Rēzekne FA’s recent five-game slide and Valmiera / BSS’s five-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting an average of 3.5 goals. The most probable outcome is an away win, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-2, a 9.6 % chance. Home form shows Rēzekne FA scoring only 0.67 goals per match and conceding 1.5 against stronger opponents, while Valmiera / BSS, playing away, averages 3.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against weaker teams. The model favours an away win with probabilities of 18 % for a home win, 21 % for a draw, and 61 % for an away win. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.6 %), Under 7.5 (97.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Home under 1.5 HT goals (96.0 %), Under 6.5 (93.4 %), Away +2 handicap (92.5 %), and Home under 1.5 2H goals (92.1 %).
Results analysis
Rēzekne FA’s five-match losing streak continued as Valmiera / BSS extended their five-game winning run with a 1-6 victory. The model’s favourite, an away win at 61%, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted 1-6 outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2% hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3% hit, Under 7.5 at 97.3% hit, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.5% hit, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 95.1% hit, Home under 1.5 2H goals at 92.6% hit, and Away +2 handicap at 92.5% hit. Only the Under 6.5 pick at 93.4% missed. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, confirming its strong form assessment.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS win✓ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rēzekne FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.27
1.13
1.73
1.33
2.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.00
0.25
1.50
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (15)
1.67
2.13
1.75
2.12
1.57
2.14
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.86
0.67
1.00
1.50
4.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.10
2.62
1.12
2.43
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
3.41
1.00
3.30
0.80
3.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
0-2
7.9%
1-3
7.3%
0-1
6.0%
0-3
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
Rēzekne FA goals ↓
Valmiera / BSS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
6.0%
7.9%
6.0%
3.5%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.6%
7.3%
4.2%
2
2.2%
5.1%
5.8%
4.5%
2.6%
3
0.9%
2.1%
2.4%
1.8%
1.0%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rēzekne FA goals (down), columns = Valmiera / BSS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Rēzekne FA is 3.00 points worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Rēzekne FA is 3.00 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 3.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Rēzekne FA is 2.33 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rēzekne FA or Draw✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
18%
21%
61%
covers Rēzekne FA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA or Valmiera / BSS✓ Hit
79.0%
Avg Implied -
18%
21%
61%
covers Rēzekne FA + Valmiera / BSS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Valmiera / BSS✓ Hit
81.7%
Avg Implied -
18%
21%
61%
covers Draw + Valmiera / BSS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.9%
Under
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rēzekne FA, so a minus line means Rēzekne FA give that many goals of a start and Valmiera / BSS receive them. At -1, Rēzekne FA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rēzekne FA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Valmiera / BSS
Rēzekne FA -2
2.3%
Draw -2
5.1%
Valmiera / BSS +2
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Valmiera / BSS
Rēzekne FA -1
7.5%
Draw -1
10.9%
Valmiera / BSS +1
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Valmiera / BSS
Rēzekne FA +1
39.3%
Draw +1
21.2%
Valmiera / BSS -1
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rēzekne FA)Actual: Valmiera / BSS
Rēzekne FA +2
60.5%
Draw +2
18.3%
Valmiera / BSS -2
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.33
0.60
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valmiera / BSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.44
0.50
1.21
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.82
0.47
1.90
0.30
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.7%
Under 0.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.2%
Under 1.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.7%
Under 2.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rēzekne FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.27
0.80
1.13
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.12
1.62
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.19
0.62
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.53
1.40
0.50
1.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
87.4%
Under 0.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.6%
Under 1.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 2H goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →