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Rēzekne FA vs JDFS Alberts Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 1-4
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Vs
59%
23%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Rēzekne FA are the clear favourites, with a 59% chance of victory, while a draw sits at 23% and an away win at 17%. The model predicts a 3-goal encounter, most likely a 1-1 scoreline with a 10.9% probability. Home side Rēzekne FA have been prolific at home, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas JDFS Alberts, playing away against stronger teams, average only 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The single selection offered is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.4% probability. The match is expected to see a total of 3.0 goals, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 23%. The model’s picks include only the Over 1.5 selection. The final score will be 1-4, an away win.

Results analysis

The upset was stark: Rēzekne FA lost 1-4 to JDFS Alberts, ending a five-game losing streak at home. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 59% chance, but the model was wrong. The only other selection, Over 1.5, hit its 81.4% probability. The final score of 1-4 gave an away win, contradicting the model’s expectation of a home victory. The game’s outcome also defied the predicted 2-goal total, which had a 23% chance. JDFS Alberts, riding a three-game winning run, proved the stronger side, while Rēzekne FA’s recent form left them vulnerable.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
59.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W02L16L10W01LH·TUK10/04H·FS 17/04A·GRO24/04H·SAL30/04A·DIN07/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.201.331.330.503.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.502.250.501.000.503.50
vs Weaker (1)3.002.003.002.00--
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L11D02L11DH·PRO10/04A·SAL15/04H·RIG23/04A·VAL30/04H·RĪG06/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.201.000.670.502.00
vs Stronger (4)0.751.251.000.500.502.00
vs Similar (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.2%
Under 2.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
8.8%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.6%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
5.1%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
JDFS Alberts goals →
01234
05.9%3.9%2.5%0.8%0.2%
18.8%11%5.0%1.7%0.4%
29.8%10.0%5.1%1.7%0.4%
36.6%6.7%3.4%1.1%0.3%
43.3%3.3%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = JDFS Alberts goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Salaspils
0.96
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
Rēzekne FA is 0.92 points worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of average points per game (0.81 vs 1.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
Skanste
1.31
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
Rēzekne FA is 0.19 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
Rēzekne FA is 1.73 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals conceded per game (2.69 vs 0.96).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L00D01LH·FS 17/04A·GRO24/04H·SAL30/04A·DIN07/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.001.250.000.500.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.001.250.000.500.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D00D01L11DH·PRO10/04A·SAL15/04H·RIG23/04A·VAL30/04H·RĪG06/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.400.670.330.000.50
vs Stronger (4)0.500.501.000.500.000.50
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L10W00DH·FS 17/04A·GRO24/04H·SAL30/04A·DIN07/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.500.500.501.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.501.000.500.500.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L11D01L00DH·PRO10/04A·SAL15/04H·RIG23/04A·VAL30/04H·RĪG06/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.330.330.501.50
vs Stronger (4)0.250.750.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
RF wins
0
Draws
0
JA wins

Head-to-head

Rēzekne FA vs JDFS Alberts · H/A from RF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/22ADinamo Rīga Vs RF1-0
30/04/22HRF Vs Saldus SS/Leevon1-0
24/04/22AGrobiņa Vs RF6-1
17/04/22HRF Vs FS Jelgava0-2
10/04/22HRF Vs Tukums II3-2

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/22HJA Vs Rīgas FS II1-1
30/04/22AValmiera II Vs JA2-0
23/04/22HJA Vs Riga FC II1-1
15/04/22ASalaspils Vs JA2-1
10/04/22HJA Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.20
HomeWLW2.00
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%67%0%
AVG goals3.202.674.00
Over 1.5 %60%67%50%
Over 2.5 %40%33%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.001.330.50
Conceded2.201.333.50
BTTS40%33%50%
Clean Sheet20%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLD1.00
HomeWDD1.67
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%33%0%
AVG goals2.001.672.50
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %20%0%50%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.801.000.50
Conceded1.200.672.00
BTTS60%67%50%
Clean Sheet20%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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