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Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Vs
39%
27%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Rēzekne FA a 39% win probability against Mārupe in the Latvia: 1. Liga on 2026-07-25, with 27% for the draw and 35% for Mārupe. The model estimates around 3.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (81%).

Results analysis

Rēzekne FA finished 1-2 against Mārupe (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 39% home win, 27% draw and 35% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (81%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe win✓ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W21W12L50W21W06L12L22D34L01LH·RIG31/08A·TUK13/09H·SKA21/09A·AUG27/09H·MĀR05/10A·RIG18/10H·LEE26/10A·SMI01/11H·PRO08/11A·SMI19/07
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.201.141.711.442.62
vs Stronger (14)0.862.290.712.001.002.57
vs Similar (13)1.772.381.671.501.863.14
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.001.001.501.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L21W01L01L12L00D51W01L01L04LA·RĪG01/09H·JDF14/09A·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.471.131.330.931.60
vs Stronger (4)0.502.000.501.500.502.50
vs Similar (12)1.331.671.801.201.002.00
vs Weaker (14)0.931.140.881.381.000.83
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.6%
1-2 ✓
8.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
5.9%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
Mārupe goals →
01234
06.1%6.2%5.3%2.6%0.9%
16.6%12%8.2%3.9%1.4%
25.9%8.6%6.3%3.0%1.1%
33.1%4.4%3.2%1.6%0.6%
41.2%1.7%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = Mārupe goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
Metta / LU
1.84
Super Nova 2
1.84
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Valmiera / BSS
1.40
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Rēzekne FA is 0.04 points worse than Mārupe in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Metta / LU
2.19
Super Nova 2
2.19
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Tukums II
1.42
Skanste
1.38
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Rēzekne FA is 0.23 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Metta / LU
1.26
Super Nova 2
1.26
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Tukums II
2.31
Rēzekne FA is 0.92 goals worse than Mārupe in terms of goals conceded per game (2.19 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (23)
€0m
SN2 (27)
€0m
L/P (38)
€0m
RFI (27)
€0m
TI (30)
€0m
JA (32)
€0m
RM (29)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe · H/A from RF
DateH/AGameScore
05/10/25HRF Vs Mārupe2-1
24/05/25AMārupe Vs RF1-1
19/10/24AMārupe Vs RF1-1
30/06/24HRF Vs Mārupe1-1

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26ASmiltene Vs RF1-0
08/11/25HRF Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-4
01/11/25ASmiltene Vs RF2-2
26/10/25HRF Vs Leevon / PPK1-2
18/10/25ARiga Mariners Vs RF6-0
05/10/25HRF Vs Mārupe2-1
27/09/25AAugšdaugava Vs RF0-5
21/09/25HRF Vs Skanste1-2
13/09/25ATukums II Vs RF1-2
31/08/25HRF Vs Riga FC II3-2

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26HMĀR Vs Metta / LU0-4
08/11/25HMĀR Vs Ogre United0-1
01/11/25AJFK Ventspils Vs MĀR1-0
25/10/25HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-1
19/10/25ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR0-0
05/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR2-1
28/09/25HMĀR Vs Skanste0-1
20/09/25ARiga FC II Vs MĀR1-0
14/09/25HMĀR Vs JDFS Alberts2-1
01/09/25ARīgas FS II Vs MĀR4-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.88
HomeWLWLL1.00
AwayWWLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals3.623.164.08
Over 1.5 %86%76%96%
Over 2.5 %68%64%72%
Over 3.5 %40%28%52%
Scored1.040.961.12
Conceded2.582.202.96
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet12%20%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.28
HomeWLWLL1.58
AwayLLLDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.542.232.88
Over 1.5 %64%65%62%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %24%12%38%
Scored1.041.150.92
Conceded1.501.081.96
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet26%35%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS412
100%
3.0
122+10
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.5
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU410
75%
2.5
273+24
7.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0006.80.8
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK39
100%
3.0
52+3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.7
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts48
50%
2.0
73+4
2.5
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.8
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners37
67%
2.3
83+5
3.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.0
-
6SkansteSkanste46
50%
1.5
108+2
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.52.0
-
7SmilteneSmiltene46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.5
-
8MārupeMārupe56
40%
1.2
611-5
3.4
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 254
20%
0.8
58-3
2.6
100%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II44
25%
1.0
48-4
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II44
25%
1.0
514-9
4.8
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.5
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II43
25%
0.8
719-12
6.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.84.8
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA40
0%
0.0
310-7
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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