Metta / LU is the clear favourite to win, with the model predicting an away win with a 73% probability. This is largely due to their opponent, Rēzekne FA, struggling at home, particularly against stronger opponents. Rēzekne FA's home form is weak, averaging 1 goal scored and conceded per match.
The expected total number of goals is 3.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 0-2, with a 9.5% probability.
Rēzekne FA's away opponents tend to score more and concede more, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Metta / LU, on the other hand, have been scoring well and conceding less when playing away from home.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 88.4% probability, Away win with a 73% probability, and Over 2.5 with a 70.2% probability. Rēzekne FA has a 10% chance of winning, a 17% chance of drawing, and a 73% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Metta / LU secured a 0-2away win, extending their two-game winning run. The model had chosen an away win with a 73 % probability, and that call was correct. The final score matched the most likely 0-2 outcome, which carried a 9.5 % chance. Every suggested selection hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 %, Under 7.5 at 96.8 %, Away +2 handicap at 96.4 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 94.6 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 93.1 %, and Home under 2.5 goals at 92.7 %. The model’s confidence in the low-scoring, away-side victory was well founded.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
10.4%
Avg Implied 4.2% · @ 21.56
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
29.00
William Hil
23.00
1xBet
22.00
Marathonbet
22.00
10Bet
20.00
Draw✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied 8.8% · @ 10.33
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
14.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
William Hil
10.00
Metta / LU win✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied 87.0% · @ 1.05
Edge
-14.0%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.06
Dafabet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
10Bet
1.04
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rēzekne FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.23
1.21
1.71
1.38
2.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.89
0.25
1.50
1.00
2.20
vs Similar (14)
1.79
2.14
2.00
2.14
1.57
2.14
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.86
0.67
1.00
1.50
4.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.90
2.33
1.73
1.33
2.07
vs Stronger (22)
1.77
1.95
2.18
1.82
1.36
2.09
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.4%
@ 1.02-6.0%
Under 1.5
11.6%
@ 17.00+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.02
Under
1xBet
17.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.2%
@ 1.08-14.6%
Under 2.5
29.8%
@ 6.00+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.0%
@ 1.29-21.3%
Under 3.5
51.0%
@ 3.08+21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
2.48
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.0%
@ 1.67+3.2%
No
42.0%
@ 2.03-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
No
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 ✓
9.5%@ 11.80+6.1%
1-2
9.1%@ 12.80+5.9%
0-3
8.4%@ 8.78+3.9%
1-3
8.1%@ 10.10+4.1%
1-1
7.5%@ 26.20+6.0%
0-1
6.4%@ 21.40+4.5%
0-4
5.6%@ 8.04+0.6%
1-4
5.4%@ 9.46+1.1%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
Metta / LU goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
6.4%
9.5%
8.4%
5.6%
1
1.9%
7.5%
9.1%
8.1%
5.4%
2
1.2%
3.3%
4.4%
3.9%
2.6%
3
0.4%
1.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.8%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = Metta / LU goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Rēzekne FA is 2.67 points worse than Metta / LU in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Rēzekne FA is 5.17 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 5.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Rēzekne FA is 2.50 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rēzekne FA or Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 13.1% · @ 7.32
Edge
+14.0%
10%
17%
73%
covers Rēzekne FA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
11.00
William Hil
7.50
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.50
Rēzekne FA or Metta / LU✓ Hit
83.4%
Avg Implied 92.8% · @ 1.03
Edge
-9.4%
10%
17%
73%
covers Rēzekne FA + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Draw or Metta / LU✓ Hit
89.6%
Avg Implied 94.2% · @ 1.01
Edge
-4.6%
10%
17%
73%
covers Draw + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.02
Betano
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.6%
@ 1.65+6.5%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.03-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Under
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.9%
@ 4.30+3.6%
Under
75.1%
@ 1.16-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 10.00-2.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Rēzekne FA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.1%
Under
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
49.9%
@ 1.36-17.0%
Under
50.1%
@ 2.74+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.74
Metta / LU over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
27.9%
@ 1.48-34.0%
Under
72.1%
@ 2.40+34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rēzekne FA, so a minus line means Rēzekne FA give that many goals of a start and Metta / LU receive them. At -1, Rēzekne FA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rēzekne FA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Metta / LU
Rēzekne FA -2
0.9%
Draw -2
2.7%
Metta / LU +2
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Metta / LU
Rēzekne FA -1
3.6%
Draw -1
6.8%
Metta / LU +1
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Metta / LU
Rēzekne FA +1
27.0%
Draw +1
20.3%
Metta / LU -1
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Draw
Rēzekne FA +2
47.3%
@ 3.58+22.7%
Draw +2
20.6%
@ 5.00+3.0%
Metta / LU -2
32.1%
@ 1.53-25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.58
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.53
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.36
0.64
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.00
0.75
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.64
0.71
0.57
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.33
1.07
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (22)
0.86
1.05
1.18
1.36
0.55
0.73
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.06-11.1%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 7.60+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.80
William Hil
7.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 1.43-22.0%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 2.47+22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.60
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
10Bet
2.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 2.25-24.6%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.52+24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
William Hil
2.30
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.15
Under
Betfair
1.60
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
26.4%
@ 2.82-5.8%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.34+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.82
Under
1xBet
1.34
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 9.10-4.8%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
65.9%
@ 1.12-16.1%
Under
34.1%
@ 5.10+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.10
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.9%
@ 1.63-31.3%
Under
75.1%
@ 2.09+31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Under
1xBet
2.09
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 2.87-24.8%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.33+24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.87
Under
1xBet
1.33
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.86
1.07
0.62
1.38
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.25
0.75
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.50
1.29
1.57
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.00
0.67
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (22)
0.91
0.91
1.00
0.45
0.82
1.36
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.57
0.33
1.67
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.0%
@ 1.02-6.6%
Under 0.5
16.0%
@ 9.90+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.02
Under
1xBet
9.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.1%
@ 1.19-20.0%
Under 1.5
42.9%
@ 4.00+20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.19
Under
1xBet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.8%
@ 1.57-29.2%
Under 2.5
71.2%
@ 2.16+29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.4%
@ 2.38+1.3%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.47-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.47
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 7.85-1.5%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.85
Under
1xBet
1.05
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 11.00-6.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
75.2%
@ 1.12-6.8%
Under
24.8%
@ 5.10+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.10
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.7%
@ 1.41-20.7%
Under
56.3%
@ 2.55+20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.55
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 2.26-23.0%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.54+23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.26
Under
1xBet
1.54
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.5%
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+18.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
89.6%
1.01
William Hil
1.02
Betano
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
83.4%
1.03
William Hil
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
-9.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.7%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-11.1%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.1%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away win
73.0%
1.05
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.06
Dafabet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
10Bet
1.04
-14.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.2%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.6%
✗ Miss
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Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →