R\u00e9sidence Walferdange face US Mondorf-les-bains at home, but the model clearly favours an away win, giving the visitors a 64 % chance of triumph. The prediction stems from Mondorf’s strong away form - scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.2 against weaker opposition - versus Walferdange’s modest home output of 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 23 %. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Mondorf, carrying a 10.7 % probability. Home win probability sits at 14 %, draw at 22 %, and away win at 64 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.4 %), Over 2.5 cards (96.3 %), Away +2 handicap (95.0 %), Over 19.5 fouls (93.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3 %), and Under 5.5 (91.0 %). The recent form narrative shows Walferdange returning from a defeat while Mondorf rides a four-game winning streak, reinforcing the model’s confidence in the visitors’ victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Résidence Walferdange win
13.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains win
65.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Résidence Walferdange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
2.20
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
0.50
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.93
2.13
0.87
1.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.81
0.96
2.00
0.93
1.58
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.75
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.7%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
8.9%
0-3
7.8%
1-3
7.2%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.5%
Résidence Walferdange goals ↓
US Mondorf-les-bains goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
8.9%
11%
7.8%
4.3%
1
3.2%
9.9%
9.8%
7.2%
3.9%
2
1.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.3%
1.8%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Résidence Walferdange goals (down), columns = US Mondorf-les-bains goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Résidence Walferdange is 1.20 points worse than US Mondorf-les-bains in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Résidence Walferdange is 0.20 goals worse than US Mondorf-les-bains in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Résidence Walferdange and US Mondorf-les-bains are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Résidence Walferdange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Mondorf-les-bains
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Résidence Walferdange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.0
11.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
25.3
28.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
11.5
-
11.5
0.6
0.3
0.8
24.0
-
24.0
vs Weaker (7)
10.0
10.0
-
1.0
3.5
0.0
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
8%
8%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
92%
92%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.2%
Under 9.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
90.2%
Under 3.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.7%
Under 21.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Résidence Walferdange or Draw
34.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
21%
65%
covers Résidence Walferdange + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange or US Mondorf-les-bains
79.0%
Avg Implied -
14%
21%
65%
covers Résidence Walferdange + US Mondorf-les-bains
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or US Mondorf-les-bains
86.3%
Avg Implied -
14%
21%
65%
covers Draw + US Mondorf-les-bains
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 0.5
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 1.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5
Over
88.7%
Under
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 3.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Résidence Walferdange, so a minus line means Résidence Walferdange give that many goals of a start and US Mondorf-les-bains receive them. At -1, Résidence Walferdange must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Résidence Walferdange win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Résidence Walferdange)
Résidence Walferdange -2
1.2%
Draw -2
3.5%
US Mondorf-les-bains +2
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Résidence Walferdange)
Résidence Walferdange -1
4.7%
Draw -1
9.0%
US Mondorf-les-bains +1
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Résidence Walferdange)
Résidence Walferdange +1
34.7%
Draw +1
22.7%
US Mondorf-les-bains -1
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Résidence Walferdange)
Résidence Walferdange +2
57.3%
Draw +2
20.0%
US Mondorf-les-bains -2
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Résidence Walferdange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.00
0.50
1.25
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.42
0.93
0.36
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Résidence Walferdange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.33
0.50
0.25
1.20
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.54
1.07
0.57
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Résidence Walferdange's squad is €2m less valuable than US Mondorf-les-bains's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Résidence Walferdange and US Mondorf-les-bains have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Résidence Walferdange and US Mondorf-les-bains have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Résidence Walferdange and US Mondorf-les-bains have a similar defence value (both €0m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
RW wins
0
Draws
0
UM wins
Head-to-head
Résidence Walferdange vs US Mondorf-les-bains · H/A from RW
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →