Rēzekne FA’s recent five matches have all been losses, with a 1-6 defeat to Valmiera / BSS leaving the home side struggling to find the net, scoring only 0.5 goals per game while conceding 2.75 against stronger opponents. Rīga FS II, on the other hand, has managed one win in its last five, scoring 1.54 goals per match and conceding 2.77 when facing weaker teams. The model therefore picks an away win, with a 43% chance of Rīga FS II triumphing, 35% for a home win and 22% for a draw. The expected total is four goals, yet the most likely total is 6 or more, with a 21% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, at 8.2%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (95.1%), Over 1.5 (91.3%), Under 6.5 (89.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.7%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (84.3%) and Away +2 handicap (81.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rēzekne FA win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rēzekne FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.43
1.20
2.07
1.33
2.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.62
0.50
2.75
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (15)
1.67
2.13
1.75
2.12
1.57
2.14
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.86
0.67
1.00
1.50
4.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.73
2.17
1.08
1.56
2.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
0.67
3.00
0.75
1.60
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
2.19
1.75
1.25
1.54
2.77
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.3%
Under 1.5
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.6%
Under 2.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.9%
Under 3.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
74.9%
No
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.3%
2-1
7.0%
1-3
5.4%
2-3
5.0%
3-2
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
3.2%
4.1%
2.8%
1.5%
1
2.8%
8.2%
7.7%
5.4%
2.8%
2
3.4%
7.0%
7.3%
5.0%
2.6%
3
2.1%
4.4%
4.6%
3.2%
1.6%
4
1.0%
2.1%
2.2%
1.5%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Rēzekne FA is 0.50 points worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Rēzekne FA is 0.83 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Rēzekne FA is 1.17 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 4.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rēzekne FA or Draw
57.4%
Avg Implied -
35%
22%
43%
covers Rēzekne FA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA or Rīgas FS II
77.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
22%
43%
covers Rēzekne FA + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rīgas FS II
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
22%
43%
covers Draw + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5
Over
87.5%
Under
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rēzekne FA, so a minus line means Rēzekne FA give that many goals of a start and Rīgas FS II receive them. At -1, Rēzekne FA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rēzekne FA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rēzekne FA)
Rēzekne FA -2
8.3%
Draw -2
10.6%
Rīgas FS II +2
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rēzekne FA)
Rēzekne FA -1
18.9%
Draw -1
16.3%
Rīgas FS II +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rēzekne FA)
Rēzekne FA +1
57.4%
Draw +1
18.0%
Rīgas FS II -1
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rēzekne FA)
Rēzekne FA +2
75.4%
Draw +2
12.9%
Rīgas FS II -2
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.40
0.67
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
0.58
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
2.00
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.23
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.40
0.80
1.40
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.25
1.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.12
1.62
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.17
0.50
0.89
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
1.19
1.25
0.62
0.92
1.54
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
JFK Ventspils