.6%
@ 4.34-2.6%
Paris Saint Germain -1
29.8%
@ 4.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.62
Superbet
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.38
Draw
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Away
10Bet
13.00
Marathonbet
2.31
Bet365
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Handicap +2 (Rennes)Actual: Rennes
Rennes +2
70.2%
@ 1.59+13.2%
Draw +2
16.4%
@ 4.47-3.9%
Paris Saint Germain -2
13.4%
@ 3.98-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.20
Away
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rennes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.78
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.06
0.65
0.85
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.33
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.23-6.6%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 3.86+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
10Bet
4.20
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.5%
@ 2.14-6.5%
Under 1.5
62.5%
@ 1.68+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.22
SBO
2.19
Under
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
SBO
1.70
Betano
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 4.61-5.5%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.17+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.65
Under
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rennes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.3%
@ 2.27-5.7%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.71+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
Marathonbet
2.46
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Under
10Bet
2.85
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Rennes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.2%
@ 6.74-6.2%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.13+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Rennes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 13.98-5.8%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Betano
13.00
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
Betano
1.01
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
54.2%
@ 1.74-1.9%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.22+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
10Bet
2.35
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.40
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 3.31-7.9%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.28+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 8.30-7.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rennes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
1.20
0.60
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.95
1.22
0.67
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.29
1.00
0.40
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.29
0.53
1.08
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.21
0.46
1.29
0.50
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.14-1.3%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 5.37+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Superbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.71-5.0%
Under 1.5
49.9%
@ 2.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Under
Unibet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 3.17-6.9%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.33+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.34
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rennes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 2.00-0.1%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.73+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
Rennes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 6.08-1.6%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.09+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
Superbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Rennes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 15.62-3.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.0%
@ 1.33-5.1%
Under
35.0%
@ 3.12+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Superbet
3.00
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
26.8%
@ 2.49-10.4%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.48+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.46
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 5.65-8.1%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.11+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.03
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.12
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.09
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.4%
1.34
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.64
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
1.17
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.6%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.17
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.1%
1.13
Betano
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.0%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.9%
1.19
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.09
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.14
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.0%
1.28
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
78.0%
1.27
10Bet
2.70
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.0%
1.47
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.34
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.4%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
-8.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
73.9%
1.55
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.48
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
-
+10.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.6%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.15
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
70.6%
1.49
10Bet
3.00
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
70.2%
1.59
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.53
+13.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rennes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Esteban Lepaul49%
Breel Embolo29%
Mousa Tamari19%
Mohamed Kader Meite16%
Ludovic Blas14%
Nordan Mukiele12%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal10%
Seko Fofana8%
Quentin Merlin8%
Valentin Rongier6%
Sebastian Szymański6%
Mahdi Camara6%
Przemysław Frankowski5%
Anthony Rouault4%
Glen Kamara0%
Brice Samba0%
Lilian Brassier0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Alidu Seidu0%
Djaoui Cissé0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Przemysław Frankowski26%
Jérémy Jacquet24%
Anthony Rouault21%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal19%
Valentin Rongier18%
Brice Samba15%
Mahdi Camara14%
Djaoui Cissé12%
Breel Embolo12%
Sebastian Szymański12%
Mousa Tamari11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Mahamadou Nagida10%
Esteban Lepaul9%
Alidu Seidu8%
Quentin Merlin8%
Lilian Brassier7%
Ludovic Blas3%
Glen Kamara0%
Seko Fofana0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Mohamed Kader Meite0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaud Nordin30%
Mousa Tamari19%
Sebastian Szymański18%
Quentin Merlin17%
Ludovic Blas14%
Esteban Lepaul14%
Valentin Rongier12%
Przemysław Frankowski11%
Mohamed Kader Meite11%
Breel Embolo9%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal5%
Anthony Rouault4%
Alidu Seidu4%
Lilian Brassier3%
Mahdi Camara3%
Glen Kamara0%
Brice Samba0%
Seko Fofana0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Djaoui Cissé0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Esteban Lepaul34%
Mousa Tamari22%
Breel Embolo15%
Ludovic Blas11%
Mohamed Kader Meite11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Djaoui Cissé8%
Mahdi Camara6%
Alidu Seidu4%
Valentin Rongier3%
Glen Kamara0%
Przemysław Frankowski0%
Brice Samba0%
Seko Fofana0%
Sebastian Szymański0%
Lilian Brassier0%
Anthony Rouault0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Quentin Merlin0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Paris Saint Germain · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia31%
Désiré Doué29%
Bradley Barcola26%
Gonçalo Ramos21%
Nuno Mendes16%
Senny Mayulu15%
João Neves14%
Ibrahim Mbaye11%
Vitinha11%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Dro Fernández8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Marquinhos7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
Fabián Ruiz6%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Willian Pacho5%
Ilya Zabarnyi3%
Lucas Hernández0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Zabarnyi19%
Achraf Hakimi16%
Nuno Mendes13%
Lucas Hernández11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia9%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Gonçalo Ramos7%
Marquinhos7%
Bradley Barcola7%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Senny Mayulu5%
Matvey Safonov4%
João Neves3%
Désiré Doué3%
Vitinha2%
Ousmane Dembélé0%
Willian Pacho0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Ibrahim Mbaye0%
Dro Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ousmane Dembélé27%
Achraf Hakimi26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22%
Nuno Mendes18%
Désiré Doué18%
Fabián Ruiz16%
Quentin Ndjantou14%
Vitinha13%
João Neves11%
Bradley Barcola11%
Kang-in Lee11%
Senny Mayulu10%
Warren Zaïre-Emery10%
Lucas Hernández8%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Ibrahim Mbaye4%
Willian Pacho2%
Gonçalo Ramos2%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Dro Fernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Désiré Doué26%
Gonçalo Ramos26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia24%
Bradley Barcola20%
Senny Mayulu15%
Vitinha15%
Nuno Mendes11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Kang-in Lee8%
Ibrahim Mbaye7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
João Neves6%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Warren Zaïre-Emery2%
Lucas Hernández0%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Willian Pacho0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Quentin Ndjantou0%
Dro Fernández0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Rennes's squad is €1237m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€241m vs €1477m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Rennes's attack is €551m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€87m vs €638m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Rennes's midfield is €386m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€44m vs €430m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Rennes's defence is €300m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€109m vs €409m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre